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1.
Richard A Shakesby David J Boakes Celeste de OA Coelho AJ Bento Gonçalves Rory PD Walsh 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》1996,16(4):337-355
In newly burnt and unburnt pine and eucalyptus forest in Portugal, overland flow and soil losses were monitored to assess the impacts of the following post-fire treatments: application of different quantities of logging litter; rip-ploughing compared with minimum tillage prior to planting eucalyptus seedlings; and clearance of pine needles and vegetation. Eucalyptus logging litter reduced soil losses by up to 95 per cent. The impact of pine logging litter was equivocal, but removal of pine needles increased soil losses elevenfold. Implications for soil longevity, soil quality and land management strategy are discussed. 相似文献
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Esther Salazar Dorit Hammerling Xia Wang Bruno Sansó Andrew O. Finley Linda O. Mearns 《Climatic change》2016,138(1-2):55-69
We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States. 相似文献
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AJ Pitman 《Climate Dynamics》1991,6(2):99-112
The effects of small fractions ( < 30%) of open water covering a grid element are currently neglected even in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) which incorporate complex land surface parameterization schemes. Here, a method for simulating sub-grid scale open water is proposed which permits any existing land surface model to be modified to account for open water. This new parameterization is tested as an addition to an advanced land surface scheme and, as expected, is shown to produce general increases in the surface latent heat flux at the expense of the surface sensible heat flux. Small changes in temperature are associated with this change in the partitioning of available energy which is driven by an increase in the wetness of the grid element. The sensitivity of the land surface to increasing amounts of open water is dependent upon the type of vegetation represented. Dense vegetation (with a high leaf area index) is shown to complicate the apparently simple model sensitivity and indicates that more advanced methods of incorporating open water into AGCMs need to be considered and compared against the parameterization suggested here. However, the sensitivity of one land surface model to incorporating open water is large enough to warrant consideration of its incorporation into climate models. 相似文献
5.
We investigated the effect of two different spatial scales of climate change scenarios on crop yields simulated by the EPIC crop model for corn, soybean, and wheat, in the central Great Plains of the United States. The effect of climate change alone was investigated in Part I. In Part II (Easterling et al., 2001) we considered the effects ofCO2 fertilization effects and adaptation in addition to climate change. The scenarios were formed from five years of control and 2 ×CO2 runs of a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM) and the same from an Australian coarse resolution general circulation model (GCM), which provided the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional model runs. We also investigated the effect of two different spatial resolutions of soil input parameters to the crop models. We found that for corn and soybean in the eastern part of the study area, significantly different mean yield changes were calculated depending on the scenario used. Changes in simulated dryland wheat yields in the western areas were very similar, regardless of the scale of the scenario. The spatial scale of soils had a strong effect on the spatial variance and pattern of yields across the study area, but less effect on the mean aggregated yields. We investigated what aspects of the differences in the scenarios were most important for explaining the different simulated yield responses. For instance, precipitation changes in June were most important for corn and soybean in the eastern CSIRO grid boxes. We establish the spatial scale of climate changescenarios as an important uncertainty for climate change impacts analysis. 相似文献
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Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
L. O. Mearns S. Sain L. R. Leung M. S. Bukovsky S. McGinnis S. Biner D. Caya R. W. Arritt W. Gutowski E. Takle M. Snyder R. G. Jones A. M. B. Nunes S. Tucker D. Herzmann L. McDaniel L. Sloan 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):965-975
We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs. 相似文献
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Bo Li Steve Sain Linda O. Mearns Henry A. Anderson Sari Kovats Kristie L. Ebi Marni Y. V. Bekkedal Marty S. Kanarek Jonathan A. Patz 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):959-976
Given predictions of increased intensity and frequency of heat waves, it is important to study the effect of high temperatures on human mortality and morbidity. Many studies focus on heat wave-related mortality; however, heat-related morbidity is often overlooked. The goals of this study are to examine the historical observed relationship between temperature and morbidity (illness), and explore the extent to which observed historical relationships could be used to generate future projections of morbidity under climate change. We collected meteorological, air pollution, and hospital admissions data in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the years 1989–2005, and employed a generalized additive model (GAM) to quantify the relationship between morbidity (as measured by hospital admissions) and high temperatures with adjustment for the effects of potential confounders. We also estimated temperature threshold values for different causes of hospital admissions and then quantified the associated percent increase of admissions per degree above the threshold. Finally, the future impact of higher temperatures on admissions for the years 2059–2075 was examined. Our results show that five causes of admission (endocrine, genitourinary, renal, accidental, and self-harm) and three age groups (15–64, 75–84, >85 years) were affected by high temperatures. Future projections indicate a larger number of days above the current temperature threshold leading to an increase in admissions. Our results indicate that climate change may increase heat-related hospital admissions in the US urban mid-West and that health systems should include heat wave planning. 相似文献
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The Thukela Bank, KwaZulu-Natal, supports a diverse ecosystem and South Africa’s only prawn fishery. Oceanographic studies suggest riverine input is not important for the biology of this system, whereas biological studies suggest the contrary, with prawn catches increasing with increased fluvial run-off. The aim of this study was to determine (i) the importance of riverine and marine organic matter for the Thukela Bank food web; and (ii) whether there are seasonal changes in the Thukela River stable isotope values, and, if so, whether these are reflected in the isotope values of demersal organisms. Estuarine organic matter, sediments and demersal organisms were collected from several sites across the bank in the wet and dry seasons of 2008, 2009 and 2010. Marine particulate organic matter was also collected in 2010 and analysed for δ13C and δ15N, as well as C/N ratios. There were strong seasonal changes in isotopic values of organic matter and fauna, especially faunal δ13C. There was an apparent time-lag in organisms assimilating riverine organic matter isotopic values, with the isotopic signature of demersal organisms reflecting that of riverine organic matter from the previous season, which is likely the result of tissue turnover time. In 2010, Thukela Bank sediment organic matter was of riverine origin and this maintained the demersal food web. We conclude that Thukela River organic matter is an important input to the food web of the Thukela Bank, indicating that any future damming of the catchment area could have serious consequences for this ecosystem. 相似文献
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Olivine clinopyroxenite xenoliths in the Oslo Rift,SE Norway 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
E. -R. Neumann T. Andersen E. W. Mearns 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1988,98(2):184-193
Olivine clinopyroxenite xenoliths in a basalt flow at Krokskogen in the Oslo rift consist mainly of Al-Ti-rich clinopyroxene and alteration products after olivine (possibly also orthopyroxene). The clinopyroxene contains primary inclusions of Cr-Al-bearing titanomagnetite, pyrite and devitrified glass, and secondary fluid inclusions rich in CO2. On the basis of petrography, mineral compositions and bulk major and trace element chemistry, it is concluded that the xenoliths represent cumulates with about 5% trapped liquid, formed from a mildly alkaline basaltic magma. Microthermometrical analysis of secondary or pseudosecondary fluid inclusions give a minimum pressure of formation of 5.5 to 6 kbars, that is a depth greater than 16–17 km. The host lava has initial
Nd=+4.16±0.17 and
Sr=–5.50±0.26, which is believed to reflect the isotopic composition of the lithospheric mantle source region under south Norway in early Permian time. The isotopic character of the magma which gave rise to the xenoliths is preserved in clinopyroxenes which have
Nd
t
=+1.9 to +2.6 and
Sr
t
= –1.1 to –1.8. The isotopic differences between the host magma and the xenoliths reflect some degree of crustal contamination of the xenolith's parent magma.The xenoliths of this study represent an important source of information about the large masses of dense cumulates found at depth in the crust under the Oslo rift. 相似文献