Mechanisms for stronger warming over drier ecoregions observed since 1979     

Liming Zhou  Haishan Chen  Wenjian Hua  Yongjiu Dai  Nan Wei 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(9-10):2955-2974

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Modelling coastal land use change by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into cellular automata models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yongjiu Feng  Qianqian Yang  Zhonghua Hong  Li Cui 《国际地球制图》2018,33(5):470-488

This paper presents a spatial autoregressive (SAR) method-based cellular automata (termed SAR-CA) model to simulate coastal land use change, by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into transition rules. The model captures the spatial relationships between explained and explanatory variables and then integrates them into CA transition rules. A conventional CA model (LogCA) based on logistic regression (LR) was studied as a comparison. These two CA models were applied to simulate urban land use change of coastal regions in Ningbo of China from 2000 to 2015. Compared to the LR method, the SAR model yielded smaller accumulated residuals that showed a random distribution in fitting the CA transition rules. The better-fitting SAR model performed well in simulating urban land use change and scored an overall accuracy of 85.3%, improving on the LogCA model by 3.6%. Landscape metrics showed that the pattern generated by the SAR-CA model has less difference with the observed pattern.  相似文献   

Dynamic land use change simulation using cellular automata with spatially nonstationary transition rules   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Yongjiu Feng  Xiaohua Tong 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2018,55(5):678-698

The dynamic relationships between land use change and its driving forces vary spatially and can be identified by geographically weighted regression (GWR). We present a novel cellular automata (GWR-CA) model that incorporates GWR-derived spatially varying relationships to simulate land use change. Our GWR-CA model is characterized by spatially nonstationary transition rules that fully address local interactions in land use change. More importantly, each driving factor in our GWR model contains effects that both promote and resist land use change. We applied GWR-CA to simulate rapid land use change in Suzhou City on the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015. The GWR coefficients were visualized to highlight their spatial patterns and local variation, which are closely associated with their effects on land use change. The transition rules indicate low land conversion potential in the city’s center and outer suburbs, but higher land conversion potential in the inner near suburbs along the belt expressway. Residual statistics show that GWR fits the input data better than logistic regression (LR). Compared with an LR-based CA model, GWR-CA improves overall accuracy by 4.1% and captures 5.5% more urban growth, suggesting that GWR-CA may be superior in modeling land use change. Our results demonstrate that the GWR-CA model is effective in capturing spatially varying land transition rules to produce more realistic results, and is suitable for simulating land use change and urban expansion in rapidly urbanizing regions.  相似文献   

用(P)、(S)波速度振幅比求小震机制解的可行性研究   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

张永久  程万正 《中国地震》2007,23(4):366-374

利用数字地震记录直达P、S波最大速度振幅比和仿真后的最大位移振幅比资料分别测定了小震震源机制参数,并对两种结果进行了对比分析。理论分析和实测结果表明,二者基本一致,说明直接利用区域台网数字地震记录直达P、S波最大速度振幅比代替最大位移振幅比测定小震震源机制解是可行的。  相似文献   

防雷检测业务系统数据库的实现          下载免费PDF全文

王思群  冯俊杰  王永久  汤子东  胡学敏 《气象科技》2007,35(Z1):27-30

利用桌面数据库创建防雷检测业务系统数据库,可方便地对防雷检测业务、防雷检测信息进行追加、浏览、修改和查询等操作,查询结果可以打印或者生成文本文件,还可以利用OLE技术生成word文档、Excel文档保存.数据库经过加密,用户必须登陆才能操作数据库,保存用户使用信息,包括登陆时间、进行的操作等.系统具有完善的备份功能,可以保证数据库在误删除的情况下被安全恢复;具有较好的可移植性,可以应用于具有防雷检测业务的气象台站.  相似文献   

A land surface model (IAP94) for climate studies Part II: Implementation and preliminary results of coupled model with IAP GCM     

