Effect of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy)     

E. Napolitano  F. Fusco  R. L. Baum  J. W. Godt  P. De Vita 《Landslides》2016,13(5):967-983

Mountainous areas surrounding the Campanian Plain and the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy) are among the most risky areas of Italy due to the repeated occurrence of rainfall-induced debris flows along ash-fall pyroclastic soil-mantled slopes. In this geomorphological framework, rainfall patterns, hydrological processes taking place within multi-layered ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and soil antecedent moisture status are the principal factors to be taken into account to assess triggering rainfall conditions and the related hazard. This paper presents the outcomes of an experimental study based on integrated analyses consisting of the reconstruction of physical models of landslides, in situ hydrological monitoring, and hydrological and slope stability modeling, carried out on four representative source areas of debris flows that occurred in May 1998 in the Sarno Mountain Range. The hydrological monitoring was carried out during 2011 using nests of tensiometers and Watermark pressure head sensors and also through a rainfall and air temperature recording station. Time series of measured pressure head were used to calibrate a hydrological numerical model of the pyroclastic soil mantle for 2011, which was re-run for a 12-year period beginning in 2000, given the availability of rainfall and air temperature monitoring data. Such an approach allowed us to reconstruct the regime of pressure head at a daily time scale for a long period, which is representative of about 11 hydrologic years with different meteorological conditions. Based on this simulated time series, average winter and summer hydrological conditions were chosen to carry out hydrological and stability modeling of sample slopes and to identify Intensity-Duration rainfall thresholds by a deterministic approach. Among principal results, the opposing winter and summer antecedent pressure head (soil moisture) conditions were found to exert a significant control on intensity and duration of rainfall triggering events. Going from winter to summer conditions requires a strong increase of intensity and/or duration to induce landslides. The results identify an approach to account for different hazard conditions related to seasonality of hydrological processes inside the ash-fall pyroclastic soil mantle. Moreover, they highlight another important factor of uncertainty that potentially affects rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides reconstructed by empirical approaches.  相似文献   

Tracing the star stream through M31 using planetary nebula kinematics     

H. R. Merrett  K. Kuijken  M. R. Merrifield  A. J. Romanowsky  N. G. Douglas  N. R. Napolitano  M. Arnaboldi  M. Capaccioli  K. C. Freeman  O. Gerhard  N. W. Evans  M. I. Wilkinson  C. Halliday  T. J. Bridges  D. Carter 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,346(4):L62-L66

We present a possible orbit for the Southern Stream of stars in M31, which connects it to the Northern Spur. Support for this model comes from the dynamics of planetary nebulae (PNe) in the disc of M31: analysis of a new sample of 2611 PNe obtained using the Planetary Nebula Spectrograph reveals ∼20 objects with kinematics inconsistent with the normal components of the galaxy, but which lie at the right positions and velocities to connect the two photometric features via this orbit. The satellite galaxy M32 is coincident with the stream both in position and velocity, adding weight to the hypothesis that the stream comprises its tidal debris.  相似文献   

A detailed view on the kinematics of candidate intermediate luminosity early‐type galaxies with a lack of dark matter     

G. Covone  N.R. Napolitano 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2004,325(2):104-107

In several nearby L ∼ L_* early‐type galaxies, recent observations at large radii have shown indications of a lack of dark matter, substantially at odds with the prediction from the Cold Dark Matter (CDM) hierarchical merger models. Here we discuss a pilot observational project for the study of the internal kinematical and dynamical properties of this remarkable sample of galaxies. Using the VIMOS‐IFU in its high spectral resolution mode, it would be possible to investigate the regions up to ∼1.2 R_e, taking advantage of the much larger field of view and telescope diameter. This will allow to disclose the presence of any kinematical substructures which could affect the conclusion on the mass modeling and definitely clarify the inner structure of this particular class of early‐type galaxies. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

The Planetary Nebula Spectrograph elliptical galaxy survey: the dark matter in NGC 4494     

N. R. Napolitano †  A. J. Romanowsky  L. Coccato  M. Capaccioli †  N. G. Douglas  E. Noordermeer  O. Gerhard  M. Arnaboldi  F. De Lorenzi  K. Kuijken  M. R. Merrifield  E. O'Sullivan  A. Cortesi  P. Das  K. C. Freeman 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,393(2):329-353

