Linking physiography and evaporation using the isotopic composition of river water in 16 Canadian boreal catchments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Chani Welch  Aaron A. Smith  Tricia A. Stadnyk 《水文研究》2018,32(2):170-184

Highly seasonal boreal catchments are hydrologically complex and generally data poor and, hence, are ripe for investigation using tracer‐aided hydrologic models. The influence of physiography on isotopic metrics was assessed to identify the catchment characteristics dominating evaporative enrichment. A multiyear stable isotope of water dataset was collected at the outlets of 16 boreal catchments in central Canada ranging in area from 12 to 15,282 km². Physiographic characteristics were obtained through raster analysis of freely available land cover images, stream networks, and digital elevation models. Correlation analysis indicated that as the percentage coverage of open water increased, so too did the evaporative effects observed at the catchment outlet. Correlation to wetland metrics indicated that increasing the percentage coverage of wetlands can reduce or increase evaporative effects observed, depending on the isotopic metric used and the corresponding drainage density, catchment slope, and presence of headwater lakes. The slopes of river evaporative‐mixing lines appear to reflect multifaceted relationships, strongest between catchment slope, headwater lakes, and connected wetlands, whereas mean line‐conditioned excess is more directly linked to physiographic variables. Hence, the slopes of river evaporative‐mixing lines and mean line‐conditioned excess are not interchangeable metrics of evaporative enrichment in a catchment. Relationships identified appear to be independent of catchment scale. These results suggest that adequate inclusion of the distribution of open water throughout a catchment, adequate representation of wetland processes, catchment slope, and drainage density are critical characteristics to include in tracer‐aided hydrologic models in boreal environments in order to minimize structural uncertainty.  相似文献   

Incorporating inland flooding into hurricane evacuation decision support modeling     

Yang  Kun  Davidson  Rachel A.  Vergara  Humberto  Kolar  Randall L.  Dresback  Kendra M.  Colle  Brian A.  Blanton  Brian  Wachtendorf  Tricia  Trivedi  Jennifer  Nozick  Linda K. 《Natural Hazards》2019,96(2):857-878

Natural Hazards - Formal engineering hurricane evacuation studies have not typically considered inland flooding explicitly, though it has been shown repeatedly to be a major cause of damage and...  相似文献   

On the value of isotope-enabled hydrological model calibration     

Tricia A. Stadnyk  T. L. Holmes 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(9):1525-1538

ABSTRACT

Calibration of hydrological models is challenging in high-latitude regions where hydrometric data are minimal. Process-based models are needed to predict future changes in water supply, yet often with high amounts of uncertainty, in part, from poor calibrations. We demonstrate the utility of stable isotopes (¹⁸O, ²H) as data employed for improving the amount and type of information available for model calibration using the isoWATFLOOD^TM model. We show that additional information added to calibration does not hurt model performance and can improve simulation of water volume. Isotope-enabled calibration improves long-term validation over traditional flow-only calibrated models and offers additional feedback on internal flowpaths and hydrological storages that can be useful for informing internal water distribution and model parameterization. The inclusion of isotope data in model calibration reduces the number of realistic parameter combinations, resulting in more constrained model parameter ranges and improved long-term simulation of large-scale water balance.  相似文献   

Climate change beliefs, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation among farmers in the Midwestern United States     

J. Gordon Arbuckle Jr.  Linda Stalker Prokopy  Tonya Haigh  Jon Hobbs  Tricia Knoot  Cody Knutson  Adam Loy  Amber Saylor Mase  Jean McGuire  Lois Wright Morton  John Tyndall  Melissa Widhalm 《Climatic change》2013,117(4):943-950

A February 2012 survey of almost 5,000 farmers across a region of the U.S. that produces more than half of the nation’s corn and soybean revealed that 66 % of farmers believed climate change is occurring (8 % mostly anthropogenic, 33 % equally human and natural, 25 % mostly natural), while 31 % were uncertain and 3.5 % did not believe that climate change is occurring. Results of initial analyses indicate that farmers’ beliefs about climate change and its causes vary considerably, and the relationships between those beliefs, concern about the potential impacts of climate change, and attitudes toward adaptive and mitigative action differ in systematic ways. Farmers who believed that climate change is occurring and attributable to human activity were significantly more likely to express concern about impacts and support adaptive and mitigative action. On the other hand, farmers who attributed climate change to natural causes, were uncertain about whether it is occurring, or did not believe that it is occurring were less concerned, less supportive of adaptation, and much less likely to support government and individual mitigative action. Results suggest that outreach with farmers should account for these covariances in belief, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation.  相似文献   

