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1.
Prospects for forecasting climate variability over the tropical Indian Ocean sector, specifically extreme positive events of the Indian Dipole Mode (IDM), with lead times of a season or more are investigated using the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled-model system. The coupled system presents biases in its climatology over the Indian Ocean sector, which include (i) warmest sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) occurring in the central equatorial basin rather than on the eastside with the eastern (western) tropical SSTs up to 1 °C too cool (warm), (ii) a too northwest lying InterTropical Convergence Zonal over the ocean in boreal fall, (iii) a thermocline shallower (deeper) than observed west of Sumatra-Java (north of Madagascar), (iv) a delay of about a month in the onset (cessation) of the southwest (southeast) monsoon in the west (east) in boreal spring (fall). These biases affect the effectiveness of the SST-clouds-shortwave radiation negative feedback, the sensitivity of SST to wind-stress perturbations, and the character of equatorial coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Despite these biases, ensemble hindcasts of the SST anomalies averaged over the eastern and western poles of the IDM for the decade 1993–2002, which included extreme positive events in 1994 and 1997/1998, are encouragingly good at 3-months lead. The onset of the 1997/1998-event is delayed by about a month, though the peak and decay are correctly timed. At 6-months lead-time, the forecast at the eastern pole deteriorates with either positive or negative false alarms generated each boreal fall. The forecast at the western pole remains good.  相似文献   
2.
Geographic information systems (GIS) have become essential tools in the public health domain, especially when it comes to monitoring and surveillance of disease. The purpose of this article is to describe and explore the benefits of using GIS to improve public health emergency response during a global pandemic and, in particular, how to effectively optimize the allocation of public health resources in a rural setting using a data-driven approach that considers the multifactorial demand for new COVID-19 testing sites. Herein, the authors present their interprofessional project as an example of such efforts to inform applications for practice. The team developed a GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis model for use by decision-makers and public health experts in similar future planning and response scenarios. Focus is placed on rural characteristics (e.g., accessibility), vulnerable populations, and daily changing conditions (e.g., COVID-19 daily case fluctuations) that create additional challenges for public health agencies and policymakers.  相似文献   
3.
This GGR biennial critical review covers developments and innovations in key analytical methods published since January 2014, relevant to the chemical, isotopic and crystallographic characterisation of geological and environmental materials. In nine selected analytical fields, publications considered to be of wide significance are summarised, background information is provided and their importance evaluated. In addition to instrumental technologies, this review also presents a summary of new developments in the preparation and characterisation of rock, microanalytical and isotopic reference materials, including a précis of recent changes and revisions to ISO guidelines for reference material characterisation and reporting. Selected reports are provided of isotope ratio determinations by both solution nebulisation MC‐ICP‐MS and laser ablation‐ICP‐MS, as well as of radioactive isotope geochronology by LA‐ICP‐MS. Most of the analytical techniques elaborated continue to provide new applications for geochemical analysis; however, it is noted that instrumental neutron activation analysis has become less popular in recent years, mostly due to the reduced availability of nuclear reactors to act as a neutron source. Many of the newer applications reported here provide analysis at increasingly finer resolution. Examples include atom probe tomography, a very sensitive method providing atomic scale information, nanoscale SIMS, for isotopic imaging of geological and biological samples, and micro‐XRF, which has a spatial resolution many orders of magnitude smaller than conventional XRF.  相似文献   
4.
This paper reports on a quantitative estimation of the risk to residents at the toe of Mount Albino, a carbonatic relief covered by shallow deposits of pyroclastic soils, which threatens the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy). The quantitative risk analysis (QRA) focuses on one type of mass transport phenomena typical for the context at hand, namely the hyperconcentrated flows. The methodological approach includes three main steps: hazard analysis, consequence analysis and risk estimation. Based on historical incident data, the hazard analysis makes use of a high-resolution digital terrain model and advanced models that incorporate relevant geological and geotechnical input data collected via in situ investigations and laboratory tests. The consequence analysis takes into account information on the exposed persons (age, gender) and their vulnerability. The estimated risk to life is calculated at the individual level (risk to the average and most exposed person). The reported procedure is one of the first QRA’s applications to instabilities which potentially affect natural slopes in Italy, and it was successfully used as technical basis for a public participatory process in Nocera Inferiore, designed and developed to support decisions about risk mitigation measures.  相似文献   
5.
Livelihoods in drylands are already challenged by the demands of climate variability, and climate change is expected to have further implications for water resource availability in these regions. This paper characterizes the vulnerability of an irrigation-dependent agricultural community located in the Elqui River Basin of Northern Chile to water and climate-related conditions in light of climate change. The paper documents the exposures and sensitivities faced by the community in light of current water shortages, and identifies their ability to manage these exposures under a changing climate. The IPCC identifies potentially increased aridity in this region with climate change; furthermore, the Elqui River is fed by snowmelt and glaciers, and its flows will be affected by a warming climate. Community vulnerability occurs within a broader physical, economic, political and social context, and vulnerability in the community varies amongst occupations, resource uses and accessibility to water resources, making some more susceptible to changing conditions in the future. This case study highlights the need for adaptation to current land and water management practices to maintain livelihoods in the face of changes many people are not expecting.  相似文献   
6.
