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Uncertainty assessment in quantitative rockfall risk assessment 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Xueliang Wang Paolo Frattini G. B. Crosta Luqing Zhang Federico Agliardi Serena Lari Zhifa Yang 《Landslides》2014,11(4):711-722
This study shows a quantitative rockfall risk assessment (QRA) for a slope of the Feifeng Mountain (China), including an explicit assessment of the uncertainties. For rockfall risk analysis, the annual probability of occurrence, reach probability, temporal–spatial probability and vulnerability of tourists were calculated for both dry and rainy day conditions. The resulting individual risk for exposed people visiting the historical site can be considered as acceptable for all scenarios, whereas the overall societal risk lies within the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) zone and therefore requires some mitigation actions. For the explicit assessment of uncertainty, an error propagation technique (first-order second moment (FOSM)) was adopted, starting from expert knowledge heuristic estimations of the coefficient of variation for each component of the risk analysis procedure. As a result, coefficients of variation of the calculated risk were obtained, ranging from 48 to 132 %, thus demonstrating the importance of accounting for uncertainty in rockfall risk modelling. A multi-criteria methodology is also proposed for the assessment of the standard deviation of the parameters adopted for the stochastic rockfall run-out model. 相似文献
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Yousef Ghanbari Ardeshir Hezarkhani Mohammad Ataei Kaveh Pazand 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2014,83(4):457-465
One of the major strengths of a GIS is the ability to integrate and combine multiple layers of geoscience data for producing mineral potential maps showing favorable areas for mineral exploration. Once the data is prepared properly, the GIS, jointly with other statistical and geostatistical software packages, can be used to manipulate and visualize the data in order to produce a mineral prospectivity map. Many spatial modeling techniques can be employed to produce mineral potential maps. This paper demonstrates a technique to define favorable areas for REE mineralization with AHP technique using geological, geochemical, geophysical, alteration and faults density spatial data in the Kerman-Kashmar Tectonic Zone of central Iran. The AHP is a powerful and flexible multi-criteria decision-making tool for dealing with complex problems where both qualitative and quantitative aspects need to be considered. This approach is knowledgedriven method and can be applied in other areas for conventional use in mineral exploration. 相似文献
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M. Vaccari C. Lari L. Angeretti D. Fadda C. Gruppioni F. Pozzi O. Prouton H. Aussel T. Babbedge P. Ciliegi A. Franceschini E. Gonzalez-Solares F. La Franca S. Oliver I. Perez-Fournon M. Rowan-Robinson S. Serjeant P. Väisänen 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,358(2):397-418
We present the final analysis of the European Large Area Infrared Space Observatory ( ISO ) Survey (ELAIS) 15-μm observations, carried out with the ISO Camera (ISOCAM) instrument on board the ISO .
The data-reduction method, known as the Lari Method, is based on a mathematical model of the behaviour of the detector and was specifically designed for the detection of faint sources in ISOCAM/ISO Photopolarimeter (ISOPHOT) data. The method is fully interactive and leads to very reliable and complete source lists.
The resulting catalogue includes 1923 sources detected with signal-to-noise ratio of > 5 in the 0.5–100 mJy flux range and over an area of 10.85 deg2 split into four fields, making it the largest non-serendipitous extragalactic source catalogue obtained to date from the ISO data.
This paper presents the concepts underlying the data-reduction method together with its latest enhancements. The data-reduction process, the production and basic properties of the resulting catalogue are discussed. The catalogue quality is assessed by means of detailed simulations, optical identifications and comparison with previous analyses. 相似文献
The data-reduction method, known as the Lari Method, is based on a mathematical model of the behaviour of the detector and was specifically designed for the detection of faint sources in ISOCAM/ISO Photopolarimeter (ISOPHOT) data. The method is fully interactive and leads to very reliable and complete source lists.
