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Patricia Fortes Sofia Simões Júlia Seixas Denise Van Regemorter Francisco Ferreira 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):285-304
Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options. Policy relevance The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries. 相似文献
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Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions; however, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to the amount of change. This limits the prediction capacity of models to quantify impacts on water resources, vegetation productivity and erosion. This work circumvents this problem by analysing the sensitivity of these variables to varying degrees of temperature change (increased by up to 6·4 °C), rainfall (reduced by up to 40%) and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (increased by up to 100%). The SWAT watershed model was applied to 18 large watersheds in two contrasting regions of Portugal, one humid and one semi‐arid; incremental changes to climate variables were simulated using a stochastic weather generator. The main results indicate that water runoff, particularly subsurface runoff, is highly sensitive to these climate change trends (down by 80%). The biomass growth of most species showed a declining trend (wheat down by 40%), due to the negative impacts of increasing temperatures, dampened by higher CO2 concentrations. Mediterranean species, however, showed a positive response to milder degrees of climate change. Changes to erosion depended on the interactions between the decline in surface runoff (driving erosion rates downward) and biomass growth (driving erosion rates upward). For the milder rainfall changes, soil erosion showed a significant increasing trend in wheat fields (up to 150% in the humid watersheds), well above the recovery capacity of the soil. Overall, the results indicate a shift of the humid watersheds to acquire semi‐arid characteristics, such as more irregular river flows and increasingly marginal conditions for agricultural production. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR PARTIAL LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
IAN N. WAKELING JEFF J. MORRIS AFRC Institute of Food Research Earley Gate Whiteknights Ro Reading RG EF U.K.Zeneca Pharmaceuticals Mereside Alderley Park Macclesfiel Cheshire SK TG U.K. 《地理学报(英文版)》1993,(4)
Partial least squares (PLS) regression is a commonly used statistical technique for performingmultivariate calibration, especially in situations where there are more variables than samples. Choosingthe number of factors to include in a model is a decision that all users of PLS must make, but iscomplicated by the large number of empirical tests available. In most instances predictive ability is themost desired property of a PLS model and so interest has centred on making this choice based on aninternal validation process. A popular approach is the calculation of a cross-validated r~2 to gauge howmuch variance in the dependent variable can be explained from leave-one-out predictions. Using MonteCarlo simulations for different sizes of data set, the influence of chance effects on the cross-validationprocess is investigated. The results are presented as tables of critical values which are compared againstthe values of cross-validated r~2 obtained from the user's own data set. This gives a formal test forpredictive ability of a PLS model with a given number of dimensions. 相似文献
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Climate change is expected to effect storm runoff and erosion processes in Mediterranean watersheds at multiple spatial scales. Models are typically applied to estimate these impacts; however, the scarcity of spatially distributed data for parameterization, calibration and validation often prevents application of these models, particularly for larger catchments. This report, the first part of a two‐part article, presents an application and evaluation of the MEFIDIS model for two Mediterranean meso‐scale watersheds (115 and 290 km2) in a data‐scarce environment. A multi‐scale assessment method was used that combines quantitative validation and qualitative evaluation, consisting of three steps: (1) calibration at the small (field) scale using results from rainfall simulation experiments; (2) calibration and validation for catchment‐scale results while changing catchment‐scale parameters only (channel roughness and a parameter controlling the distribution of saturated areas); and (3) qualitative evaluation of within‐watershed erosion processes using empirical estimates of sediment delivery ratio and gully location. The results indicate that calibrating MEFIDIS at the field scale can provide reasonable results for catchment runoff and sediment export and for within‐watershed erosion processes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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H.A. Kehrig E.F.A. Palermo T.G. Seixas C.W.C. Branco I. Moreira O. Malm 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009
