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This study explores the tradeoff relationship between the number of initial attack firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts mitigating the probability of human-made fires in the Republic of Korea, where most fires are caused by human activities. To examine this tradeoff relationship, we develop a hybrid model that combines a robust optimization model with a stochastic simulation model. The robust optimization minimizes the expected number of fires not receiving a pre-defined response, such as the number of firefighting resources that must arrive at the fire within half an hour, subject to budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number and location of fires. The simulation model produces a set of fire scenarios in which a combination of number, location, ignition time, and intensity of fires occur. Results show that fire ignition prevention is as cost-effective as initial attack firefighting resources given the current budget in the Republic of Korea for reducing the expected number of fires not covered by the predefined response. The mixed policy of fire suppression and fire prevention may produce some gains in efficiency relative to the dominant policy of strong fire suppression strategies. 相似文献
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Jessica L. Till Yohan Guyodo France Lagroix Guillaume Morin Nicolas Menguy Georges Ona-Nguema 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2017,349(2):63-70
The oriented chains of nanoscale Fe-oxide particles produced by magnetotactic bacteria are a striking example of biomineralization. Several distinguishing features of magnetite particles that comprise bacterial magnetosomes have been proposed to collectively constitute a biosignature of magnetotactic bacteria (Thomas-Keprta et al., 2001). These features include high crystallinity, chemical purity, a single-domain magnetic structure, well-defined crystal morphology, and arrangement of particles in chain structures. Here, we show that magnetite derived from the inorganic breakdown of nanocrystalline goethite exhibits magnetic properties and morphologies remarkably similar to those of biogenic magnetite from magnetosomes. During heating in reducing conditions, oriented nanogoethite aggregates undergo dehydroxylation and transform into stoichiometric magnetite. We demonstrate that highly crystalline single-domain magnetite with euhedral grain morphologies produced abiogenically from goethite meets several of the biogenicity criteria commonly used for the identi?cation of magnetofossils. Furthermore, the suboxic conditions necessary for magnetofossil preservation in sediments are conducive to the reductive alteration of nanogoethite, as well as the preservation of detrital magnetite originally formed from goethite. The findings of this study have potential implications for the identification of biogenic magnetite, particularly in older sediments where diagenesis commonly disrupts the chain structure of magnetosomes. Our results indicate that isolated magnetofossils cannot be positively distinguished from inorganic magnetite on the basis of their magnetic properties and morphology, and that intact chain structures remain the only reliable distinguishing feature of fossil magnetosomes. 相似文献
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Energy and policy providing for sustainable rural livelihoods in remote locations – The case of Cuba
Modern, small-scale renewable energy technology has the potential to enable and sustain rural livelihoods, particularly in developing countries remote locations without access to the grid. Yet, the provision of rural energy to isolated communities might not achieve the desired long-term result unless its development is part of wider national policy geared to sustainable development and social equity. This article shows how a combination of technology and policy targeted at the improvement of livelihoods in rural areas is the best solution for maximising the capacity of renewable energy to deliver services. It pinpoints the transforming processes and the institutions participating in the delivery of energy technology. This work draws on the Cuban experience of renewable energy technology, that country’s efforts to improve quality of life for remote populations, and its pledge to promote environmental sustainability. Using a sustainable livelihoods approach, the results of a survey in a rural community are analysed in the framework of existing assets and policies. The article describes how it is not only local users who benefit from a comprehensive technical, social and environmental energy approach. The same governmental administration that promotes such services has much to gain from technology that works well, benefits the poor in remote locations and protects the environment within its larger policy promoting sustainable and egalitarian society. 相似文献
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We develop a one-equation non-equilibrium model to describe the Darcy-scale transport of a solute undergoing biodegradation in porous media. Most of the mathematical models that describe the macroscale transport in such systems have been developed intuitively on the basis of simple conceptual schemes. There are two problems with such a heuristic analysis. First, it is unclear how much information these models are able to capture; that is, it is not clear what the model's domain of validity is. Second, there is no obvious connection between the macroscale effective parameters and the microscopic processes and parameters. As an alternative, a number of upscaling techniques have been developed to derive the appropriate macroscale equations that are used to describe mass transport and reactions in multiphase media. These approaches have been adapted to the problem of biodegradation in porous media with biofilms, but most of the work has focused on systems that are restricted to small concentration gradients at the microscale. This assumption, referred to as the local mass equilibrium approximation, generally has constraints that are overly restrictive. In this article, we devise a model that does not require the assumption of local mass equilibrium to be valid. In this approach, one instead requires only that, at sufficiently long times, anomalous behaviors of the third and higher spatial moments can be neglected; this, in turn, implies that the macroscopic model is well represented by a convection–dispersion–reaction type equation. This strategy is very much in the spirit of the developments for Taylor dispersion presented by Aris (1956). On the basis of our numerical results, we carefully describe the domain of validity of the model and show that the time-asymptotic constraint may be adhered to even for systems that are not at local mass equilibrium. 相似文献
