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H. B. Havenith I. Torgoev A. Meleshko Y. Alioshin A. Torgoev G. Danneels 《Landslides》2006,3(2):137-147
Mailuu-Suu is a former uranium mining area in Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia) at the northern border of the Fergana Basin. This region is particularly prone to landslide hazards and, during the last 50 years, has experienced severe landslide disasters in the vicinity of numerous nuclear waste tailing dams. Due to its critical situation, the Mailuu-Suu region was and still is the target area for several risk assessment projects. This paper provides a brief review of previous studies, past landslide events and a discussion on possible future risk scenarios. Various aspects of landslide hazard and related impacts in the Mailuu-Suu Valley are analyzed in detail: landslide susceptibility, historical evolution of landslide activity, size-frequency relationship, river damming and flooding as well as impacts on inhabited areas and nuclear waste storage zones. The study was carried out with standard remote sensing tools for the processing of satellite imagery and the construction of digital elevation models (DEMs). The processed inputs were combined on a GIS platform with digital landslide distribution maps of 1962, 1977, and 2003, digitized geological and geographic maps, and information from landslide monitoring and geophysical investigation.As a result, various types of landslide susceptibility maps based on conditional analysis (CA) are presented as well as predictions of future landslide activity and related damming potential and their possible impact on the population. For some risk scenarios, remediation and prevention measures are suggested. 相似文献
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H.-B. Havevith D. Jongmans K. Abdrakhmatov P. Trefois D. Delvaux I.A. Torgoev 《Surveys in Geophysics》2000,21(4):351-370
In summer 1998, a geophysical survey including seismic profilesand electrical tomography has been carried out in the Suusamyr valley, Kyrgyzstan. The scope wasto investigate surface effects induced by the Ms = 7.3 Suusamyr earthquake, the 19th of August, 1992. Inthis paper, special attention is paid to the case study of a debris slide triggered by the earthquake.Seismic data are analysed by P-wave refraction technique and by surface wave inversion. Electrical tomographicprofiles are processed by 2D-inversion.Using geotechnical and geological information, P-velocity modelsand resistivity sections are interpreted in terms of geological materials, in order to build a geological3D model. On the basis of the latter, we carried out static finite element computations as well as staticand pseudo-static calculations with Janbus method. Newmark displacement was computed, considering or notthe influence of the shallow soft deposits. The results are compared to the real displacementobserved in the field and conclusions are drawn about the mechanism of the landslide. 相似文献
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Romy Schlögel Isakbek Torgoev Cédric De Marneffe Hans‐Balder Havenith 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(12):1658-1669
There is a strong possibility that environmental change (whether climate or land use) will be manifest as changes in the size–frequency distribution of landslides. Here, evidence is presented for this from western Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia. Remote sensing and spatial analysis have been applied to map mass movements in the central part of the Maily‐Say Valley and to detect recent landslide activations. The evolution of landslide activity over the past 50 years has been analysed on the basis of pre‐existing landslide maps and new analyses of aerial photographs as well as Quickbird images. Five inventories were produced for the years 1962 (based on the existing map of 1962 and aerial photographs of 1962), 1984 (based on the existing map of 1977 and aerial photographs of 1984), 1996 (based on aerial photographs of 1996), 2002 (based on the existing map of 2003 and Quickbird imagery of 2002) and 2007 (based on Quickbird imagery of 2007). The geomorphologic features contained in the catalogues represent the landslide bodies observed from remote imagery of the corresponding year. Mapped landslides are generally considered as the result of a series of slope failure events. Size–frequency analyses applied to the five landslide inventories show that both the number and size of unstable slopes increased from 1962 (162 objects) to 2007 (208 objects) and the power‐law exponent decreased over time. This changing power‐law exponent may indicate that landslide‐related hazards are increasing. This tendency is documented in more detail for two active landslide zones, one in the main valley and one located to the west of it. Landslide detection methods were used to assist the evolution of slope instabilities. Choosing appropriate thresholds, the image subtraction method based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) allowed accurate detection of new sliding activation in these two zones. This confirmed the results of the more extensive survey that there is a systematic shift in power law exponents and size–frequency distributions for Central Asian landslides. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A 2D elasto-dynamic modelling of the pure topographic seismic response is performed for six models with a total length of around 23.0 km. These models are reconstructed from the real topographic settings of the landslide-prone slopes situated in the Mailuu-Suu River Valley, Southern Kyrgyzstan. The main studied parameter is the Arias Intensity (Ia, m/sec), which is applied in the GIS-based Newmark method to regionally map the seismically-induced landslide susceptibility. This method maps the Ia values via empirical attenuation laws and our studies investigate a potential to include topographic input into them. Numerical studies analyse several signals with varying shape and changing central frequency values. All tests demonstrate that the spectral amplification patterns directly affect the amplification of the Ia values. These results let to link the 2D distribution of the topographically amplified Ia values with the parameter called as smoothed curvature. The amplification values for the low-frequency signals are better correlated with the curvature smoothed over larger spatial extent, while those values for the high-frequency signals are more linked to the curvature with smaller smoothing extent. The best predictions are provided by the curvature smoothed over the extent calculated according to Geli’s law. The sample equations predicting the Ia amplification based on the smoothed curvature are presented for the sinusoid-shape input signals. These laws cannot be directly implemented in the regional Newmark method, as 3D amplification of the Ia values addresses more problem complexities which are not studied here. Nevertheless, our 2D results prepare the theoretical framework which can potentially be applied to the 3D domain and, therefore, represent a robust basis for these future research targets. 相似文献
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