Using land cover changes and demographic data to improve hydrological modeling in the Sahel          下载免费PDF全文

Jean Emmanuel Paturel  Gil Mahé  Pierre Diello  Bruno Barbier  Alain Dezetter  Claudine Dieulin  Harouna Karambiri  Hamma Yacouba  Amadou Maiga 《水文研究》2017,31(4):811-824

At the beginning of the drought in the Sahel in the 1970s and 1980s, rainfall decreased markedly, but runoff coefficients and in some cases, absolute runoff increased. This situation was due to the conversion of the land cover from natural vegetation with a low annual runoff coefficient, to cropland and bare soils, whose runoff coefficients are higher. Unless they are adapted, hydrological conceptual models, such as GR2M, are unable to reproduce this increase in runoff. Despite the varying environmental and climatic conditions of the West African Sahel, we show that it is possible to increase the performance of the GR2M model simulations by elaborating a time‐varying soil water holding capacity and to incorporate this value in the annual maximum amount of water to be stored in reservoir A of the model. We looked for interactions between climate, rural society, and the environment. These interactions drive land‐cover changes in the Sahel, which in turn drive the distribution of rainfall between infiltration, evaporation, and runoff and hence the water resources, which are vital in this region. We elaborated several time series of key indicators linked to these interactions. We then integrated these changes in the runoff conditions of the GR2M model through the maximum value of the reservoir capacity. We calculated annual values of water holding capacity using the annual values of four classes of land cover, natural vegetation, cultivated area, bare soil, and surface water. We then used the hydrological model with and without this time‐varying soil value of A and compared the performances of the model under the two scenarios. Whatever the calibration period used, the Nash–Sutcliffe index was always greater in the case of the time‐varying A time series.  相似文献   

Measuring runoff by plots at different scales: Understanding and analysing the sources of variation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lawani Adjadi Mounirou  Hamma Yacouba  Harouna Karambiri  Jean-Emmanuel Paturel  Gil Mahé 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2012,344(9):441-448

The decrease of runoff with the increase in area is not a new fact. The scale effect depends on the spatial and temporal variability of different factors, including the surface characteristics and hydrodynamic properties of the soil and the vegetation development. The purpose of our work is to study the relative influence of the sources of variation of runoff from a small Sahelian catchment on several types of soil surfaces features. Plots of different sizes (1, 50 and 150 m²) on cultivated soils and degraded soils (non-cultivated with three different types of crusts) were monitored for two consecutive years. The results show that the runoff coefficients of rainfall events range from 4 to 65% on cultivated soils and 16 to 96% on uncultivated bare and degraded soils. A statistical and dimensionless analysis shows that in degraded environments, the processes generating runoff on plots of 50 and 150 m² are identical and significantly different from the unit plot (1 m²). The decrease in runoff with increasing scale becomes more pronounced when rainfall duration decreases. In cultivated areas, this result is not observed. Additional measurements are needed to better understand the differences in functioning at various scales of observations.  相似文献   

Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin,West Africa          下载免费PDF全文

Djigbo Félicien Badou  Bernd Diekkrüger  Evison Kapangaziwiri  Mamadou L. Mbaye  Yacouba Yira  Emmanuel A. Lawin  Ganiyu T. Oyerinde  Abel Afouda 《水文研究》2018,32(16):2526-2542

The aim of this study was to quantify climate change impact on future blue water (BW) and green water (GW) resources as well as the associated uncertainties for 4 subbasins of the Beninese part of the Niger River Basin. The outputs of 3 regional climate models (HIRHAM5, RCSM, and RCA4) under 2 emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were downscaled for the historical period (1976–2005) and for the future (2021–2050) using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). Comparison of climate variables between these 2 periods suggests that rainfall will increase (1.7% to 23.4%) for HIRHAM5 and RCSM under both RCPs but shows mixed trends (?8.5% to 17.3%) for RCA4. Mean temperature will also increase up to 0.48 °C for HIRHAM5 and RCSM but decrease for RCA4 up to ?0.37 °C. Driven by the downscaled climate data, future BW and GW were evaluated with hydrological models validated with streamflow and soil moisture, respectively. The results indicate that GW will increase in all the 4 investigated subbasins, whereas BW will only increase in one subbasin. The overall uncertainty associated with the evaluation of the future BW and GW was quantified through the computation of the interquartile range of the total number of model realizations (combinations of regional climate models and selected hydrological models) for each subbasin. The results show larger uncertainty for the quantification of BW than GW. To cope with the projected decrease in BW that could adversely impact the livelihoods and food security of the local population, recommendations for the development of adequate adaptation strategies are briefly discussed.  相似文献   