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Andrej Čerňanský Davit Vasilyan Georgios L. Georgalis Peter Joniak Serdar Mayda Jozef Klembara 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2017,110(3):741-751
Fossil anguine lizard specimens from several Turkish localities are described in this paper. The material comes from ten different localities, spanning a large geographic area consisting of both parts of the European Turkey and Anatolia, and ranging in age from the Oligocene to the Late Miocene. In certain cases, the generic determination was possible and, accordingly, members of Ophisaurus and Anguis were identified and described in detail. The specimens of Anguis, found in different, Middle and Late Miocene localities from Anatolia, represent two of only a few fossil occurrences of this taxon. Moreover, the material reported herein represents the oldest occurrences of anguine lizards, not only from Turkey, but from southeastern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean basin as a whole. These rare records provide important information about the dispersal routes of anguines from Europe to Asia and significantly enhance our understanding of their biogeography. 相似文献
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Modeling biodiversity benefits and external costs from a keystone predator reintroduction policy 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
In this paper, an economic model was constructed to determine the optimal wolf population and distribution across the Northern Rocky Mountains. Both ecological and economic concepts were incorporated in an implicitly spatial social welfare maximization problem. This interdisciplinary model relies on multiple data sources, including current wolf population and distribution information, opportunity cost to local landowners, and contingent valuation studies to determine willingness-to-pay for wolves. Economic models tend to externalize ecological concerns and ecological models often omit the complex human dimensions of conservation policy. Accordingly, this model can serve as a guide for integrating best practices from both fields. The model presented here is sufficiently general to apply to wolves in other ecosystems and to other highly interacting species such as beavers and bison. The Northern Rocky Mountain wolf was used as an example of how this economic model works, but this model can be applied far more broadly. 相似文献
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Carbon emissions from forest fires are considered an important factor of ecosystem carbon balance and global climate change. Carbon emissions from Japanese red pine stands (Pinus densiflora S. et Z.) burned by crown fire were estimated at Mt. Palgong in Daegu Metropolitan City, and crown fuel characteristics, including crown bulk density, crown base height, and fuel moisture content of Japanese red pine, were analyzed. Total biomass combusted was calculated by subtracting the biomass of burned stands from that of unburned stands exhibiting similar stand structures and site environments. Ten trees in the unburned area and five trees in the burned area were cut by using direct harvesting techniques to estimate crown layer biomass. All biomass sampled was oven-dried and weighed. The dry weight ratios of stems, branches, and needles were 70%, 21%, and 9%, respectively. The available fuel load susceptible to combustion during the crown fire spread was equivalent to 55% of the crown layer biomass. The crown bulk density was 0.24 kg/ m 3 on average. The estimated amount of CO 2 was 23,454 kg CO 2 /ha for the crown layer. These results will be useful for calculating the amount of CO 2 emitted from forest fires and for developing a forest carbon model in P. densiflora forests. 相似文献
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Optimal spatial allocation of initial attack resources for firefighting in the republic of Korea using a scenario optimization model 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
【Title】
This study explores the optimal spatial allocation of initial attack resources for firefighting in the Republic of Korea. To improve the effectiveness of Korean initial attack resources with a range of policy goals, we create a scenario optimization model that minimizes the expected number of fires not receiving a predefined response. In this study, the predefined response indicates the number of firefighting resources that must arrive at a fire before the fire escapes and becomes a large fire. We use spatially explicit GIS-based information on the ecology, fire behavior, and economic characterizations important in Korea. The data include historical fire events in the Republic of Korea from 1991 to 2007, suppression costs, and spatial information on forest fire extent. Interviews with forest managers inform the range of we address in the decision model. Based on the geographic data, we conduct a sensitivity analysis by varying the parameters systematically. Information on the relative importance of the components of the settings helps us to identify “rules of thumb” for initial attack resource allocations in particular ecological and policy settings. 相似文献
This study explores the optimal spatial allocation of initial attack resources for firefighting in the Republic of Korea. To improve the effectiveness of Korean initial attack resources with a range of policy goals, we create a scenario optimization model that minimizes the expected number of fires not receiving a predefined response. In this study, the predefined response indicates the number of firefighting resources that must arrive at a fire before the fire escapes and becomes a large fire. We use spatially explicit GIS-based information on the ecology, fire behavior, and economic characterizations important in Korea. The data include historical fire events in the Republic of Korea from 1991 to 2007, suppression costs, and spatial information on forest fire extent. Interviews with forest managers inform the range of we address in the decision model. Based on the geographic data, we conduct a sensitivity analysis by varying the parameters systematically. Information on the relative importance of the components of the settings helps us to identify “rules of thumb” for initial attack resource allocations in particular ecological and policy settings. 相似文献
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