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A stochastic model for synthetic data generation is not available in the literature for daily flows of intermittent streams. Such a model is required in the planning and operation of structures on an intermittent stream for purposes where short time flow fluctuations are important. In this study a model is developed for such a case. The model consists of four steps: determination of the days on which flow occurs, determination of the days on which a flow increment occurs, determination of the magnitude of the flow increment, and calculation of the flow decrement on days when the flow is reduced. The first two steps are modelled by a three‐state Markov chain. In the third step, flow increments on the rising limb of the hydrograph are assumed to be gamma distributed. In the last step an exponential recession is used with two different coefficients. Parameters of the model are estimated from the observed daily stream flow data for each month of the year. The model is applied to a daily flow series of 35 years' length. It is seen that the model can preserve the short‐term characteristics (the ascension and recession curves and peaks) of the hydrograph in addition to the long‐term characteristics (mean, variance, skewness, lag‐one and higher lag autocorrelation coefficients, and zero flow percentage). The number of parameters of the model can be decreased by fitting Fourier series to their annual variation. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Mann–Kendall (MK) test for trend detection must be modified when the data are serially correlated, to prevent the detection of false trends. Various approaches are developed for this purpose, such as prewhitening, trend‐free prewhitening, variance correction and block bootstrap. Each method has its own Type I and Type II errors. In this study, the errors of block bootstrapping MK test are estimated by a simulation study and compared with other methods. Optimal block length that minimizes the Type I error is determined as function of sample size and autocorrelation coefficient. It is shown that the power of block bootstrapping MK test is comparable with those of other modified MK tests. These tests are applied to some annual streamflow series with trend recorded in Turkish rivers, and their powers are compared. A modified form of the trend‐free prewhitening procedure is proposed that has a smaller Type I error. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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In this study a new method is developed to determine a flow duration curve (FDC) for a process in which stream flow is defined as a product of two variables, representing the periodic and the stochastic components, respectively. The cumulative frequency distribution is obtained via integration procedures and also given as an algorithm for discrete variables. Hence the exceedance probability for any given flow value can be calculated. The method is applied to daily flow data from many sites and it is found that the FDCs based on this method compare well with the observed FDC. Furthermore the FDCs developed in this method compare well with other methods in the recent literature. It was found that non‐dimensional flow duration curves in Turkey can be characterized by three, or sometimes just two, parameters. Values of these parameters have been estimated at many sites enabling a FDC to be constructed at neighbouring sites for which only the drainage basin area is known. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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