On ensemble prediction of ocean waves   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Leandro Farina 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2002,54(2):148-158

The numerical ensemble prediction is a well accepted method for improving the performance of atmospheric models. In the context of ocean wave modeling little has been researched or documented about this technique. An essential study of the method of ensemble prediction applied to deep water waves has been carried out. A framework is defined for obtaining perturbations of the directional wave spectra and for employing an ensemble of wind fields generated by an atmospheric model. The third-generation global wave model WAM is used with real atmospheric conditions to investigate the effect on wave predictions of perturbed initial conditions and atmospheric forcing. Due to spectral shape stabilisation, perturbing wave initial conditions has limited utility in ensemble prediction. However, the members could be used in wave data assimilation schemes in an interactive way. Using ensembles of the atmospheric condition can generate diverging solutions, justifying the ensemble procedure by itself. In the cases studied, it is observed that the ensemble mean outperformed the other members. The solution behaviour suggests using a lower-order approximation of the model to generate ensemble members with less computational cost.  相似文献   

Contribution to the crystal chemistry of beryl     

H. de Almeida Sampaio Filho  G. P. Sighinolfi  E. Galli 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1973,38(4):279-290

Chemical analyses and crystallographic and some optical data have been obtained for 28 samples of beryl from Bahia State, Brazil. The larger range of variability in the chemical composition is shown by Mg, Fe and Li. Sodium is the more diffuse alkali element. Potassium is always very limited. Calcium appears in noticeable amounts only in three samples. The Ti, Cr, Rb, and Cs elements were also tested. The samples studied here can be defined as sodium-potassium beryls with low alkali content. Unit cell parameters show the following ranges: a=9.210–9.245 and c=9.190–9.220 Å. From a statistical analysis of these data it may be seen that: an increase of Fe and (Fe+Mn+Mg) percentage has a positive correlation with a, but no influence on c, which in turn has a close positive correlation with Li and is negatively correlated with Be. Less negative correlations also exist between the pairs {Be, Li}, {a,Al}, {Al, Fe} and {Al, (Fe+Mn+Mg)}. A positive correlation also exists between sodium and the parameter a.  相似文献   

Combined influence of PDO and ENSO on northern Andean glaciers: a case study on the Cotopaxi ice-covered volcano,Ecuador     

Bijeesh Kozhikkodan Veettil  Éder Leandro Bayer Maier  Ulisses Franz Bremer  Sergio Florencio de Souza 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(12):3439-3448

This paper describes the application of remote sensing in monitoring the fluctuations in one of the mountain glaciers in the Ecuadorean Andes during the past few decades using ASTER, EO-1 ALI, Landsat MSS, TM and ETM + images. Satellite images were used to calculate the snow line altitudes (SLAs) during the period 1979–2013. Cotopaxi ice covered volcano was studied as representative of Ecuadorian glaciers in the eastern cordillera. Precipitation and air temperature data from various gauging stations within the range of 30 km from the study site and monthly discharge and water level data from a gauging station were also utilized in this study. Anomalies in precipitation and temperature were found to be slightly different in the Cotopaxi region compared to nearby Antizana in the same cordillera and Chimborazo region in the western cordillera. An attempt to correlate the El Niño—southern oscillation phenomenon with the glacier fluctuations in Ecuadorian Andes was done successfully. Cold and warm regimes of Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also considered. The calculated glacier fluctuations obtained were similar to that performed on the nearby Antizana 15 in the eastern cordillera during 1995–2002. Precipitation and temperature anomalies were similar with Antizana 15. It is evident from the research that SLAs were highly fluctuated between the period of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events. It is also seen that the glacier fluctuations show a negative mass balance trend in during the warm regime of Pacific Decadal Oscillation during the past three decades. Glaciated areas were advanced during the La Nina events in the cold regime of PDO during 1998–2002.  相似文献   

Seasonal changes of the South American monsoon system during the Mid-Holocene in the CMIP5 simulations     

M. H. Shimizu  G. Sampaio  I. M. Venancio  J. Maksic 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(5):2697-2712

The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is a major climatic feature of South America, and its domain extends from Amazon to La Plata basin. The SAMS region is vulnerable to variations of climate and precipitation patterns, which could impact economic activities and lead to potential societal consequences. In the face of a warming future scenario, the importance of the study of the past climate with numerical simulations is to evaluate the climate models and to assure the reliability of future projections. Here we investigate the Mid-Holocene SAMS, evaluating changes in strength, life cycle and associated dynamical mechanisms in ten Earth System Models simulations. Our results show that the SAMS was weaker in the Mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate in December–January–February (DJF), but stronger in September–October–November (SON). This is probably a consequence of insolation variations in the Mid-Holocene, which contributed to changes in the moisture flux from the Atlantic Ocean to the continent, the strength of the upper-level atmospheric circulation, and the amount of precipitation over the SAMS region. Moreover, we suggest that the life cycle of the SAMS was altered during the Mid-Holocene, with an earlier onset and demise. Our results also indicate that Mid-Holocene SAMS changes are connected to precipitation variations near Northeast Brazil, in a dipole configuration of precipitation between western Amazon and Northeast Brazil, due to the influence of the Walker cell. Finally, this study highlights a need for improvement of the numerical models to better simulate the amount of precipitation over South America and the upper-level circulation over western Amazon in SON, which are crucial factors for a more realistic representation of the SAMS.  相似文献   

Urban forest loss using a GIS-based approach and instruments for integrated urban planning:A case study of Jo(a)o Pessoa,Brazil     

