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A probabilistic technique is developed for assessing water level in the mouth reach of the Ural River in the course of interaction between the river runoff and irregular rises in the Caspian Sea level (positive setups) at the predicted background sea levels of –26.5 and –26.0 m abs. 相似文献
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L. P. Ostroumova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2017,42(12):792-802
Upsurges and downsurges in the Don River mouth are investigated using the observational data of the standard hydrometeorological network. The characteristics ofsurges are determined, andthe catalog of maximum annual dangerous surges is compiled for the observation points in the estuarine offshore zone and mouth reach of the Don River from the beginning of observations till 2014. The series of the maximum annual upsurges and downsurges at marine gaging stations in the Taganrog Bay are formed and statistically processed. The distribution of surges along the Taganrog Bay is analyzed. Catastrophic surges which cause adverse and severe events are identified as well as the qualitative and quaniiiaiive patterns of surge peneiraiion to the Don River mouth. The coefficients of upsurges and downsurges, the intensity of their attenuation, and water levels with the probability of 0.1, 1, and 50% at different river runoff are calculated at all gaging stations in the Don estuary for specific upsurges and downsurges. The results of test computations of surges for the specific point in the Taganrog Bay for 2013-2015 based on the numerical hydrodynamic model of the Sea of Azov are compared with observational data. The possibility was revealed of forecasting downsurges and upsurges based on synoptic conditions over the Sea of Azov with the lead time of three days using hydrodynamic models that allowed developing the prediction scheme of surge transformation calculation. 相似文献
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Data of the State Observation Network on the water run-off for the whole observation period and on water levels in the delta
of the Volga River for the period of regulated run-off regime (1961–2006) are analyzed. Periods of various water content are
revealed and the current tendency of long-term run-off changes is established with the help of difference-integral curve of
recovered natural annual run-off. Periods of various degree of man’s impact on the run-off, entering the delta of the Volga
River, are marked out. The role of irretrievable anthropogenic loss and the influence of run-off regulation on its intraannual
distribution are assessed. Regularities of seasonal and long-term water level changes in the delta of the Volga River are
revealed. The run-off regulation effect on the intraannual distribution of water levels is assessed. The influence of the
water divider on the redistribution of the run-off and water levels in the delta is shown. The effect of the current increase
in the Caspian Sea level on the penetration of the backwater into the delta of the Volga River is revealed. 相似文献
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V. P. Evstigneev D. V. Mishin L. P. Ostroumova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(8):520-529
A statistical model of the spatial coupling of precipitation over the Sea of Azov is constructed using SEVIRI radiometer data. The set of four locations of precipitation field was identified to retrieve integral precipitation layer over the sea. It was found that the model can be applied for the water-balance studies of the Sea of Azov based on data from coastal weather stations. 相似文献
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