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A representative attenuation relationship is one of the key components required in seismic hazard assessment of a region of interest. Attenuation relationships for peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and response spectral accelerations for Sumatran megathrust earthquakes, covering Mw up to 9.0, are derived based on synthetic seismograms obtained from a finite‐fault kinematic model. The relationships derived are for very hard rock site condition and for a long‐distance range between 200 and 1500 km. They are then validated with recorded data from giant earthquakes on the Sumatran megathrust occurring since year 2000. A close examination of the recorded data also shows that spectral shapes predicted by most of the existing attenuation relationships and that specified in the IBC code are not particularly suitable for sites where potential seismic hazard is dominated by large‐magnitude, distant, earthquakes. Ground motions at a remote site are typically signified by the dominance of long‐period components with periods longer than 1 s, whereas the predominant periods from most of the existing attenuation relationships and the IBC code are shorter than 0.6 s. The shifting of response spectrum towards longer period range for distant earthquakes should be carefully taken into account in the formulation of future seismic codes for Southeast Asia, where many metropolises are located far from active seismic sources. The attenuation relationship derived in the present study can properly reproduce the spectral shape from distant subduction earthquakes, and could hopefully give insights into the formulation of future seismic codes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Manuela Di Mauro Kusnowidjaia Megawati Veronica Cedillos Brian Tucker 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(2):373-404
A major tsunamigenic earthquake is expected in the near future along the coast of West Sumatra Province of Indonesia. In the city of Padang, the arrival time of the tsunami is expected to be ~30 min. Currently, there are approximately 400,000 people in the city living within the potential inundation zone. This study aimed to complement the existing research in appraising possible risk reduction interventions, specifically looking at enabling the timely evacuation of the area. This research, developed in consultation with national and local authorities, emergency planners and NGOs, analysed interventions for tsunami risk reduction in Padang through the development of a pedestrian and vehicular evacuation model and the appraisal of possible solutions to enhance the evacuation rates. Some of the conclusions from this research can be applied to other areas in Southeast Asia where the traffic patterns are similar to those in Padang and where the distance to safety is greater than 4–5 km. For the case of Padang, the results show that pedestrian evacuation is strongly preferable to vehicular evacuation due to the limited road capacity and the high population density. In the present situation, however, 70–80 % of the population in Padang could not evacuate within 30 min, even by foot. Common interventions such as widening roads and building bridges prove to be relatively ineffective in this case due to the large distance that has to be covered in a short time. These interventions would only have a decisive impact if a longer evacuation time was available (more than 60 min). In the case of Padang, the evacuation rate in the first 30 min is strongly dependent on the presence/absence of evacuation shelters, whose effectiveness is limited by the capacity of the structures. Building a few high-capacity and high-resilience structures such as evacuation hills is a more effective and robust evacuation strategy than constructing many small high-raised buildings. Even with evacuation structures, wider roads and bridges, about 20 % of the population would still be unable to reach safety by the time the tsunami arrives. This means about 70,000 people of Padang’s current population, which is rapidly increasing. The building of evacuation shelters may be a viable option for saving lives in the short term, but it is not a sustainable option in the medium to long term. It is therefore also necessary to set up and enforce regulations for land use planning that take into account the tsunami risk and prevent further urban development for the areas that may be affected by a tsunami. 相似文献
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We present rock mechanical test results and analytical calculations which demonstrate that a negative surface charge, resulting from sulfate adsorption from the pore water, impacts the rock mechanical behavior of high-porosity chalk. Na2SO4 brine flooded into chalk cores at 130 °C results in significantly reduced bulk modulus and yield point compared with that of NaCl brine at the same conditions. The experimental results have been interpreted using a surface complexation model combined with the Gouy-Chapman theory to describe the double layer. The calculated sulfate adsorption agrees well with the measured data. A sulfate adsorption of about 0.3 μmol/m2 and 0.7–1 μmol/m2 was measured at 50 and 130 °C, respectively. Relative to a total sites of 5 sites/nm2 these values correspond to an occupation of 4 % and 8–13 % which sufficiently explains the negative charging of the calcite surfaces. The interaction between charged surfaces specifically in the weak overlaps of electrical double layer gives rise to the total disjoining pressure in granular contacts. The net repulsive forces act as normal forces in the grains vicinity, counteracting the cohesive forces and enhance pore collapse failure during isotropic loading, which we argue to account for the reduced yield and bulk modulus of chalk cores. The effect of disjoining pressure is also assessed at different sulfate concentrations in aqueous solution, temperatures, as well as ionic strength of solution; all together remarkably reproduce similar trends as observed in the mechanical properties. 相似文献
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Empirical relationships between natural vibration period and height of buildings in Singapore 
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下载免费PDF全文 Singapore is a classic case of a modern metropolis with low hazard but high exposure to the seismicity in Sumatra. Because of land shortage, more than 80% of the population lives in high‐rise residential buildings. As part of the efforts to assess the seismic performance of buildings in Singapore subjected to long‐distance Sumatran earthquakes, relationships between the natural vibration period and height of high‐rise public residential buildings in Singapore are derived empirically by conducting ambient vibration tests on 116 buildings. The measured buildings have a height ranging from 4 to 30 stories. The aspect ratio of buildings in plan is found to be insignificant in affecting the natural vibration period of the first mode of the buildings. The period‐height relationships are derived using regression analysis considering the site properties of a building. It is concluded that the vibration periods estimated from the proposed period‐height relationship for buildings located at soft‐soil site are about 40% longer than the vibration periods estimated for buildings located at firm‐soil site. Measurements are also conducted to study the influence of buildings on the measured frequency of the surrounding soil. For this purpose, two buildings with 25 and 30 stories located at firm‐soil site and soft‐soil site, respectively, are selected. It is found that the distance of building influence on the measured frequency of the surrounding soil may reach up to one building height for a firm‐soil site and two building heights for a soft‐soil site. Additional data of natural vibration periods of 19 instrumented residential buildings, which have height ranging from 9 to 30 stories, were obtained from the building response recorded during the September 30, 2009 Sumatran earthquake event. The natural vibration periods of these buildings are compared with those estimated using the proposed period‐height relationships, and the absolute differences are found to be less than 12%. