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The CAESAR (Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope And River) model is used to simulate the Holocene development of a small upland catchment (4·2 km2) and the alluvial fan at its base. The model operates at a 3 m grid scale and simulates every flood over the last 9200 years, using a rainfall record reconstructed from peat bog wetness indices and land cover history derived from palynological sources. Model results show that the simulated catchment sediment discharge above the alluvial fan closely follows the climate signal, but with an increase in the amplitude of response after deforestation. The important effects of sediment storage and remobilization are shown, and findings suggest that soil creep rates may be an important control on long term (>1000 years) temperate catchment sediment yield. The simulated alluvial fan shows a complex and episodic behaviour, with frequent avulsions across the fan surface. However, there appears to be no clear link between fan response and climate or land use changes suggesting that Holocene alluvial fan dynamics may be the result of phases of sediment storage and remobilization, or instabilities and thresholds within the fan itself. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Embedding reach-scale fluvial dynamics within the CAESAR cellular automaton landscape evolution model 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2
We introduce a new computational model designed to simulate and investigate reach-scale alluvial dynamics within a landscape evolution model. The model is based on the cellular automaton concept, whereby the continued iteration of a series of local process ‘rules’ governs the behaviour of the entire system. The model is a modified version of the CAESAR landscape evolution model, which applies a suite of physically based rules to simulate the entrainment, transport and deposition of sediments. The CAESAR model has been altered to improve the representation of hydraulic and geomorphic processes in an alluvial environment. In-channel and overbank flow, sediment entrainment and deposition, suspended load and bed load transport, lateral erosion and bank failure have all been represented as local cellular automaton rules. Although these rules are relatively simple and straightforward, their combined and repeatedly iterated effect is such that complex, non-linear geomorphological response can be simulated within the model. Examples of such larger-scale, emergent responses include channel incision and aggradation, terrace formation, channel migration and river meandering, formation of meander cutoffs, and transitions between braided and single-thread channel patterns. In the current study, the model is illustrated on a reach of the River Teifi, near Lampeter, Wales, UK. 相似文献
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Anna J. Pieńkowski Roy D. Coulthard Mark F. A. Furze 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2023,52(2):145-167
Appropriate marine–terrestrial reservoir offset (ΔR) values are essential for accurate calibration of marine radiocarbon dates. However, ΔR values are only valid for the specific calibration curve that their calculation is based on. Here, we present revised ΔR values for the Marine20 calibration curve from Arctic North America, based on previously published 14C dates on pre-bomb live-collected marine molluscs (n = 124) and cetaceans (beluga whales; tooth dentine; n = 12), and bowhead whale–driftwood age comparisons from the same glacio-isostatically uplifted shorelines (n = 18). Molluscan-based ΔR are: Chukchi/Beaufort sea coasts, 265±116 14C years; NW Canadian Arctic Archipelago, 188±91 14C years; NE Baffin Island, 81±18 14C years; SE Baffin Island, 14±58 14C years; Hudson Strait, −73±64 14C years; Ungava Bay, 0±86 14C years; Foxe Basin, 175±89 14C years; Hudson Bay, −21±72 14C years; James Bay, 209±114 14C years; West Greenland, −93±111 14C years. Species-specific marine mammal ΔR terms are 107±59 14C years for beluga and 24±58 14C years for bowheads. Our revised ΔR values are applicable for as long as the same broad oceanographic conditions (circulation, ventilation) have persisted, i.e. through the Holocene. While molluscan values are applicable to other marine carbonate (e.g. foraminifera), cetacean ΔR are valid only for the species they were calculated for and should not be applied to other marine mammals. Importantly, the ΔR terms calculated here are only valid for Marine20 and should not be used with earlier or later calibration curves. 相似文献
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Jefferson S. Wong Jim E. Freer Paul D. Bates Jeff Warburton Tom J. Coulthard 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(10):1981-2003
Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events. 相似文献
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M.A. Coulthard 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1999,17(3-4):373-385
Numerical modelling has been used to investigate a variety of problems in underground mining and tunnelling: subsidence induced by longwall coal mining; stresses generated when an open stope is filled cemented backfill and the stability of exposures created during subsequent mining of adjacent stopes; the interaction of two tunnels; and the effects of under-mining a pre-existing tunnel and shaft. In each case, results from nonlinear stress analyses can be used to guide the design of excavations and rock support mechanisms. 相似文献
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Developing,choosing and using landscape evolution models to inform field‐based landscape reconstruction studies 
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下载免费PDF全文 A.J.A.M. Temme J. Armitage M. Attal Wouter van Gorp T.J. Coulthard J.M. Schoorl 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(13):2167-2183
