Studying Long-term Variations in the Caspian Sea with the Use of the Theory of Stochastic Differential Equations     

Naidenov  V. I.  Krutova  N. M. 《Water Resources》2002,29(3):270-281

Nonlinear mechanisms of long-term variations in the Caspian Sea level are described. It is shown that with account taken of the dependence of the evaporation depth from the Volga basin surface on soil moisture content and the dependence of the evaporation depth from the sea surface on its level, we obtain a fundamentally new (chaotic) oscillation mechanism with several attraction levels. The stochastic differential equations describing the water budget of the sea basin and the sea proper and the respective solutions of the Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov equation are shown to have stationary bimodal density of the level probability. The random process, characterizing the sea level variations at a nonlinear dependence between the evaporation rate and the level is found to be non-Gaussian. Noise-induced transitions, caused by nonlinear evaporation processes are described. A new nonlinear stochastic theory describing the Caspian Sea level variations and based on predicted physical effects is suggested.  相似文献