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Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Alfonso Mariano Ramos-Cañón Luis Felipe Prada-Sarmiento Mario Germán Trujillo-Vela Juan Pablo Macías Ana Carolina Santos-R 《Landslides》2016,13(4):671-681
Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km2 area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I MAP, normalized daily rainfall R MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis. 相似文献
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Mateja Jemec Auflič Matjaž Mikoš Timotej Verbovšek Željko Arbanas Snježana Mihalić Arbanas 《Landslides》2018,15(2):381-384
The 3rd Regional Symposium on Landslides in the Adriatic-Balkan Region (3rd ReSyLAB) was held in Ljubljana, Slovenia, from June 11 to 13, 2017, with 70 participants from nine countries (Austria, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Croatia, Czech Republic, Italy, Republic of Macedonia, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain)—scientists, engineers, researchers, students, experts, politicians, and other decision-makers working in the area of landslide risk reduction in the region. The ReSyLAB is a biannual event organized by the Adriatic-Balkan Network of the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL ABN). Being an important form of activities of this ICL regional network comprising of six ICL members from four countries, it was also a contribution of the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) to the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. This article reports on the main outcomes of the 3rd ReSyLAB Symposium. Altogether, 41 abstracts were published in the symposium book of abstracts, and the symposium proceedings with over 20 reviewed full papers are under preparation to be printed early in 2018. During the 3rd ReSyLAB, a five invited keynote lectures have been presented, and 28 oral presentations are given to the audience. An important part of the symposium was a Round Table entitled “Enhancing cooperation between landslide research community and end users.” On the last day of the symposium, over 30 experts participated in two post-symposium study tours in Slovenia. 相似文献
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Bojan Vršnak Mateja Dumbović Jaša Čalogović Giuliana Verbanac Ivana Poljanǐć–Beljan 《Solar physics》2017,292(9):140
We present an analysis of the geoeffectiveness of corotating interaction regions (CIRs), employing the data recorded from 25 January to 5 May 2005 and throughout 2008. These two intervals in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 23 are characterised by a particularly low number of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). We study in detail how four geomagnetic-activity parameters (the Dst, Ap, and AE indices, as well as the Dst time derivative, \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\)) are related to three CIR-related solar wind parameters (flow speed, \(V\), magnetic field, \(B\), and the convective electric field based on the southward Geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) magnetic field component, \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\)) on a three-hour time resolution. In addition, we quantify statistical relationships between the mentioned geomagnetic indices. It is found that Dst is correlated best to \(V\), with a correlation coefficient of \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.6\), whereas there is no correlation between \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) and \(V\). The Ap and AE indices attain peaks about half a day before the maximum of \(V\), with correlation coefficients ranging from \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.6\) to \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.7\), depending on the sample used. The best correlations of Ap and AE are found with \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\) with a delay of 3 h, being characterised by \(\mathrm{cc}\gtrsim 0.6\). The Dst derivative \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) is also correlated with \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\), but the correlation is significantly weaker \(\mathrm{cc}\approx 0.4\)?–?0.5, with a delay of 0?–?3 h, depending on the employed sample. Such low values of correlation coefficients indicate that there are other significant effects that influence the relationship between the considered parameters. The correlation of all studied geomagnetic parameters with \(B\) are characterised by considerably lower correlation coefficients, ranging from \(\mathrm{cc}=0.3\) in the case of \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) up to \(\mathrm{cc}=0.56\) in the case of Ap. It is also shown that peak values of geomagnetic indices depend on the duration of the CIR-related structures. The Dst is closely correlated with Ap and AE (\(\mathrm{cc}=0.7\)), Dst being delayed for about 3 h. On the other hand, \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) peaks simultaneously with Ap and AE, with correlation coefficients of 0.48 and 0.56, respectively. The highest correlation (\(\mathrm{cc}=0.81\)) is found for the relationship between Ap and AE. 相似文献