We present new Planetary Nebula Spectrograph observations of the ordinary elliptical galaxy NGC 4494, resulting in positions and velocities of 255 planetary nebulae out to seven effective radii (25 kpc). We also present new wide-field surface photometry from MMT/Megacam, and long-slit stellar kinematics from VLT/FORS2. The spatial and kinematical distributions of the planetary nebulae agree with the field stars in the region of overlap. The mean rotation is relatively low, with a possible kinematic axis twist outside  1 R _e  . The velocity dispersion profile declines with radius, though not very steeply, down to  ∼70 km s⁻¹  at the last data point.
We have constructed spherical dynamical models of the system, including Jeans analyses with multi-component Λ cold dark matter (CDM) motivated galaxies as well as logarithmic potentials. These models include special attention to orbital anisotropy, which we constrain using fourth-order velocity moments. Given several different sets of modelling methods and assumptions, we find consistent results for the mass profile within the radial range constrained by the data. Some dark matter (DM) is required by the data; our best-fitting solution has a radially anisotropic stellar halo, a plausible stellar mass-to-light ratio and a DM halo with an unexpectedly low central density. We find that this result does not substantially change with a flattened axisymmetric model.
Taken together with other results for galaxy halo masses, we find suggestions for a puzzling pattern wherein most intermediate-luminosity galaxies have very low concentration haloes, while some high-mass ellipticals have very high concentrations. We discuss some possible implications of these results for DM and galaxy formation.  相似文献   

Comparison of methodologies for flood rainfall thresholds estimation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

V. Montesarchio  F. Napolitano  M. Rianna  E. Ridolfi  F. Russo  S. Sebastianelli 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(1):909-934

  相似文献   

Can the Intermediate Western Boundary Current recirculation trigger the Vitória Eddy formation?     

Napolitano  Dante C.  Rocha  Cesar B.  da Silveira  Ilson C. A.  Simoes-Sousa  Iury T.  Flierl  Glenn R. 《Ocean Dynamics》2021,71(3):281-292

Ocean Dynamics - South of the Vitória-Trindade Ridge, a seamount chain off East Brazil, the Brazil Current (BC) meanders cyclonically within Tubarão Bight, occasionally forming the...  相似文献   

A relocatable ocean model in support of environmental emergencies     

Michela De Dominicis  Silvia Falchetti  Francesco Trotta  Nadia Pinardi  Luca Giacomelli  Ernesto Napolitano  Leopoldo Fazioli  Roberto Sorgente  Patrick J. Haley Jr.  Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux  Flavio Martins  Michele Cocco 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(5):667-688

During the Costa Concordia emergency case, regional, subregional, and relocatable ocean models have been used together with the oil spill model, MEDSLIK-II, to provide ocean currents forecasts, possible oil spill scenarios, and drifters trajectories simulations. The models results together with the evaluation of their performances are presented in this paper. In particular, we focused this work on the implementation of the Interactive Relocatable Nested Ocean Model (IRENOM), based on the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), for the Costa Concordia emergency and on its validation using drifters released in the area of the accident. It is shown that thanks to the capability of improving easily and quickly its configuration, the IRENOM results are of greater accuracy than the results achieved using regional or subregional model products. The model topography, and to the initialization procedures, and the horizontal resolution are the key model settings to be configured. Furthermore, the IRENOM currents and the MEDSLIK-II simulated trajectories showed to be sensitive to the spatial resolution of the meteorological fields used, providing higher prediction skills with higher resolution wind forcing.  相似文献   

Raised coastal terraces along the Ionian Sea coast of northern Calabria, Italy, suggest space and time variability of tectonic uplift rates   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

E. Santoro  M.E. Mazzella  L. Ferranti  A. Randisi  E. Napolitano  S. Rittner  U. Radtke 《Quaternary International》2009,206(1-2):78

