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A new thermophysical mechanism of the Caspian Sea level variations is proposed. The mechanism incorporates the effect exerted on the dynamics of the water budget of the Caspian Sea by the nonlinear dependence of the evaporation rate on the moistening of the basin. 相似文献
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An autonomous differential equation with a random perturbing force is used as a model of level variations in Lake Kineret. The simulated trajectory, derived from this equation, qualitatively reflects the specific features of level variations in Lake Kineret. A tentative forecast is given for reaching the minimal level. 相似文献
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Variations in Caspian Sea level are examined by using its water balance equation. Two important problems of modern hydrology are solved. The first problem consists in determining the transition probabilities from a fixed sea level to its upper (lower) equilibrium level, and the second problem involves the determination of the appropriate transition times. Detail solutions of both problems are given. 相似文献
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Nonlinear dynamics of level variations in the Caspian Sea 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Caspian Sea level variations, which have several equilibrium states, are studied by the methods of the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems. Normal monthly values of sea level according to data collected at Makhachkala gauge from 1900 to 2000 are considered. The diagnostic characteristics of dynamic chaos are used to show that sea level variations have some properties of series with chaotic behavior. A model of level variations in the Caspian Sea, comprising a system of water balance equations for the sea basin, the dynamics of river runoff, and water balance of the sea itself, is proposed. Equation of a nonlinear oscillator is derived and shown to have solutions with chaotic regimes at some combinations of parameters. 相似文献
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