High-density early CO₂ fluids in the ultrahigh-temperature granulites of Ihouhaouene (In Ouzzal, Algeria)     

Michel Cuney  Yacouba Coulibaly  Marie-Christine Boiron 《Lithos》2007,96(3-4):402-414

Fluid inclusion studies in rocks from the Lower Proterozoic granulites from western Hoggar (Algeria) provide new evidence for the hypothesis that a CO₂-rich, H₂O-poor fluid was present during the high-grade metamorphism. CO₂ inclusions represent the main fluid trapped in the Ihouhaouene ultrahigh-temperature (over 1000 °C) and high-pressure (10 to 14 kbar) granulites. The microthermometric and Raman microspectrometric measurements indicate that the carbonic fluid is mainly composed of CO₂ with minor amounts of CH₄ and N₂ detected in some inclusions (< 4 mol% CH₄). Carbonic fluid densities range from 1.18 to 0.57 g/cm³. The highest densities are recorded in superdense carbonic inclusions presenting evidence of the earliest trapping and they correspond to the fluid densities expected for the P–T conditions of the peak of metamorphism in the area previously determined from mineral geothermobarometers. Lower densities of carbonic fluids mainly result from the reequilibration of earlier trapped fluid inclusions during retrograde metamorphism and final uplift of the metamorphic terrane, but a new influx of carbonic fluids during the retrograde event remains possible. Carbonic fluids can be produced in situ from decarbonation reactions in interlayered impure marbles during the prograde event or derived from CO₂ flushing from underlying basic intrusions. The aqueous fluids present large variations of composition (0.5 to 30 wt.% NaCl equivalent) and densities (1.16 to 0.57 g/cm³). They clearly correspond to post-metamorphic fluids because they mainly occur along microfractures, they do not show any evidence of immiscibility with the carbonic fluids and mixed aquo-carbonic inclusions have not been observed. The percolation of aqueous fluids is related to the Pan-African tectonometamorphic event.  相似文献   

Changes in rainfall regime over Burkina Faso under the climate change conditions simulated by 5 regional climate models     

Boubacar Ibrahim  Harouna Karambiri  Jan Polcher  Hamma Yacouba  Pierre Ribstein 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1363-1381

Sahelian rainfall has recorded a high variability during the last century with a significant decrease (more than 20 %) in the annual rainfall amount since 1970. Using a linear regression model, the fluctuations of the annual rainfall from the observations over Burkina Faso during 1961–2009 period are described through the changes in the characteristics of the rainy season. The methodology is then applied to simulated rainfall data produced by five regional climate models under A1B scenario over two periods: 1971–2000 as reference period and 2021–2050 as projection period. As found with other climate models, the projected change in annual rainfall for West Africa is very uncertain. However, the present study shows that some features of the impact of climate change on rainfall regime in the region are robust. The number of the low rainfall events (0.1–5 mm/d) is projected to decrease by 3 % and the number of strong rainfall events (>50 mm/d) is expected to increase by 15 % on average. In addition, the rainy season onset is projected by all models to be delayed by one week on average and a consensus exists on the lengthening of the dry spells at about 20 %. Furthermore, the simulated relationship between changed annual rainfall amounts and the number of rain days or their intensity varies strongly from one model to another and some changes do not correspond to what is observed for the rainfall variability over the last 50 years.  相似文献