A detailed study of uplifted Middle–Late Pleistocene marine terraces on the eastern side of northern Calabria, southern Italy, provides insights into the temporal and spatial scale variability of vertical displacement rates over a time span of 400 ka. Calabria is located in the frontal orogen of southern Italy above the westerly-plunging Ionian slab, and a combination of lithospheric, crustal, and surface processes concurred to rapid Late Quaternary uplift. Eleven terrace orders and a raised Holocene beach were mapped up to 480 m a.s.l., and were correlated between the coastal slopes of Pollino and Sila mountain ranges across the Sibari Plain, facing the Ionian Sea side of northeastern Calabria. Precise corrections were applied to the measured shoreline angles in order to account for uncertainty in measurement, erosion of marine deposits, recent debris shedding, and bathymetric range of markers. Radiometric (ESR and ¹⁴C) dating of shells provides a crono-stratigraphic scheme, although many samples were found to be resedimented in younger terraces. Terrace T4, whose inner margin stands at elevations of 94–130 m, is assigned to MIS 5.5 (124 ka), based on new ESR dating and previous amino acid racemization estimations. The underlying terraces T3, T2 and T1 are attributed to MIS 5.3 (100 ka), 5.1 (80 ka) and 3 (60 ka), as inferred from their relative position supplemented by ESR and ¹⁴C age determinations. The age of higher terraces is poorly constrained, but conceivably is tracked back to MIS 11 (400 ka). The reconstructed depositional sequence of terraces attributed to MIS 5.5 and 7 reveals two regressive marine cycles separated by an alluvial fanglomerate, which, given the steady uplift regime, points to minor sub-orbital sea-level changes during interstadial highstands. Based on the terrace chronology, uplift in the last 400 ka occurred at an average rate of 1 mm/a, but was characterized by the alternation of more rapid (up to 3.5 mm/a) and slower (down to 0.5 mm/a) periods of displacement. Spatial variability in uplift rates is recorded by the deformation profile of terraces parallel to the coast, which document the growth of local fold structures.  相似文献   

Fluvial system dynamics derived from distributed sediment budgets: perspectives from an uncertainty‐bounded application          下载免费PDF全文

Peter W. Downs  Scott R. Dusterhoff  Glen T. Leverich  Philip J. Soar  Michael B. Napolitano 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(6):1335-1354

The utility of sediment budget analysis is explored in revealing spatio‐temporal changes in the sediment dynamics and morphological responses of a fluvial system subject to significant human impacts during the recent Anthropocene. Sediment budgets require a data‐intensive approach to represent spatially‐differentiated impacts adequately and are subject to numerous estimation uncertainties. Here, field and topographic surveys, historical data, numerical modelling and a representative‐area extrapolation method are integrated to construct a distributed, process‐based sediment budget that addresses historical legacy factors for the highly regulated Lagunitas Creek (213 km²), California, USA, for the period 1983–2008. Independent corroboration methods and error propagation analysis produce an uncertainty assessment unique to a catchment of this size. Current sediment yields of ~20 000 t a^‐1 ± 6000 t a^‐1 equate to unit rates of ~300 t km^‐2 a^‐1 ± 90 t km^‐2 a^‐1 over the effective sediment contributing area of 64 km². This is comparable with yields associated with early Euro‐American settlement in the catchment, despite loss of sediment supply upstream of the two large dams. It occurs because ~57% of the sediment is now derived from incision‐related channel erosion. Further, the highly efficient routing of channel‐derived sediments in these incised channels suggests an efflux of 84% of contemporary sediment production, contrasting with the efflux of ≈10–30% reported for unregulated agricultural catchments. The results highlight that sediment budgets for regulated rivers must accommodate channel morphological responses to avoid significantly misrepresenting catchment yields, and that volumetric precision in sediment budgets may best be improved by repeat, spatially dense, channel cross‐section surveys. Human activities have impacted every aspect of the sediment dynamics of Lagunitas Creek (production, storage, transfer, rates of movement through storage), confirming that, while distributed sediment budgets are data demanding and subject to numerous error sources, the approach can provide valuable insights into Anthropocene fluvial geomorphology. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal predictability of the duration of flooding above National Weather Service flood warning levels across the U.S. Midwest     

Andrea Neri  Gabriele Villarini  Francesco Napolitano 《水文研究》2020,34(23):4505-4511

Unpreparedness is often the main cause of the economic and social damages caused by floods. To mitigate these impacts, short-term forecasting has been the focus of several studies during the past decades; however, less effort has been paid to flood predictions at longer lead times. Here, we use forecasts by six models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble project with a lead time from 0.5 to 9.5 months to predict the seasonal duration of floods above four National Weather Service flood categories (“action,” “flood,” “moderate” and “major”). We focus on 202 U.S. Geological Survey gage stations across the U.S. Midwest and use a statistical framework which considers precipitation, temperature, and antecedent wetness conditions as predictors. We find that the prediction skill of the duration of floods for the “action” and “flood” categories is overall low, largely because of the low accuracy of the climate forecasts rather than of the errors introduced by the statistical models. The prediction skill slightly improves when considering the shortest lead times (i.e., from 0.5 to 2.5 months) during spring in the Northern Great Plains, where antecedent wetness conditions play an important role in influencing the generation of floods. It is very difficult to draw strong conclusions with respect to the “moderate” and “major” flood categories because of the limited number of available events.  相似文献