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Earthquake Forecasting Using Hidden Markov Models 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Daniel W. Chambers Jenny A. Baglivo John E. Ebel Alan L. Kafka 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(4):625-639
This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock
seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock within 1,
5, and 10 days in the entire study region or in specific subregions and are based on the observations available at the forecast
time, namely the interevent times and locations of the previous mainshocks and the elapsed time since the most recent one.
Hidden Markov models have been applied to many problems, including earthquake classification; this is the first application
to earthquake forecasting. 相似文献
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An αΩ dynamo is considered responsible for magnetic activity in late K/early M main sequence stars, which is expected to be enhanced in later types as the surface convection zone deepens. At about spectral type M3, where the star presumably becomes fully convective, the magnetic field is theorized to change in character, switching to a more uniform, turbulence‐generated surface field. As a consequence, the nature of activity is expected to change at later spectral types. In field stars, age, mass, rotation and perhaps metallicity play a role in determining the activity level, but the effects are difficult to disentangle. Therefore, open clusters with a more homogeneous sample can provide valuable information on the dynamo operation and magnetic activity of lower main sequence stars. We present preliminary results of our spectroscopic study for activity indicators among the lower main sequence stars of the intermediate age (700 My) open cluster Praesepe. Chromospheric activity as manifested by the presence/absence of Hα in late K/M stars is presented, and other activity indicators are discussed. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
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