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Predictive Power Evaluation of a Physically Based Model for Shallow Landslides in the Area of Oltrepò Pavese,Northern Italy 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Roberto Valentino Claudia Meisina Lorella Montrasio Gian Luca Losi Davide Zizioli 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2014,32(4):783-805
The use of real-time landslide early warning systems is attracting the attention of the scientific community, since it allows to assess “where” and “when” a shallow rainfall-induced landslide might occur by coupling rainfall amounts, hydrological models and slope-stability analysis. The paper deals with the main results of a back analysis, which refers to the application of a physically based stability model [Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP)] on regional scale. The analysis concerns the occurrence of some recent rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the municipal territory of Broni, in the area of Oltrepò Pavese (Northern Italy). The study area is a hilly region 2.4 km2 wide, where more than 40 % of the territory has slopes steeper than 15° and altitudes are between 90 and 250 m a.s.l. As regards the geologic setting, clayey-silty shallow colluvial deposits, with a maximum thickness of about 3 m, overlap a bedrock made of clayey shales, calcareous flysch and marls. The SLIP model is based on the limit equilibrium method applied to an infinite slope and on the Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion for the soil. By assuming that the main hydro-geotechnical process that leads to failure is the saturation of parts of the soil, the model allows to take into account the condition of partial saturation of the soil. The safety factor (F S ) of a slope is also function of previous rainfalls. After the implementation of the model at territory scale, the input data have been introduced through a geographic information systems platform. In the current paper we mainly intend to evaluate the performance of SLIP at catchment scale, by comparison to (1) observed landslide events and (2) another well-established physically based model (TRIGRS). Further, we want to assess the suitability of the model as early warning tool. The results produced by the model are analyzed both in terms of safety factor maps, corresponding to some particular rainfall events, and in terms of the time-varying percentage of unstable areas over a 2-year span period. The paper shows the comparison between observed landslide localizations and model predictions. A quantitative comparison between the SLIP model and TRIGRS is presented, only for the most important event that occurred during the analyzed period. Overall, the results of the stability analyses based on observed rainfalls show the capability of the SLIP model to predict, in real-time and on a wide area, the occurrence of the analyzed phenomena. 相似文献
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Meisina C. Bonì R. Bozzoni F. Conca D. Perotti Cesare Persichillo Pina Lai C. G. 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2022,20(11):5601-5632
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Mapping the susceptibility of earthquake-induced soil liquefaction at the continental scale is a challenge. Susceptibility of soils to liquefaction is the... 相似文献
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This paper illustrates the main characteristics of the newly developed landslide model r.massmov, which is based on the shallow water equations, and is capable of simulating the landslide propagation over complex topographies. The model is the result of the reimplementation of the MassMov2D into the free and open-source GRASS GIS with a series of enhancements aiming at allowing its possible integration into innovative early warning monitoring systems and specifically into Web processing services. These improvements, finalized at significantly reducing computational times, include the introduction of a new automatic stopping criterion, fluidization process algorithm, and the parallel computing. Moreover, the results of multi-spatial resolution analysis conducted on a real case study located in the southern Switzerland are presented. In particular, this analysis, composed by a sensitivity analysis and calibration process, allowed to evaluate the model capabilities in simulating the phenomenon at different input data resolution. The results illustrate that the introduced modifications lead to important reductions in the computational time (more than 90 % faster) and that, using the lower dataset resolution capable of guaranteeing reliable results, the model can be run in about 1 s instead of the 3.5 h required by previous model with not optimized dataset resolution. Aside, the results of the research are a series of new GRASS GIS modules for conducting sensitivity analysis and for calibration. The latter integrates the automated calibration program “UCODE” with any GRASS raster module. Finally, the research workflow presented in this paper illustrates a best practice in applying r.massmov in real case applications. 相似文献
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Lai C. G. Bozzoni F. Conca D. Famà A. Özcebe A. G. Zuccolo E. Meisina C. Bonì R. Bordoni M. Cosentini R. M. Martelli L. Poggi V. Viana da Fonseca A. Ferreira C. Rios S. Cordeiro D. Ramos C. Molina-Gómez F. Coelho C. Logar J. Maček M. Oblak A. Ozcep F. Bozbey I. Oztoprak S. Sargin S. Aysal N. Oser C. Kelesoglu M. K. 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2021,19(10):4013-4057
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Microzonation for earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard is the subdivision of a territory at a municipal or submunicipal scale in areas characterized by the... 相似文献
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Bozzoni F. Bonì R. Conca D. Lai C. G. Zuccolo E. Meisina C. 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2021,19(10):4059-4082
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Mapping large territories for earthquake-induced soil liquefaction hazard may sound like an oxymoron since soil liquefaction is by itself a spatially highly... 相似文献
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Ground deformation monitoring by using the Permanent Scatterers Technique: The example of the Oltrepo Pavese (Lombardia, Italy) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The applicability of the Permanent Scatterers Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (PSInSAR) technique for detecting and monitoring ground displacements was tested in the Oltrepo Pavese territory (Northern Italy, southern Lombardia), which could be representative of similar geological contexts in the Italian Apennines. The study area, which extends for almost 1100 km2, is characterized by a complex geological and structural setting and the presence of clay-rich sedimentary formations. These characteristics make the Oltrepo Pavese particularly prone to several geological hazards: shallow and deep landslides, subsidence and swelling/shrinkage of the clayey soils. The PSInSAR technique used in this study overcomes most of the limitations of conventional interferometric approaches by identifying, within the area of interest, a set of “radar benchmarks” (PS), where very precise displacement measurements can be carried out. More than 90,000 PS were identified by processing Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images acquired from 1992 to 2001 by the European Remote Sensing satellites (ERS). The PSInSAR application at a sub-regional scale detected slow ground deformations ranging from + 5 to − 16 mm/year, and resulting from various processes (landslides, swelling/shrinkage of clay soils and water pumping). The PS displacements were analysed by collecting data obtained through geological, geomorphologic field surveys, geotechnical analysis of the soils and the information was integrated within a landslide inventory and the damaged building inventory. Despite the limited number of landslide bodies with PS (7% of the inventoried landslides), the PS data helped to revise the state of activity of several landslides. Furthermore, some previously unknown unstable slopes were detected. Two areas of uplift and two areas of subsidence were identified. 相似文献
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Fusco Francesco Bordoni Massimiliano Tufano Rita Vivaldi Valerio Meisina Claudia Valentino Roberto Bittelli Marco De Vita Pantaleone 《Natural Hazards》2022,114(1):907-939
Natural Hazards - Assessing hazard of rainfall-induced shallow landslides represents a challenge for the risk management of urbanized areas for which the setting up of early warning systems, based... 相似文献
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