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Abstract– The single‐piece iron meteorite Javorje, with a mass of 4920 g, is the heaviest and largest meteorite found in the territory of Slovenia. The meteorite Javorje is a medium octahedrite with kamacite bandwidth of 0.85 ± 0.26 mm. The bulk composition of Ni (7.83 wt%), Co (0.48 wt%) and trace elements Ga (25 μg/g), Ge (47 μg/g), Ir (7.6 μg/g), As (5.8 μg/g), Au (0.47 μg/g), and Pt (13.4 μg/g) indicates that the meteorite Javorje belongs to the chemical group IIIAB. Mineral and bulk chemical compositions are consistent with other reported group IIIAB meteorites. The presence of numerous rhabdites, carlsbergite, sparse troilite, and chromite and abundance of daubréelites are in accordance with low‐Ni and low‐P IIIAB iron meteorites. The severely weathered surface and secondary weathering products in the interior of the meteorite suggest its high terrestrial age. 相似文献
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Gianluigi Di Paola Pietro Patrizio Ciro Aucelli Guido Benassai Germán Rodríguez 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(3):1795-1819
This paper presents a new method for coastal vulnerability assessment (CVA), which relies upon three indicators: run-up distance (as a measurement of coastal inundation), beach retreat (as a measurement of potential erosion), and beach erosion rate (obtained through the shoreline positions in different periods). The coastal vulnerability analysis of Sele Coastal Plain to storm impacts is examined along a number of beach profiles realized between 2008 and 2009. This particular study area has been selected due to its low-lying topography and high erosion propensity. Results are given in terms of an impact index, performed by combining the response due to coastal inundation, storm erosion, and beach erosion rate. This analysis is implemented on the basis of morphosedimentary characteristics of the beach, wave climate evaluation, and examination of multitemporal aerial photographs and topographic maps. The analysis of the final results evidences different coastal responses as a function of the beach width and slope, which in turn depend on the local anthropization level. The comparison of this method with a Coastal Vulnerability Index method evidences the better attitude of CVA index to take into account the different beach features to explain the experienced damages in specific stretches of the coastline considered. 相似文献
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The abandoned Hg mine in Podljubelj was in operation with interceptions from 1557 to 1902. The entire operating period yielded about 110 000 tons of ore, from which 360 tons of Hg was produced. The objective of the research project was to establish the contents and spatial distribution of Hg in soils and stream sediments in the vicinity of the mine. On an area of 88 ha the soil was sampled in a 100 × 100 m grid. Two soil horizons (0–5 cm and 20–30 cm) were sampled in order to distinguish between geogenic and anthropogenic Hg sources. It was established that on an area of about 9 ha Hg content in soil exceeds The New Dutchlist action value for Hg (10 mg/kg). Total Hg concentrations in soil samples vary between 0.17 and 719 mg/kg, with a mean of 3.0 mg/kg. Mercury contents in stream sediments range from 0.065 to 1.4 mg/kg, with a mean of 0.64 mg/kg. The highest determined value in soils was found in the area around the former roasting furnace, where the ore was processed. Increased Hg concentrations were also found on the mine waste dump (108 mg/kg). Mercury contents in soils generally decrease with soil profile depth and with the distance from the mine and from the roasting furnace location. Mercury also appears in higher concentrations along the road that runs through the valley, which results from the use of Hg-bearing ore residues in road construction. The average enrichment factor (EF) of Hg in topsoil with respect to subsoil is 3.3. Calculated enrichment factors show higher values also for Cd (3.2), Pb (2.7), Ca (2.4) and P (1.9). The average enrichment factor of Hg in topsoil with regard to the established Slovenian soil averages (EFslo) is 19. EFslo of other determined chemical elements do not exceed 3.0. 相似文献
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Cretaceous deformation of the southern Central Andes: synorogenic growth strata in the Neuquén Group (35° 30′–37° S) 
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下载免费PDF全文 Lucas M. Fennell Andrés Folguera Maximiliano Naipauer Guido Gianni Emilio A. Rojas Vera Germán Bottesi Victor A. Ramos 《Basin Research》2017,29(Z1):51-72
The Neuquén Group is an Upper Cretaceous continental sedimentary unit exhumed during the latest Miocene contractional phase occurred in the southern Central Andes, allowing a direct field observation and study of the depositional geometries. The identification of growth strata on these units surrounding the structures of the frontal parts of the Andes, sedimentological analyses and U–Pb dating of detrital components, allowed the definition of a synorogenic unit that coexisted with the uplift of the early Andean orogen since ca. 100 Ma, maximum age obtained in this work, compatible with previous assignments and constrained in the top by the deposition of the Malargüe Group, in the Maastrichtian (ca. 72 Ma). The definition of a wedge top area in this foreland basin system, where growth strata were described, permitted to identify a Late Cretaceous