Landscape evolution models (LEMs) are an increasingly popular resource for geomorphologists as they can operate as virtual laboratories where the implications of hypotheses about processes over human to geological timescales can be visualized at spatial scales from catchments to mountain ranges. Hypothetical studies for idealized landscapes have dominated, although model testing in real landscapes has also been undertaken. So far however, numerical landscape evolution models have rarely been used to aid field‐based reconstructions of the geomorphic evolution of actual landscapes. To help make this use more common, we review numerical landscape evolution models from the point of view of model use in field reconstruction studies. We first give a broad overview of the main assumptions and choices made in many LEMs to help prospective users select models appropriate to their field situation. We then summarize for various timescales which data are typically available and which models are appropriate. Finally, we provide guidance on how to set up a model study as a function of available data and the type of research question. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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New marine ΔR values for Arctic Canada 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Roy D. Coulthard Mark F.A. Furze Anna J. Pieńkowski F. Chantel Nixon John H. England 《Quaternary Geochronology》2010,5(4):419-434
For more than four decades, the reporting of 14C dates on marine molluscs from Arctic Canada has been notable for the lack of consistently applied marine reservoir corrections. We propose that the common approach of reporting Canadian Arctic marine 14C dates using presumed time-invariant reservoir corrections be abandoned in favour of calibration of 14C dates, using the current standard protocol. This approach best facilitates inter- and intra-regional correlation, and correlation with other geochronometers. In order to enable the consistent calibration of marine 14C dates from Arctic Canada, we analysed a 14C database of 108 marine mollusc samples collected live between 1894 and 1956, and determined regional reservoir offset values (ΔR) for eight oceanographically distinct regions. The following new ΔR values should be used for 14C calibration: NW Canadian Arctic Archipelago, 335 ± 85 yrs; Foxe Basin, 310 ± 90 yrs; NE Baffin Island, 220 ± 20 yrs; SE Baffin Island, 150 ± 60 yrs; Hudson Strait, 65 ± 60 yrs; Ungava Bay, 145 ± 95 yrs; Hudson Bay, 110 ± 65 yrs; and James Bay, 365 ± 115 yrs. 相似文献
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The Padu system of South Asia has received growing attention as an example of customary marine tenure that has survived despite rapid development and change throughout the region’s fisheries. This paper describes the Padu system as it functions at Pulicat lagoon, India, where it has enjoyed decades of legitimacy amongst its members, and has contributed to sustainable fishing. Recently, however, the Padu system has become unstable, driven by pressures of an expanding fishing population, reduced access to fishing grounds and a growing ‘shared poverty’. In spite of this, fisher loyalty to uphold the Padu system remains strong. This raises questions about the broader social, political and cultural meanings of Padu, which extend beyond access to a lucrative fishery. The paper highlights a trade-off between the benefits received through Padu membership at a societal level through collective action, and the individual costs of partaking in ‘shared poverty’, which is inherently distributed unequally amongst fishing families. The paper concludes with a discussion on the future of the Padu system in Pulicat, drawing from evolutionary pathways of other Padu systems in the region. It is suggested that, in the Pulicat case, the high social values attributed to the Padu system, alongside complex power structures, may hinder institutional adaptation. 相似文献
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Long hydroclimate records are essential elements for the assessment and management of changing freshwater resources. These records are especially important in transboundary watersheds where international cooperation is required in the joint planning and management process of shared basins. Dendrochronological techniques were used to develop a multicentury record of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) for the Stikine River basin in northern British Columbia, Canada, from moisture‐sensitive white spruce (Picea glauca) tree rings. Explaining 43% of the instrumental SWE variability, to our knowledge, this research represents the first attempt to develop long‐term snowpack reconstructions in northern British Columbia. The results indicated that 15 extreme low April 1 SWE events occurred from 1789 to the beginning of the instrumental record in 1974. The reconstruction record also shows that the occurrence of hydrological extremes in the Stikine River basin is characterized by persistent below‐average periods in SWE consistent with phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Spectral analyses indicate a very distinct in‐phase (positive) relationship between the multidecadal frequencies of variability (~40 years) extracted from the SWE tree‐ring reconstruction and other reconstructed winter and spring PDO indices. Comparison of the reconstructed SWE record with other tree‐ring‐derived PDO proxy records shows coherence at multidecadal frequencies of variability. The research has significant implications for regional watershed management by highlighting the hydrological response of the Stikine River basin to prior climate changes. 相似文献