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The index flood procedure coupled with the L‐moments method is applied to the annual flood peaks data taken at all stream‐gauging stations in Turkey having at least 15‐year‐long records. First, screening of the data is done based on the discordancy measure (Di) in terms of the L‐moments. Homogeneity of the total geographical area of Turkey is tested using the L‐moments based heterogeneity measure, H, computed on 500 simulations generated using the four parameter Kappa distribution. The L‐moments analysis of the recorded annual flood peaks data at 543 gauged sites indicates that Turkey as a whole is hydrologically heterogeneous, and 45 of 543 gauged sites are discordant which are discarded from further analyses. The catchment areas of these 543 sites vary from 9·9 to 75121 km2 and their mean annual peak floods vary from 1·72 to 3739·5 m3 s?1. The probability distributions used in the analyses, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method are the general extreme values (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type III (PE3), generalized Pareto (GPA), and five‐parameter Wakeby (WAK). Based on the L‐moment ratio diagrams and the |Zdist|‐statistic criteria, the GEV distribution is identified as the robust distribution for the study area (498 gauged sites). Hence, for estimation of flood magnitudes of various return periods in Turkey, a regional flood frequency relationship is developed using the GEV distribution. Next, the quantiles computed at all of 543 gauged sites by the GEV and the Wakeby distributions are compared with the observed values of the same probability based on two criteria, mean absolute relative error and determination coefficient. Results of these comparisons indicate that both distributions of GEV and Wakeby, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method, are adequate in predicting quantile estimates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The parameter estimation methods of (1) moments, (2) maximum‐likelihood, (3) probability‐weighted moments (PWM) and (4) self‐determined PWM are applied to the probability distributions of Gumbel, general extreme values, three‐parameter log‐normal (LN3), Pearson‐3 and log‐Pearson‐3. The special method of computing parameters so as to make the sample skewness coefficient zero is also applied to LN3, and hence, altogether 21 candidate distributions resulted. The parameters of these distributions are computed first by original sample series of 14 successive‐duration annual extreme rainfalls recorded at a rain‐gauging station. Next, the parameters are scaled by first‐degree semi‐log or log‐log polynomial regressions versus rainfall durations from 5 to 1440 min (24 h). Those distributions satisfying the divergence criterion for frequency curves are selected as potential distributions, whose better‐fit ones are determined by a conjunctive evaluation of three goodness‐of‐fit tests. Frequency tables, frequency curves and intensity–duration–frequency curves are the outcome. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThe index flood method of the regional L-moments approach is adapted to annual maximum rainfall (AMR) series of successively increasing durations from 5 minutes to 24 hours. In Turkey, there are 14 such AMRs having standard durations of 5, 10, 15, 30, 60, 120, 180, 240, 300, 360, 480, 720, 1080 and 1440 min. The parameters of the probability distributions found suitable for these AMR series in a homogeneous region need to be adjusted so that their quantile functions will not cross each other over the entire range of probabilities. This adjustment is done so as to make (1) the derivative of the quantile function with respect to the Gumbel reduced variate of a longer-duration AMR be greater than or equal to that of the shorter-duration AMR, and (2) the quantile of a longer-duration AMR be greater than that of the shorter-duration AMR, both to be satisfied for any specific probability. Accordingly, the parameters of a probability distribution fitted to some AMR series must either increase or decrease or be constant with respect to increasing rainstorm duration; and the parameters of different distributions fitted to two sequential AMR series must be interrelated. The index flood method by the L-moments approach modified in such manner for successive-duration AMR series is applied to the Inland Anatolia region of Turkey using data recorded at 31 rain-gauging stations with recording lengths from 31 to 66 years.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione 相似文献
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Abstract A procedure to identify sets of operational rules for gated spillways for optimal flood routing management of artificial reservoirs is proposed. The flood retention storage of a dam having a gated flood spillway is divided into 15 sub-storages whose surface elevations are identified as critical levels. The most suitable operation set for the downstream conditions and for the dam can be chosen from many derived operation sets. The spillway gates are operated in an optimum way for any floods from very small magnitudes to the probable maximum flood (PMF), without having to forecast the actual magnitude of the incoming flood hydrograph. Decision floods are formed by dividing the PMF into 15 sub-hydrographs by 5 and 10% increments in the ranges 5–50% and 50–100% of the PMF, respectively. Many potential spillway gate openings from closed to fully open are chosen initially. As a result of a series of routing simulations of 15 decision floods, a set of 15 gate openings is determined such that all floods from very small magnitudes to the PMF may be routed without overtopping the dam crest. Next, a few more 15-stage operation rules are determined such that the gate openings of the initial stages are decreased as their critical levels are increased stepwise, with the objective of attenuating smaller floods more effectively and releasing higher outflows for larger floods close to and including the PMF. The developed model is applied to the Catalan and Aslantas dams in Turkey, both of which serve for flood mitigation as well as hydropower generation. Citation Haktanir, T., Citakoglu, H., and Acanal, N., 2013. Fifteen-stage operation of gated spillways for flood routing management through artificial reservoirs. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1013–1031. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Montanari 相似文献
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Stochastic analyses of maximum daily rainfall series recorded at two stations across the Mediterranean Sea 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Independence, stationarity, homogeneity, trend, and periodicity tests are applied on 48-year-long complete and 79-year-long incomplete maximum daily rainfall series recorded at Alexandria, Egypt, and on 61-year-long maximum daily rainfall series recorded at Antalya, Turkey, which are located at the southeastern and northeastern shores of the Mediterranean Sea. The results indicate no significant trend and no periodicity in mean, and both series are independent and homogeneous. Linear regression trend test applied to the 10 % highest part of the Alexandria series indicated a significant increasing trend. Next, frequency analysis is applied on each of these series by the probability distributions of Gumbel, general extreme-values, three-parameter log-normal, Pearson-3, log-Pearson-3, log-logistic, generalized Pareto, and Wakeby. The distributions, except for the generalized Pareto and Wakeby, pass the χ 2 and Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests at 90 % probability. By visual inspection of the plots of histograms together with the probability density functions, and by the results of the χ 2, Kolmogorov–Smirnov, and probability plot correlation coefficient tests, the general extreme-value distribution whose parameters are computed by the method of probability-weighted moments is deemed to be suitable for these two maximum daily rainfall series. 相似文献
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