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1.
Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue.  相似文献   
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A methodology to define discrete waves from free sea surface elevation time series is presented. The method allows an objective discrimination of false waves among small waves, avoiding the use of arbitrary criteria associated with zero-up-crossing, zero-down-crossing, or other definitions. The method uses the Hilbert Transform and the representation of the time series in the complex plane. A discrete wave corresponds to a 2π phase-advance in the complex plane. The waves between zero crossings which do not show 2π phase advance are considered false waves. Wave rider buoy records, measured off the west coast of Portugal, were employed in assessing some of the statistical implications of this methodology.  相似文献   
4.
FLATModel is a two-dimensional shallow-water approximation code with corrections and modifications that create a simulation tool adapted to debris-flows behaviour. FLATModel uses the finite volume method with the numerical implementation of the Godunov scheme and includes correction terms regarding the effect of flow over high slopes and curvature. Additionally, the stop-and-go phenomenon, the basal entrainment and a correction regarding the front inclination of the final deposit are incorporated into FLATModel. In addition, different flow resistance laws were integrated in the numerical code including Bingham, Herschel–Bulkley and Voellmy fluid model. Firstly, our numerical model was validated using analytical solutions of a dam-break scenario and published data on a laboratory experiment. Secondly, three real events, which occurred in the northeastern part of the Iberian Peninsula, were back-calculated. Although field observations of the three events are not very detailed, the back-analyses revealed interesting patterns on the flow dynamics, and the numerical results generally showed good agreement with field data. Comparing the different flow resistance laws, the Voellmy fluid model presents the best behaviour regarding both the flow behaviour and the deposit characteristics. Preliminary simulation runs incorporating the effect of basal entrainment offered satisfactory results, although the final volume is rather sensitive on the selected friction angle of channel-bed material. The outcomes regarding the correction of the calculated front inclination of the final deposit showed that this implementation strongly improves the simulation results and better represents steep fronts of final deposits.  相似文献   
5.
This paper summarizes the resilient and permanent deformation characteristics of laterite gravels, determined by cyclic loading in triaxial tests of compacted specimens. A study of laterite pavements was carried out on eight paved road sections in the state of Mato Grosso. Also reported is the influence of fine sand admixture, specimen size and soaking in two laterite samples from Roraima and Rondônia in the North of Brazil. The experimental relationships of resilient moduli against applied stresses are interpreted empirically for models what may be incorporated in a structural analysis of full depth of laterite pavement.  相似文献   
6.
Spatial and temporal variations of Na, Mg, Si, K, Ca, SO42-, Cl-, HCO3-, Ag, Al, As, Au, B, Ba, Be, Bi, Br, Ce, Cd, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Dy, Er, Eu, F, Fe, Ga, Ge, Gd, Hf, Hg, Ho, I, La, Li, Mn, Mo, Nb, Nd, Ni, P, Pb, Pr, Rb, Sb, Sm, Sn, Sr, Ta, Tb, Te, Th, Ti, Tl, U, V, W, Y, Yb, Zn, and Zr were monitored through 37 sampling stations to determine the main aspects influencing the surface-water quality in the Salí River watershed (Tucumán Province, NW Argentina). The influence of the regional geological setting on water chemistry allows to distinguish three sub-basins. The interaction with sedimentary rocks was found to be dominant in the northern and central-eastern sub-basin as well as in the southern sub-basin, whereas the metamorphic-granitic basement of the Pampean Ranges was noted in the central sub-basin. In addition, anthropogenic activities affect the spatial variation of K, P, Mn, Rb, and Pb as well as dissolved oxygen concentrations and Eh. Temporal water-quality variation is related to the spatial distribution of precipitation and to the seasonal character of the main local industries (sugar cane, alcohol, citrus), increasing P and K concentrations and decreasing dissolved oxygen concentration and Eh in winter. Cl-, Na, SO42-, Al, As, B, Fe, Mn, Se and U concentrations exceed the regulated drinking-water thresholds at several sampling stations.  相似文献   
7.
