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Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave energy flux. In the initial tests, the ECMWF model and the statistical models are compared directly. The statistical models do better at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1-5 h range. The ECMWF model is superior at longer horizons. The convergence point, at which the two methods achieve comparable degrees of accuracy, is in the area of 6 h. By implication, the physics-based model captures the underlying signals at lower frequencies, while the statistical models capture relationships over shorter intervals. Further tests are run in which the forecasts from the ECMWF model are used as inputs in regressions and neural networks. The combined models yield more accurate forecasts than either one individually. 相似文献
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Claus Gebhardt Jean-Raymond Bidlot Johannes Gemmrich Susanne Lehner Andrey Pleskachevsky Wolfgang Rosenthal 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(6-7):839-852
This article investigates the penetration of ocean waves into the marginal ice zone (MIZ), observed by satellite, and likewise provides a basis for the future cross-validation of respective models. To this end, synthetic aperture radar images from the TerraSAR-X satellite (TS-X) and numerical simulations of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used. The focus is an event of swell waves, developed during a storm passage in the Atlantic, penetrating deeply into the MIZ off the coast of Eastern Greenland in February 2013. The TS-X scene which is the basis for this investigation extends from the ice-free open ocean to solid ice. The variation of the peak wavelength is analysed and potential sources of variability are discussed. We find an increase in wavelength which is consistent with the spatial dispersion of deep water waves, even within the ice-covered region. 相似文献
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Comparison of wind and wave measurements and models in the Western Mediterranean Sea 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Fabrice Ardhuin Luciana Bertotti Jean-Raymond Bidlot Luigi Cavaleri Valentina Filipetto Jean-Michel Lefevre Paul Wittmann 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(3-4):526-541
We have hindcast the wind and wave conditions in the Mediterranean Sea for two one month periods. Four different meteorological models and three different wave models have been used. The results have been compared with satellite and buoy wind and wave observations.Several conclusions concerning both the instruments and the models have been derived. The quality of both wind and wave results has been assessed. Close to the coasts high resolution, nested wave models are required for sufficient reliability.A wave threshold analysis suggests a sufficient reliability only off the coast, with a substantial decrease for low wave heights. 相似文献
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Joanna Staneva Victor Alari Øyvind Breivik Jean-Raymond Bidlot Kristian Mogensen 《Ocean Dynamics》2017,67(1):81-101
The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state-dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water-level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state-dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25–27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5–7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20–30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water-level and current predictions. 相似文献
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Bonaduce Antonio Staneva Joanna Grayek Sebastian Bidlot Jean-Raymond Breivik Øyvind 《Ocean Dynamics》2020,70(12):1547-1569
Ocean Dynamics - The contribution of sea-state-induced processes to sea-level variability is investigated through ocean-wave coupled simulations. These experiments are performed with a... 相似文献
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