The resulting catalogue includes 1923 sources detected with signal-to-noise ratio of > 5 in the 0.5–100 mJy flux range and over an area of 10.85 deg
This paper presents the concepts underlying the data-reduction method together with its latest enhancements. The data-reduction process, the production and basic properties of the resulting catalogue are discussed. The catalogue quality is assessed by means of detailed simulations, optical identifications and comparison with previous analyses. 相似文献
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Accurate information on the conditions of road asphalt is necessary for economic development and transportation management. In this study, object-based image analysis (OBIA) rule-sets are proposed based on feature selection technique to extract road asphalt conditions (good and poor) using WorldView-2 (WV-2) satellite data. Different feature selection techniques, including support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and chi-square (CHI) are evaluated to indicate the most effective algorithm to identify the best set of OBIA attributes (spatial, spectral, textural and colour). The chi-square algorithm outperformed SVM and RF techniques. The classification result based on CHI algorithm achieved an overall accuracy of 83.19% for the training image (first site). Furthermore, the proposed model was used to examine its performance in different areas; and it achieved accuracy levels of 83.44, 87.80 and 80.26% for the different selected areas. Therefore, the selected method can be potentially useful for detecting road conditions based on WV-2 images. 相似文献
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Geochemical and quality assessment of groundwater of Marand Basin, East Azarbaijan Province, northwestern Iran 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Kaveh Pazand Ardeshir Hezarkhani Yousef Ghanbari Nasrin Aghavali 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,67(4):1131-1143
The chemical analysis of 83 water wells in the Marand area, Azarbaijan Province NW of Iran was evaluated to determine the hydrogeochemical processes and ion concentration background in the region. Over the entire area, the dominated hydrochemical types are Ca? +?Mg?+?SO4?+?Cl, Ca?+?SO4, Na?+?Cl and Ca?+?Mg?+?HCO3. Based on the total hardness, the softness of the groundwater is determined. According to electrical conductivity (EC) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), the most dominant classes are C3?CS1, C3?CS2, C4?CS2 and C2?CS1. The major ion concentrations are below the acceptable level for drinking water. The groundwater salinity hazard is medium to high, but the Na hazard is low to medium; with regard to irrigation water, the quality is low to medium. So, a drainage system is necessary to avoid the increase of toxic salt concentrations. 相似文献
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Kaveh Madani 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(2):174-183
Cooperative game theory solutions can provide useful insights into how parties may use water and environmental resources and share any benefits of cooperation. Here, a method based on Nash and Nash-Harsanyi bargaining solutions is developed to explore the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing process, in which owners of non-federal hydropower projects in the United States have to negotiate their allowable operations, with other interest groups (mainly environmental). Linkage of games to expand the feasible solution range and the “strategic loss” concept are discussed and a FERC relicensing bargaining model is developed for studying the bargaining stage (third stage) of the relicensing process. Based on the suggested solution method, how the lack of incentive for cooperation results in long delay in FERC relicensing in practice is explained. Further, potential effects of climate change on the FERC relicensing are presented and how climate change may provide an incentive for cooperation among the parties to hasten the relicensing is discussed. An “adaptive FERC license” framework is proposed, based on cooperative game theory, to improve the performance and adaptability of the system to future changes with no cost to the FERC, in face of uncertainty about future hydrological and ecological conditions. 相似文献
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Kaveh Pahlevan David J. Stevenson John M. Eiler 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2011,301(3-4):433-443
Despite its importance to questions of lunar origin, the chemical composition of the Moon is not precisely known. In recent years, however, the isotopic composition of lunar samples has been determined to high precision and found to be indistinguishable from the terrestrial mantle despite widespread isotopic heterogeneity in the Solar System. In the context of the giant-impact hypothesis, this level of isotopic homogeneity can evolve if the proto-lunar disk and post-impact Earth undergo turbulent mixing into a single uniform reservoir while the system is extensively molten and partially vaporized. In the absence of liquid–vapor separation, such a model leads to the lunar inheritance of the chemical composition of the terrestrial magma ocean. Hence, the turbulent mixing model raises the question of how chemical differences arose between the silicate Earth and Moon. Here we explore the consequences of liquid–vapor separation in one of the settings relevant to the lunar composition: the silicate vapor atmosphere of the post-giant-impact Earth. We use a model atmosphere to quantify the extent to which rainout can generate chemical differences by enriching the upper atmosphere in the vapor, and show that plausible parameters can generate the postulated enhancement in the FeO/MgO ratio of the silicate Moon relative to the Earth's mantle. Moreover, we show that liquid–vapor separation also generates measurable mass-dependent isotopic offsets between the silicate Earth and Moon and that precise silicon isotope measurements can be used to constrain the degree of chemical fractionation during this earliest period of lunar history. An approach of this kind has the potential to resolve long-standing questions on the lunar chemical composition. 相似文献