Surveys carried out in mountainous areas of northern Vietnam at research sites selected across a gradient of market integration, revealed strong relationships between the location of the village with respect to the national road network and the nature of its land-use systems, its poverty level and more generally its potential for development. We developed and tested in Bac Kan province a method to give an objective and quantitative definition of accessibility over a large geographic area. Accessibility maps integrated in a provincial GIS showed that despite recent improvements to the road network, some remote areas do not benefit from recent development.  相似文献   
8.
The Chilean Patagonian fjords region (41–56°S) is characterized by highly complex geomorphology and hydrographic conditions, and strong seasonal and latitudinal patterns in precipitation, freshwater discharge, glacier coverage, and light regime; all of these directly affect biological production in the water column. In this study, we compiled published and new information on water column properties (primary production, nutrients) and surface sediment characteristics (biogenic opal, organic carbon, molar C/N, bulk sedimentary δ13Corg) from the Chilean Patagonian fjords between 41°S and 55°S, describing herein the latitudinal pattern of water column productivity and its imprint in the underlying sediments. Based on information collected at 188 water column and 118 sediment sampling sites, we grouped the Chilean fjords into four main zones: Inner Sea of Chiloé (41° to ~44°S), Northern Patagonia (44° to ~47°S), Central Patagonia (48–51°S), and Southern Patagonia (Magellan Strait region between 52° and 55°S). Primary production in the Chilean Patagonian fjords was the highest in spring–summer, reflecting the seasonal pattern of water column productivity. A clear north–south latitudinal pattern in primary production was observed, with the highest average spring and summer estimates in the Inner Sea of Chiloé (2427 and 5860 mg C m?2 d?1) and Northern Patagonia (1667 and 2616 mg C m?2 d?1). This pattern was closely related to the higher availability of nutrients, greater solar radiation, and extended photoperiod during the productive season in these two zones. The lowest spring value was found in Caleta Tortel, Central Patagonia (91 mg C m?2 d?1), a site heavily influenced by glacier meltwater and river discharge loaded with glacial sediments. Biogenic opal, an important constituent of the Chilean fjord surface sediments (SiOPAL ~1–13%), reproduced the general north–south pattern of primary production and was directly related to water column silicic acid concentrations. Surface sediments were also rich in organic carbon content and the highest values corresponded to locations far away from glacier influence, sites within fjords, and/or semi-enclosed and protected basins, reflecting both autochthonous (water column productivity) and allochthonous sources (contribution of terrestrial organic matter from fluvial input to the fjords). A gradient was observed from the more oceanic sites to the fjord heads (west–east) in terms of bulk sedimentary δ13Corg and C/N ratios; the more depleted (δ13Corg ?26‰) and higher C/N (23) values corresponded to areas close to rivers and glaciers. A comparison of the Chilean Patagonian fjords with other fjord systems in the world revealed high variability in primary production for all fjord systems as well as similar surface sediment geochemistry due to the mixing of marine and terrestrial organic carbon.  相似文献   
9.
The hyper-arid conditions prevailing in Agua Verde aquifer in northern Chile make this system the most important water source for nearby towns and mining industries. Due to the growing demand for water in this region, recharge is investigated along with the impact of intense pumping activity in this aquifer. A conceptual model of the hydrogeological system is developed and implemented into a two-dimensional groundwater-flow numerical model. To assess the impact of climate change and groundwater extraction, several scenarios are simulated considering variations in both aquifer recharge and withdrawals. The estimated average groundwater lateral recharge from Precordillera (pre-mountain range) is about 4,482 m3/day. The scenarios that consider an increase of water withdrawal show a non-sustainable groundwater consumption leading to an over-exploitation of the resource, because the outflows surpasses inflows, causing storage depletion. The greater the depletion, the larger the impact of recharge reduction caused by the considered future climate change. This result indicates that the combined effects of such factors may have a severe impact on groundwater availability as found in other groundwater-dependent regions located in arid environments. Furthermore, the scenarios that consider a reduction of the extraction flow rate show that it may be possible to partially alleviate the damage already caused to the aquifer by the continuous extractions since 1974, and it can partially counteract climate change impacts on future groundwater availability caused by a decrease in precipitation (and so in recharge), if the desalination plant in Taltal increases its capacity.  相似文献   
10.
This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.  相似文献   
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