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This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ 3). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ 3 time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ 3 data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ 3 predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ 3 time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ 3 reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR. 相似文献
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Jacek A. Majorowicz 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,147(1):1-24
The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the ramp function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the step function model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth. 相似文献
5.
Ewa GłOwacka 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(2):121-132
Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland. 相似文献
6.
Leonard Boszke Artur Kowalski Witold Szczuciński Grzegorz Rachlewicz Stanisław Lorenc Jerzy Siepak 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(4):527-536
The 26 December 2004 tsunami covered significant portion of a coastal zone with a blanket of potentially contaminated sediments. In this report are presented results on mercury concentrations in sediments deposited by the tsunami in a coastal zone of Thailand. Since the total mercury concentrations are insufficient to assess mercury mobility and bioavailability in sediment, its fractionation was applied. Sediments were sampled within 50 days after the event and analyzed by sequential extraction method. The procedure of sequential extraction involved five subsequent stages performed with solutions of chloroform, deionized water, 0.5 M HCl, 0.2 M NaOH, and aqua regia. The mean concentration of total mercury in sediments was 119 ± 50 ng g−1 dry mass (range 66–230). The fractionation revealed that mercury is mainly bound to the least bioavailable sulphides 75 ± 6% (range 62–86), organomercury compounds 14 ± 7% (range 4–26), and humic matter 9 ± 7% (range 1–27). The lowest contributions bring fractions of water-soluble mercury 0.8 ± 1.0% (range 0.1–3.6) and acid soluble mercury 0.9 ± 0.5% (range 0.2–2.1). Although, the total mercury content is similar in a reference sample and in the tsunami sediments, the highly toxic organomercury fraction contribution is higher in the latter. The results were compared with chemical and sedimentological properties of the sediments but no significant correlations were obtained between them. 相似文献
7.
A new type of gold mineralisation containing minor amounts of platinum and palladium has been found proximal to the secondary redox interface located below the Cu-Ag Kupferschiefer orebody of the Polkowice-Sieroszowice mine in the south-western part of the Lubin-Sieroszowice district, Poland. This deposit can be classified as redbed-type gold. Our study shows that gold, platinum and palladium occur in secondary red-coloured sections of the basal Zechstein sedimentary rocks and in the uppermost Weissliegendes sandstone. Noble metal mineralisation occurs within an average interval of 0.22 m, which lies directly below the copper ores. The average grade of the horizon is 2.25 ppm Au, 0.138 ppm Pt and 0.082 ppm Pd with a metal content of several tens of tonnes of gold. A transition zone has been recognised between the gold-bearing horizon and the copper deposit. This transition zone is characterised by the presence of low grades of copper (<0.2 wt%) and elevated gold contents (>0.5 ppm). Native gold accompanied by electrum, mercury-bearing gold, haematite, covellite, chalcocite, bornite and chalcopyrite has been identified in the gold-bearing horizon. In some sections, Pd-arsenides, tetra-auricupride, Co-arsenides, clausthalite, tennantite, digenite, yarrowite, spionkopite and galena have also been noted. 相似文献
8.
野外调查表明 ,口泉断裂断错了断面附近的 3级地貌面 ,包括大同盆地西侧全新世形成的洪积扇后缘及位于洪积扇冲沟内的Ⅰ ,Ⅱ级阶地。其中冲沟内Ⅱ级阶地为剥蚀阶地 ,Ⅰ级阶地为堆积阶地 ,Ⅰ级阶地面的地层时代距今 2 52ka。在该断裂的悟道及上黄庄 2个地点开挖的大探槽表明 ,在距今 1 2 3万年以来该断裂曾发生 4次古地震事件 ,其中 3次分别发生在接近距今 2 52 ,5 6 8,13 73ka。另一次古地震事件发生在距今 6 76~ 10 82ka。这些数据有可能反映了口泉断裂具备准周期的强震活动。这 4次古地震事件的平均间隔约为 3 74ka ,最新一次古地震与上一次事件的时间间隔约为 3 16ka。 2个大探槽各次事件的平均最小同震垂直位移为 1 8m。这些资料对重新评价口泉断裂未来的地震潜势具有重要意义 相似文献
9.
Milena B. Fernandes Marie-Alexandrine Sicre Anne Boireau Jacek Tronczynski 《Estuaries and Coasts》1997,20(2):281-290
Dissolved and particulate hydrocarbons of biogenic origin were investigated for the first time in surface waters along the Seine River and its estuary. They comprise n-alkanes (n-ALKs) and diagenetic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Samples were collected in three different sections of the estuary: the riverine zone, the mixing zone, and the marine zone. At the river mouth, two mooring stations were used for the collection of samples over tidal cycles. Total particulate n-ALK concentrations ranged from 31 ng 1?1 to 2,918 ng 1?1, or 5 μg g?1 dry ng 1?1, or 2 μg g?1 of SM. Concentrations varied with the SM load and could be related to sedimentation and estuarine mixing. The sources of the n-ALKs were different in each zone of the estuary. The dissolved n-ALKs displayed lower concentrations than the particulate phase, varying from 136 ng 1?1 to 344 ng 1?1, while biogenic dissolved PAHs were almost absent. 相似文献
10.
Karolina Kośmińska Frank S. Spear Jarosław Majka Karol Faehnrich Maciej Manecki Karsten Piepjohn Winfried K. Dallmann 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(5):471-493
Quartz-in-garnet inclusion barometry integrated with trace element thermometry and calculated phase relations is applied to mylonitized schists of the Pinkie unit cropping out on the island of Prins Karls Forland, western part of the Svalbard Archipelago. This approach combines conventional and novel techniques and allows deciphering of the pressure–temperature (P–T) evolution of mylonitic rocks, for which the P–T conditions could not have been easily deciphered using traditional methods. The results obtained suggest that rocks of the Pinkie unit were metamorphosed under amphibolite facies conditions at 8–10 kbar and 560–630°C and mylonitized at ~500 to 550°C and 9–11 kbar. The P–T results are coupled with in-situ Th–U-total Pb monazite dating, which records amphibolite facies metamorphism at c. 359–355 Ma. This is the very first evidence of late Devonian–early Carboniferous metamorphism in Svalbard and it implies that the Ellesmerian Orogeny on Svalbard was associated with metamorphism up to amphibolite facies conditions. Thus, it can be concluded that the Ellesmerian collision between the Franklinian margin of Laurentia and Pearya and Svalbard caused not only commonly accepted brittle deformation and weak greenschist facies metamorphism, but also a burial and deformation of rock complexes at much greater depths at elevated temperatures. 相似文献