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Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Jean-Jacques Peucat Johildo Salomão Figueiredo Barbosa Ivana Conceição de Araújo Pinho Jean-Louis Paquette Hervé Martin C. Mark Fanning Angela Beatriz de Menezes Leal Simone Cruz 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2011,31(4):397-413
This work provides five new U–Pb zircon dating and the corresponding Nd isotope data for felsic granulites from the south Itabuna-Salvador-Curaçá Block (ISCB), in the São Francisco Craton, Brazil. Three major sets of felsic granulites can be recognised. The oldest set is tonalitic in composition and of TTG affinity. It is Archaean in age with magmatic zircon cores dated at 2675 ± 11 Ma by LA-ICPMS and up to ca 2.7–2.9 Ga by SHRIMP on an other sample. It exhibits epsilon Nd values between ?8 and ?11 at 2.1 Ga. This Nd signature is similar to that of granulites found in the western Archaean Jequié Block. Cartographically, this set of Archaean terrains represents at least 50% of the granulites in the studied area. The second set corresponds to a Palaeoproterozoic calc-alkaline tonalitic suite with zircon ages from 2019 ± 19 Ma to 2191 ± 10 Ma and epsilon Nd values between ?3 and ?4 at 2.1 Ga, corresponding partially to a newly formed crust. The third set of granulites is also Palaeoproterozoic. It is shoshonitic to monzonitic in composition and synchronous with the high grade metamorphism dated by metamorphic zircons at 2086 ± 7 Ma (average of five samples). The Nd isotope signature for this alkaline set is similar to that of the Palaeoproterozoic calc-alkaline one. Nd isotopes appear to be a very efficient tool to distinguish Archaean from Palaeoproterozoic felsic protoliths in granulitic suites of the Itabuna-Salvador-Curaçá Block (ISCB). Finally, the southern part of the ISCB is composed of a mixture of Archaean and Palaeoproterozoic protoliths, in similar amounts, suggesting that it was probably an active margin between 2.1 and 2.2 Ga located on the eastern border of the Archaean Jequié Block. A major crustal thickening process occurred at ca 2.09 Ga in the ISCB and seems significantly younger towards the west, in the Jequié granulites, where an average of 2056 ± 9 Ma is determined for the high grade event. 相似文献
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Estimating seismic demands on structures, to predict their performance level with confidence, requires explicit consideration
of the structural inelastic behaviour: to this end, the use of nonlinear static procedures is inevitably going to be favoured
over complex nonlinear time-history methods.
The currently available assessment procedures have been tested predominantly against building frames. A newly derived assessment
procedure is proposed within the scope of bridge applications, based on an innovative displacement-based adaptive pushover
technique. The procedure, which can be incorporated into a performance-based engineering philosophy, is applicable to MDOF
continuous span bridges with flexible or rigid superstructures, and for varying degrees of abutment restraint.
As a first application to determine the viability of the proposed procedure, a parametric study is conducted on a ensemble
of bridges subjected to earthquake motion. It is shown that, compared to the seismic demand estimated by means of the more
accurate nonlinear dynamic analysis tool, the novel static assessment method can lead to the attainment of satisfactory predictions,
both in terms of displacement as well as moment demand on members. 相似文献
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Traditional pushover analysis is performed subjecting the structure to monotonically increasing lateral forces with invariant distribution until a target displacement is reached; both the force distribution and target displacement are hence based on the assumption that the response is controlled by a fundamental mode, that remains unchanged throughout. However, such invariant force distributions cannot account for the redistribution of inertia forces caused by structural yielding and the associated changes in the vibration properties, including the increase of higher‐mode participation. In order to overcome such drawbacks, but still keep the simplicity of using single‐run pushover analysis, as opposed to multiple‐analyses schemes, adaptive pushover techniques have recently been proposed. In order to investigate the effectiveness of such new pushover schemes in assessing bridges subjected to seismic action, so far object of only limited scrutiny, an analytical parametric study, conducted on a suite of continuous multi‐span bridges, is carried out. The study seems to show that, with respect to conventional pushover methods, these novel single‐run approaches can lead to the attainment of improved predictions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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赣南地区石雷石英闪长岩的成因:岩石化学、副矿物微量元素、锆石U-Pb年代学与Sr-Nd-Hf同位素制约 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
石雷石英闪长岩是赣南崇-余-犹地区比较特殊的闪长质侵入体。锆石的原位U-Pb定年表明,该岩体侵位于433.5±3.4Ma。全岩主量元素特征上显示出中偏酸性(SiO2=56.92%～64.70%),富Al(Al2O3=14.10%～14.83%),富碱(Alk=6.41%～7.40%)特别是富钾(K2O=3.86%～4.85%),镁、铁含量较高,MgO:3.47%～5.95%,FeOT:5.23%～8.14%以及低磷(P2O5=0.27%～0.4%)的特点;微量元素上主要富集K、Rb、Cs等大离子亲石元素和轻稀土元素,亏损Nb、Ta、Ti、P等高场强元素。磷灰石微量元素特征上显示高度富集稀土元素特别是轻稀土元素的特征;具有Eu的负异常(δEu=0.37～0.45)。ISr位于0.7073～0.7132之间,εNd(t)变化于-8.41～-4.97之间,两阶段钕模式年龄介于1.58～1.86Ga之间,Hf同位素组成相对均一,εHf(t)主要集中变化于-8～-2之间,两阶段Hf模式年龄加权平均为1.77±0.09Ga,这些特征都暗示了该石英闪长质岩体的形成是强烈壳幔相互作用的产物,区内加里东晚期可能发生了局部的岩石圈的减薄。 相似文献
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Javier Tomasella Patrícia F. Pinho Laura S. Borma José A. Marengo Carlos A. Nobre Olga R. F. O. Bittencourt Maria C. R. Prado Daniel A. Rodriguez Luz A. Cuartas 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):723-746
It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts. 相似文献
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Using the applied element method for modelling calcium silicate brick masonry subjected to in‐plane cyclic loading 
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下载免费PDF全文 The response of calcium silicate unreinforced masonry construction to horizontal cyclic loading has recently become the focus of experimental and numerical research, given its extensive use in some areas of the world that are now exposed to induced earthquakes (eg, north of the Netherlands). To assess the seismic behaviour of such construction, a relatively wide range of modelling methodologies are available, amongst which the discrete elements approach, which takes into account the intrinsic heterogeneity of a brick‐mortar assembly, can probably be deemed as the most appropriate computational procedure. On the other hand, however, since discrete elements numerical methods are based on a discontinuum domain, often they are not able to model every stage of the structural response adequately, and because of the high computational burden required, the analysis scale should be chosen carefully. The applied element method is a relatively recent addition to the discrete elements family, with a high potential for overcoming the aforementioned limitations or difficulties. Initially conceived to model blast events and concrete structures, its use in the earthquake engineering field is, of late, increasing noticeably. In this paper, the use of the applied element method to model the in‐plane cyclic response of calcium silicate masonry walls is discussed and scrutinised, also through the comparison with experimental results of in‐plane cyclic shear‐compression tests on unreinforced masonry walls. 相似文献
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