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Although Singapore is located in a low‐seismicity region, huge but infrequent Sumatran subduction earthquakes might pose structural problems to medium‐ and high‐rise buildings in the city. Based on a series of ground motion simulations of potential earthquakes that may affect Singapore, the 1833 Sumatran subduction earthquake (Mw=9.0) has been identified to be the worst‐case scenario earthquake. Bedrock motions in Singapore due to the hypothesized earthquake are simulated using an extended reflectivity method, taking into account uncertainties in source rupture process. Random rupture models, considering the uncertainties in rupture directivity, slip distribution, presence of asperities, rupture velocity and dislocation rise time, are made based on a range of seismologically possible models. The simulated bedrock motions have a very long duration of about 250 s with a predominant period between 1.8 and 2.5 s, which coincides with the natural periods of medium‐ and high‐rise buildings widely found in Singapore. The 90‐percentile horizontal peak ground acceleration is estimated to be 33 gal and the 90‐percentile horizontal spectral acceleration with 5% damping ratio is 100 gal within the predominant period range. The 90‐percentile bedrock motion would generate base shear force higher than that required by the current design code, where seismic design has yet to be considered. This has not taken into account effects of local soil response that might further amplify the bedrock motion. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Kusnowidjaja Megawati Tso-Chien Pan Kazuki Koketsu 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2005,25(1):11-25
Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, may well represent the classic examples of area with low seismic hazard but with high consequence. Both cities are located in a low-seismicity region of Southeast Asia, where active seismic sources are located more than 300 km away. Seismic designs have not been implemented in this seemingly low-hazard region though distant earthquakes in Sumatra had frequently shaken high-rise structures in the two cities. Several studies have been conducted to systematically assess the seismic hazards of Singapore and the Malay Peninsula. The present research particularly addresses issues in deriving a new set of attenuation relationships of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and response spectral acceleration (RSA) for the Sumatran-subduction earthquakes. To be relevant for the seismic hazard assessment of the remote metropolises, the derived attenuation relationships cover a long distance range from 150 to 1500 km. The attenuation relationships are derived using synthetic seismograms that account for source and path effects. The uncertainties in rupture parameters, such as stress drop, strike, dip and rake angles, have been defined according to the regional geological and tectonic settings as well as the ruptures of previous earthquakes. The seismic potential of the Sumatran subduction zone are high in the region from 2°N to 5°S as there has been no recurrence of great thrust events since 1861. A large event with Mw greater than 7.8 in this particular subduction zone may be capable of generating destructive ground motions in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, even at a distance of 700 km. 相似文献
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Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses should be complementary, in the sense that probabilistic analysis may be used to identify the controlling deterministic design‐level earthquake events, and more sophisticated models of these events may then be developed to account for uncertainties that could not have been included directly in the probabilistic analysis. De‐aggregation of the tentative uniform hazard spectra (UHS) in Hong Kong resulting from a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) indicates that strong and major distant earthquakes, rather than moderate local earthquakes, make the largest contribution to the seismic hazard level within the natural‐period range longer than 0.3 s. Ground‐motion simulations of controlling events located 90 and 340 km from Hong Kong, taking into account uncertainties in the rupture process, reveal that the tentative UHS resulting from the PSHA may have significantly underestimated the mid‐to‐long period components. This is attributed mainly to the adoption of double‐corner source‐spectrum models in the attenuation relationships employed in the PSHA. The results of the simulations indicate clearly that rupture directivity and rupture velocity can significantly affect the characteristics of ground motions, even from such distant earthquakes. The rupture‐directivity effects have profound implications in elongating the second corner period where the constant velocity intersects the constant displacement, thus increasing the associated displacement demand. However, demands for acceleration and velocity are found to be not sensitive to the presence of the directivity pulses. Ground pulses resulting from forward rupture directivity of distant earthquakes have longer predominant periods than the usual near‐fault directivity pulses. These long‐period pulses may have profound implications for metropolises, such as Hong Kong and others in Southeast Asia, having large concentration of high‐rise buildings. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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As part of the effort to assess the seismic hazards of Singapore and the Malay Peninsula, representative ground motion prediction models have to be established. Seven existing attenuation relationships developed for shallow crustal earthquakes in stable continent and active tectonic regions are examined, and they are found to consistently over‐predict the ground motions of Sumatran‐fault earthquakes recently recorded in Singapore. This may be attributed to the differences in the regional crustal structures and distance ranges considered. Since the number of recorded ground motions in the region is very limited, a new set of attenuation relationships is derived based on synthetic seismograms. The uncertainties in rupture parameters, such as stress drop, focal depth, dip and rake angles, are defined according to the regional geological and tectonic settings as well as the ruptures of previous earthquakes. Ground motions are simulated for earthquakes with Mw ranging from 4.0 to 8.0, within a distance range from 174 to 1379km. Besides magnitude and distance, source‐to‐station azimuth is found to influence the amplitudes of the ground motions simulated. Thus, the azimuth is taken as an independent variable in the derived ground motion attenuation relationships. The Sumatran‐fault segments that have the potential to generate a specified level of response spectral accelerations in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur are identified based on the newly derived ground motion models. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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