Leandro Ismael de Azevedo LACERDA  José Augusto Ribeiro da SILVEIRA  Celso Augusto Guimar 《地理学报(英文版)》2021,31(10):1529-1552

Urban forests play an important role in the thermal comfort and overall life of local populations in large-and medium-sized cities.This study analyzes urban forest loss and maps land use and land cover (LULC) changes between 1991 and 2018 by evaluating the use of urban planning instruments for the mitigation of urban forest loss in Jo～o Pessoa,Brazil.For this purpose,satellite-derived LULC images from 1991,2006,2010 and 2018 and data on urban forest loss areas obtained using the Google Earth Engine were used.In addi-tion,this paper also discusses the instruments used for integrated urban planning,which are(a) the legal sector,responsibility and nature;(b) the urban expansion process;and (c) the elements of urban infrastructure.The results show a clear shift in land use in the study area.The major changes in LULC classes occurred in urban areas and herbaceous vegetation,while the greatest loss was in arboreal/shrub vegetation.Thus,an increase in the pressure to occupy zones intended for environmental preservation could be estimated.Our results showed similar accuracies with other studies and more spatial details.The characteristics of the patterns,traces,and hotspots of urban expansion and forest cover loss were explored.We highlighted the potential use of this proposed framework to be applied and validated in other parts of the world to help better understand and quantify various aspects of ur-ban-related problems such as urban forest loss mapping using instruments for integrated urban planning and low-cost approaches.  相似文献   

Long‐term sediment yield from a small catchment in southern Brazil affected by land use and soil management changes          下载免费PDF全文

Jean P.G. Minella  Gustavo H. Merten  Claúdia A.P. Barros  Rafael Ramon  Alexandre Schlesner  Robin T. Clarke  Michele Moro  Leandro Dalbianco 《水文研究》2018,32(2):200-211

Sediments produced from eroding cultivated land can cause on‐site and off‐site effects that cause considerable economic and social impacts. Despite the importance of soil conservation practices (SCP) for the control of soil erosion and improvements in soil hydrological functions, limited information is available regarding the effects of SCP on sediment yield (SY) at the catchment scale. This study aimed to investigate the long‐term relationships between SY and land use, soil management, and rainfall in a small catchment. To determine the effects of anthropogenic and climatic factors on SY, rainfall, streamflow, and suspended sediment concentration were monitored at 10‐min intervals for 14 years (2002–2016), and the land use and soil management changes were surveyed annually. Using a statistical procedure to separate the SY effects of climate, land use, and soil management, we observed pronounced temporal effects of land use and soil management changes on SY. During the first 2 years (2002–2004), the land was predominantly cultivated with tobacco under a traditional tillage system (no cover crops and ploughed soil) using animal traction. In that period, the SY reached approximately 400 t·km^?2·year^?1. From 2005 to 2009, a soil conservation programme introduced conservation tillage and winter cover crops in the catchment area, which lowered the SY to 50 t·km^?2·year^?1. In the final period (2010–2016), the SCP were partially abandoned by farmers, and reforested areas increased, resulting in an SY of 150 t·km^?2·year^?1. This study also discusses the factors associated with the failure to continue using SCP, including structural support and farmer attitudes.  相似文献   

Coastal sediments under the influence of multiple organic enrichment sources: An evaluation using carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Leandro Sampaio  Cristina Máguas  Victor Quintino 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(2):272-282

  相似文献   

Malachite Green Adsorption by a Residue‐based Microwave‐activated Adsorbent     

Adriana S. Franca  Leandro S. Oliveira  Anne A. Nunes 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2010,38(9):843-849

  相似文献   

Comparison of Different Techniques of Tilt Testing and Basic Friction Angle Variability Assessment     

Leandro R. Alejano  Javier González  José Muralha 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2012,45(6):1023-1035

A relevant parameter for estimating discontinuity shear strength is the basic friction angle, usually derived from different types of tilt tests. However, the tilt tests described in the literature produce varying basic friction angle values. From a large number of different types of tilt tests on different kinds of rocks, it was possible to conclude that the mechanisms of sliding along cylinder generatrixes and planar surfaces are quite different, and that tests based on sliding along generatrixes are not appropriate for determining reliable basic friction angle values for discontinuity planes. Tests on small specimens are also not recommended, for geometry reasons and because ensuring reliable stress conditions is difficult. To quantify the natural variability in tilt testing, large specimens of the same granite were tested. The results revealed coefficients of variation for the basic friction angle in the range of 5–10?%, a variability which is no greater than that found for other rock mechanics parameters. This observation enables to forward some recommendations concerning the appropriate number of tests needed to obtain reliable results.  相似文献   

Study of a rockfall in a limy conglomerate canyon (Covarrubias, Burgos, N. Spain)     

Leandro R. Alejano  Silverio García-Cortés  Fernando García-Bastante  Roberto Martínez-Alegría 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(6):2703-2717

In this paper, a rockfall of some tenths of cubic metres of rock, occurred in a conglomerate canyon in the northern Castilian plateau (N-Central Spain), is described in detail. This includes the basic data (geology, mapping, meteorological data and rock involved), the mechanical mechanism of the instability, the propagation and reach of the fallen rock boulders and the final location of the pieces. The study is based on detailed geological, aerial photography and geotechnical studies and advance topographical measurements. Geological engineering techniques are used to analyze the instability initiation and rockfall propagation. This study contributes to a better understanding of the geological processes leading to the occurrence of calcareous canyons and cliffs in the drainage network of the upper Castilian plateau. It is also helpful to improve our knowledge on natural rockfall phenomena for risk engineering purposes aiming to quantify, control and mitigate associated hazards.  相似文献