Methylmercury (MeHg) and trace elements (TE), mercury, selenium, cadmium, lead and copper, were determined in a microbial loop composed by three size classes of autotrophic and heterotrophic microorganism samples, 1.2–70 μm (seston, SPM), 70–290 μm (microplankton) and ≥290 μm (mesoplankton) from five sampling stations within a polluted eutrophic estuary in the Brazilian Southeast coast and one external point under the influence of the bay. TE concentrations were within the range reported for marine microorganisms from uncontaminated locations. Microplankton was primarily composed of proto-zooplankton and diatoms (>90%) while approximately 50% of mesoplankton was composed mainly of copepods. MeHg and TE in samples did not differ among the five sampling stations within the bay. Cd, Pb and Cu in seston were higher in the stations sampled inside Guanabara Bay (0.67 μg Cd g−1, 9.26 μg Pb g−1, 8.03 μg Cu g−1) than in the external one (0.17 μg Cd g−1, 3.98 μg Pb g−1 and 2.09 μg Cu g−1). Hg, MeHg and Se did not differ among the five points within the more eutrophic waters of the estuary and the external sampling station. The trophic transfer of MeHg and Se was observed between trophic levels from prey (seston and microplankton) to predator (mesoplankton). The successive amplification of the ratios of MeHg to Hg with increasing trophic levels from seston (43%), to microplankton (59%) and mesoplankton (77%) indicate that biomagnification may be occurring along the microbial food web. Selenium, that is efficiently accumulated by organisms through trophic transference, was biomagnified along the microbial food web, while Hg, Cd, Pb, Cu did not present the same behavior. Concentrations differed between the three size classes, indicating that MeHg and TE accumulation were size-dependent. MeHg and TE concentrations were not related to the taxonomic groups' composition of the planktonic microorganisms. Results suggest the importance of the role of the trophic level and microorganism size in regulating element transfers. Eutrophication dilution may provide a process-oriented explanation for lower MeHg and TE accumulation by the three size classes of microorganisms collected at the five sampling stations within the bay. 相似文献
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The impacts of climate change on storm runoff and erosion in Mediterranean watersheds are difficult to assess due to the expected increase in storm frequency coupled with a decrease in total rainfall and soil moisture, added to positive or negative changes to different types of vegetation cover. This report, the second part of a two‐part article, addresses this issue by analysing the sensitivity of runoff and erosion to incremental degrees of change (from ? 20 to + 20%) to storm rainfall, pre‐storm soil moisture, and vegetation cover, in two Mediterranean watersheds, using the MEFIDIS model. The main results point to the high sensitivity of storm runoff and peak runoff rates to changes in storm rainfall (2·2% per 1% change) and, to a lesser degree, to soil water content (?1·2% per 1% change). Catchment sediment yield shows a greater sensitivity than within‐watershed erosion rates to both parameters: 7·8 versus 4·0% per 1% change for storm rainfall, and ? 4·9 versus ? 2·3% per 1% change for soil water content, indicating an increase in sensitivity with spatial scale due to changes to sediment connectivity within the catchment. Runoff and erosion showed a relatively low sensitivity to changes in vegetation cover. Finally, the shallow soils in one of the catchments led to a greater sensitivity to changes in storm rainfall and soil moisture. Overall, the results indicate that decreasing soil moisture levels caused by climate change could be sufficient to offset the impact of greater storm intensity in Mediterranean watersheds. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Methylmercury (MeHg) and inorganic mercury (Hginorg) were evaluated in the water of a Brazilian estuary, with two size classes of plankton and seven fish species of different feeding habits. Water partition coefficients (PCs) in microplankton were fourfold higher for MeHg than for Hginorg; and water PCs in mesoplankton were 26 times higher for MeHg than Hginorg. Difference between microplankton and mesoplankton MeHg bioaccumulation factor (BAF) was higher (0.60 log units) than Hginorg BAF (0.24 log units), indicating that trophic transfer of MeHg between planktonic organisms is more efficient than Hginorg transference. MeHg concentrations, proportion of mercury as MeHg and its biotransference factors (BTFs) in the microplankton, mesoplankton and fish increased with increasing trophic level while biotic concentrations of Hginorg and proportion of mercury as Hginorg decreased thus indicating that MeHg was indeed the biomagnified species of mercury. MeHg reflected the vertical trophic guilds distribution, due to the fact that the top predator fish presented the highest concentration (0.77 μg g−1 d.w.), followed by the less voracious species (0.43 μg g−1 d.w.); while planktivorous fish presented the lowest concentrations (0.044 μg g−1 d.w.). Hginorg did not present the same behavior. Results suggest that feeding habits and trophic guild are important parameters, influencing biotransference and biomagnification processes. 相似文献
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AbstractIn this paper, we describe and analyze the co-management institutional framework at 21 Brazilian Marine Extractive Reserves (MERs) and present the dramas of its implementation from the local manager’s perspective. We categorized the governance instruments of MERs into (i) instruments for land/sea tenure and beneficiaries’ recognition, (ii) territorial use planning, (iii) institutional arenas for discussion and deliberation, as well as (iv) public policies. Although the legal arrangements of these protected areas address fundamental dimensions of governance, we present the challenges of its implementation based on the voice of local managers. The managers are the bridge between the central government and communities, dealing with the implementation of the institutional framework in a reality of multi-level and multi-scale drama: from local to national dilemmas, from organizational to structural ones. We explore these dramas and highlight the institutional dilemmas based on the paradoxes between legalism and social emancipation. 相似文献