orogenic front and foredeep area, whose location and amplitude contrast with previous hypotheses. This wedge top area was mostly fed from the paleo‐Andes with small populations coming from sources in the cratonic area that are interpreted as a recycling in Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous sections, which contrasts with other analyses performed at the foredeep zone that have mixed sources. In particular, Permian sources are interpreted as coming directly from the cores of the basement structures, where Neopaleozoic sections are exposed, next to the synorogenic sedimentation, implying a strong incision in Late Cretaceous times with an exhumation structural level similar to the present. The maximum recognised advance for this Late Cretaceous deformation in the study area is approximately 500 km east of the Pacific trench, which constitutes an anomaly compared with neighbour segments where Late Cretaceous deformations were found considerably retracted. The geodynamic context of the sedimentation of this unit is interpreted as produced under the westward fast moving of South America, colliding with two consecutive mid‐ocean ridges during a period of important plate reorganisation. The subduction of young, anhydrous, buoyant lithosphere would have produced changes in the subduction geometry, reflected first by an arc waning/gap and subsequently by an arc migration that coexisted with synorogenic sedimentation. These magmatic and deformational processes would be the product of a shallow subduction regime, following previous proposals, which occurred in Late Cretaceous times, synchronous to the sedimentation of the Neuquén Group. 相似文献
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Effects of fracture intersections on seismic dispersion: theoretical predictions versus numerical simulations 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Junxin Guo J. Germán Rubino Stanislav Glubokovskikh Boris Gurevich 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(5):1264-1276
The detection and characterisation of domains of intersecting fractures are important goals in several disciplines of current interest, including exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs, nuclear waste storage, CO2 sequestration, and groundwater hydrology, among others. The objective of this study is to propose a theoretical framework for quantifying the effects of fracture intersections on the frequency‐dependent elastic properties of fluid‐saturated porous and fractured rocks. Three characteristic frequency regimes for fluid pressure communication are identified. In the low‐frequency limit, fractures are in full pressure communication with the embedding porous matrix and with other fractures. Conversely, in the high‐frequency limit, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix and from other fractures. At intermediate frequencies, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix porosity but can be in hydraulic communication with each other, depending on whether fracture sets are intersecting. For each frequency regime, the effective stiffness coefficients are derived using the linear‐slip theory and anisotropic Gassmann equations. Explicit mathematical expressions for the two characteristic frequencies that separate the three frequency regimes are also determined. Theoretical predictions are then applied to two synthetic 2D samples, each containing two orthogonal fracture sets: one with and another without intersections. The resulting stiffness coefficients, Thomsen‐style anisotropy parameters, and the transition frequencies show good agreement with corresponding numerical simulations. The theoretical results are applicable not only to 2D but also to 3D fracture systems and are amenable to being employed in inversion schemes designed to characterise fracture systems. 相似文献
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Javier Alcántara-Carrió Silvia Albarracín Isabel Montoya Montes Germán Flor-Blanco Ángela Fontán Bouzas Jorge Rey Salgado 《Geo-Marine Letters》2013,33(2-3):209-216
The objective of this study is to document and interpret a recently discovered carbonate-cemented coastal barrier on the inner shelf of the Gulf of Valencia (western Mediterranean Sea). The coastal barrier was identified in a high-resolution digital bathymetric model based on a cartographic survey of the study area using a multibeam echosounder. Moreover, radiocarbon dating and petrographic analyses were performed on a rock sample recovered from the seabed. The data reveal the submerged coastal barrier to be approx. 1.7 km wide and 70 km long, and incised by channels of various dimensions. Aligned more or less parallel to the modern coastline, it is interpreted as corresponding to the shoreline of a former sea-level stillstand. The barrier and lagoon system became stranded above sea level in the course of a subsequent forced regression, which also caused the incision of the river courses. Age dating of the cemented rock suggests that the fossil coastal barrier most probably formed during the prolonged Tyrrhenian (Eemian) sea-level highstand, induration taking place by carbonate cementation at the contact between freshwater and seawater (beach-rock formation). The fact that the fossil barrier is today submerged below modern sea level is explained by the sustained subsidence affecting the region. 相似文献