International boundaries: Fresh perspectives     

Tricia Ryan 《GeoJournal》1991,23(3):287-287

Reports

International boundaries: Fresh perspectivesSecond international boundaries research unit conference  相似文献   

Towards radiocarbon calibration beyond 28 ka using speleothems from the Bahamas     

Dirk L. Hoffmann  J. Warren Beck  David A. Richards  Peter L. Smart  Joy S. Singarayer  Tricia Ketchmark  Chris J. Hawkesworth 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2010,289(1-2):1-10

We present a new speleothem record of atmospheric Δ¹⁴C between 28 and 44 ka that offers considerable promise for resolving some of the uncertainty associated with existing radiocarbon calibration curves for this time period. The record is based on a comprehensive suite of AMS ¹⁴C ages, using new low-blank protocols, and U–Th ages using high precision MC-ICPMS procedures. Atmospheric Δ¹⁴C was calculated by correcting ¹⁴C ages with a constant dead carbon fraction (DCF) of 22.7 ± 5.9%, based on a comparison of stalagmite ¹⁴C ages with the IntCal04 (Reimer et al., 2004) calibration curve between 15 and 11 ka. The new Δ¹⁴C speleothem record shows similar structure and amplitude to that derived from Cariaco Basin foraminifera (Hughen et al., 2004, 2006), and the match is further improved if the latter is tied to the most recent Greenland ice core chronology (Svensson et al., 2008). These data are however in conflict with a previously published ¹⁴C data set for a stalagmite record from the Bahamas — GB-89-24-1 (Beck et al., 2001), which likely suffered from ¹⁴C analytical blank subtraction issues in the older part of the record. The new Bahamas speleothem ?¹⁴C data do not show the extreme shifts between 44 and 40 ka reported in the previous study (Beck et al., 2001). Causes for the observed structure in derived atmospheric Δ¹⁴C variation based on the new speleothem data are investigated with a suite of simulations using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Data-model comparison indicates that major fluctuations in atmospheric ?¹⁴C during marine isotope stage 3 is primarily a function of changes in geomagnetic field intensity, although ocean–atmosphere system reorganisation also played a supporting role.  相似文献   

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment in water budgets simulated by the variable infiltration capacity model for Canadian subarctic watersheds     

Rajtantra Lilhare  Scott Pokorny  Stephen J. Déry  Tricia A. Stadnyk  Kristina A. Koenig 《水文研究》2020,34(9):2057-2075

In this study, we evaluate uncertainties propagated through different climate data sets in seasonal and annual hydrological simulations over 10 subarctic watersheds of northern Manitoba, Canada, using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Further, we perform a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the VIC model using a robust and state-of-the-art approach. The VIC model simulations utilize the recently developed variogram analysis of response surfaces (VARS) technique that requires in this application more than 6,000 model simulations for a 30-year (1981–2010) study period. The method seeks parameter sensitivity, identifies influential parameters, and showcases streamflow sensitivity to parameter uncertainty at seasonal and annual timescales. Results suggest that the Ensemble VIC simulations match observed streamflow closest, whereas global reanalysis products yield high flows (0.5–3.0 mm day⁻¹) against observations and an overestimation (10–60%) in seasonal and annual water balance terms. VIC parameters exhibit seasonal importance in VARS, and the choice of input data and performance metrics substantially affect sensitivity analysis. Uncertainty propagation due to input forcing selection in each water balance term (i.e., total runoff, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration) is examined separately to show both time and space dimensionality in available forcing data at seasonal and annual timescales. Reliable input forcing, the most influential model parameters, and the uncertainty envelope in streamflow prediction are presented for the VIC model. These results, along with some specific recommendations, are expected to assist the broader VIC modelling community and other users of VARS and land surface schemes, to enhance their modelling applications.  相似文献