Remote sensing is the most practical method available to managers of flood-prone areas for quantifying and mapping flood impacts. This study explored large inundation areas in the Maghna River Basin, around the northeastern Bangladesh, as determined from passive sensor LANDSAT data and the cloud-penetrating capabilities of the active sensors of the remote imaging microwave RADARSAT. This study also used passive sensor LANDSAT wet and dry images for the year 2000. Spatial resolution was 30 m by 30 m for comparisons of the inundation area with RADARSAT images. RADARSAT images with spatial resolution of 50 m by 50 m were used for frequency analysis of floods from 2000 to 2004. Time series images for 2004 were also used. RADARSAT remote sensing data, GIS data, and ground data were used for the purpose of flood monitoring, mapping and assessing. A supervised classification technique was used for this processing. They were processed for creating a maximum water extent map and for estimating inundation areas. The results of this study indicated that the maximum extent of the inundation area as estimated using RADARSAT satellite imaging was about 29, 900.72 km2 in 2004, which corresponded well with the heavy rainfall around northeast region, as seen at the Bhairab Bazar station and with the highest water level of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) Rivers. A composite of 5 years of RADARSAT inundation maps from 2000 to 2004, GIS data, and damage data, was used to create unique flood hazard maps. Using the damage data for 2004 and the GIS data, a set of damage maps was also created. These maps are expected to be useful for future planning and flood disaster management. Thus, it has been demonstrated that RADARSAT imaging data acquired over the Bangladesh have the ability to precisely assess and clarify inundation areas allowing for successful flood monitoring, mapping and disaster management.  相似文献   
7.
Understanding the source of dissolved methane in drinking‐water aquifers is critical for assessing potential contributions from hydraulic fracturing in shale plays. Shallow groundwater in the Texas portion of the Haynesville Shale area (13,000 km2) was sampled (70 samples) for methane and other dissolved light alkanes. Most samples were derived from the fresh water bearing Wilcox formations and show little methane except in a localized cluster of 12 water wells (17% of total) in a approximately 30 × 30 km2 area in Southern Panola County with dissolved methane concentrations less than 10 mg/L. This zone of elevated methane is spatially associated with the termination of an active fault system affecting the entire sedimentary section, including the Haynesville Shale at a depth more than 3.5 km, and with shallow lignite seams of Lower Wilcox age at a depth of 100 to 230 m. The lignite spatial extension overlaps with the cluster. Gas wetness and methane isotope compositions suggest a mixed microbial and thermogenic origin with contribution from lignite beds and from deep thermogenic reservoirs that produce condensate in most of the cluster area. The pathway for methane from the lignite and deeper reservoirs is then provided by the fault system.  相似文献   
8.
Assessing natural vs. anthropogenic sources of methane in drinking water aquifers is a critical issue in areas of shale oil and gas production. The objective of this study was to determine controls on methane occurrences in aquifers in the Eagle Ford Shale play footprint. A total of 110 water wells were tested for dissolved light alkanes, isotopes of methane, and major ions, mostly in the eastern section of the play. Multiple aquifers were sampled with approximately 47 samples from the Carrizo‐Wilcox Aquifer (250‐1200 m depth range) and Queen City‐Sparta Aquifer (150‐900 m depth range) and 63 samples from other shallow aquifers but mostly from the Catahoula Formation (depth <150 m). Besides three shallow wells with unambiguously microbial methane, only deeper wells show significant dissolved methane (22 samples >1 mg/L, 10 samples >10 mg/L). No dissolved methane samples exhibit thermogenic characteristics that would link them unequivocally to oil and gas sourced from the Eagle Ford Shale. In particular, the well water samples contain very little or no ethane and propane (C1/C2+C3 molar ratio >453), unlike what would be expected in an oil province, but they also display relatively heavier δ13Cmethane (>?55‰) and δDmethane (>?180‰). Samples from the deeper Carrizo and Queen City aquifers are consistent with microbial methane sourced from syndepositional organic matter mixed with thermogenic methane input, most likely originating from deeper oil reservoirs and migrating through fault zones. Active oxidation of methane pushes δ13Cmethane and δDmethane toward heavier values, whereas the thermogenic gas component is enriched with methane owing to a long migration path resulting in a higher C1/C2+C3 ratio than in the local reservoirs.  相似文献   
9.
Advances in the chemical and isotopic characterisation of geological and environmental materials can often be ascribed to technological improvements in analytical hardware. Equally, the creation of novel methods of data acquisition and interpretation, including access to better reference materials, can also be crucial components enabling important breakthroughs. This biennial review highlights key advances in either instrumentation or data acquisition and treatment, which have appeared since January 2010. This review is based on the assessments by scientists prominent in each of the given analytical fields; it is not intended as an exhaustive summary, but rather provides insight from experts of the most significant advances and trends in their given field of expertise. In contrast to earlier reviews, this presentation has been formulated into a unified work, providing a single source covering a broad spectrum of geoanalytical techniques. Additionally, some themes that were not previously emphasised, in particular thermal ionisation mass spectrometry, accelerator‐based methods and vibrational spectroscopy, are also presented in detail.  相似文献   
10.
The aim of this study is finding suitable locations for ecotourism development in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. For this, potential ecotourism sites were identified and ranked using Geographical Information System and Analytical Hierarchy Process. Five factors and 15 criteria were identified to evaluate suitability of sites. Factors and criteria were selected based on literature review, local knowledge and experts’ opinions. Considering the national and international contexts and effects of ecotourism, this study proposes treating highly suitable areas more ‘naturally’ and, for conservation programmes, creating tourist facilities in moderately suitable areas by targeting growth centres and protecting agricultural land as well as local primary activities in marginally suitable areas.  相似文献   
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