Dai Yongjiu  Xue Feng  Zeng Qingcun 《大气科学进展》1998,15(1):47-62

The Institute of Atmospheric Physics Land Surface Model (IAP94) has been incorporated into the IAP two-level atmospheric general circulation model (IAP GCM). Global and regional climatology averaged over the last 25 years of 100 year integrations from the IAP GCM with and without IAP94 (“bucket” scheme) is compared. The simulated results are also compared with the reanalysis data. Major findings are:(1) The IAP GCM simulation without IAP94 has extensive regions of warmer than observed surface air tempera?tures, while the simulation with IAP94 very much improves the surface air temperature.(2) The IAP GCM simulation with IAP94 gives improvement of the simulated precipitation pattern and intensity, especially the precipitation of East Asian summer monsoon and its intraseasonal migration of the rainbelts.(3) In five selected typical regions, for most of the surface variables such as surface air temperature, precipitation, precipitation minus evaporation, net radiation, latent heat flux and sensible heat flux, the IAP GCM with IAP94 pro?vides better simulations.  相似文献   

低频电磁波与地倾斜传感器对地震预报分析与研究     

李泉溪  银兵  吴用玖 《四川地质学报》2010,30(3):372-375

5.12大地震对国家造成了一次重大的损失,则对地震预报的研究则显得尤为重要。本文认为地震发生的机理是板块挤压破裂学说。在地震动发生前后都会出现一些宏观或微观异常,在地震发生前其微观异常主要表现为电磁波、地壳倾斜、地应力等异常。本方通过对低频电磁波和地倾斜进行测量和研究,可通过数据多台站共享来进行地震预报分析。  相似文献   

鄱阳湖环湖区生态系统服务价值时空变化及权衡协同关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

温玉玲  张小林  魏佳豪  王晓龙  蔡永久 《地理科学》2022,42(7):1229-1238

基于修订的当量因子表,结合1988—2020年7期土地利用数据,运用GIS数据处理和空间分析等方法探究了鄱阳湖环湖区生态系统服务价值的时空演变特征,同时引入生态系统服务权衡协同度模型对食物生产、水文调节、土壤保持等7项生态服务功能进行权衡与协同分析。结果表明：① 1988—2020年鄱阳湖环湖区生态系统服务价值从577.95亿元增至592.50亿元,呈先增后减再增的波动变化特征。② 生态系统服务价值的空间分布表现为明显的不均衡性,ESV显著减少的区域为南昌市区、九江市区以及其它各区县的城镇建成区,生态系统服务价值增加的区域均匀分布在研究区东北和西北地区以及靠近研究区外侧的东南和西南地区。③ 协同关系为生态系统服务之间的主导关系,权衡关系较少且主要存在于食物生产与其他服务之间。  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地子洲气田上古生界山西组、下石盒子组储集层特征对比研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王若谷  李文厚  廖友运  冯永玖  郭艳琴  马瑶  许星 《地质科学》2015,50(1):249-261

鄂尔多斯盆地子洲气田山西组山2~3段和下石盒子组盒8段是该区天然气的主力储集层,但其产能却存在很大差异。应用薄片鉴定、扫描电镜、高压压汞、恒速压汞及岩心分析资料,分别对该地区上古生界山西组山2~3段和下石盒子组盒8段储集层进行了研究。子洲气田山2~3储层以石英砂岩为主,孔隙类型多样,粒间孔、溶孔、晶间孔发育,喉道类别以微—细喉为主,属相对低孔高渗型储层;盒8储层则以岩屑砂岩为主,孔隙类型主要为岩屑溶孔和晶间孔,喉道类别以细—微喉为主,属于相对低孔低渗型储层。山2~3段和盒8段储集层岩石类型、孔隙结构差别巨大,造成了其储集性能的差异性。不同的沉积环境和成岩作用是造成其差异性的主要原因。  相似文献   

陆面过程模型CoLM与区域气候模式RegCM3的耦合及初步评估   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

郑婧  谢正辉  戴永久 《大气科学》2009,33(4):737-750

陆面过程通过影响陆面和大气之间物质（如,水分）和能量的交换影响气候, 其参数化方案对数值天气预报、全球及区域气候模拟有重要影响。本研究利用对生物物理、生物化学过程考虑更全面的陆面模式Common Land Model(CoLM) 替代区域气候模式RegCM3原有的陆面模式BATS, 发展了耦合区域气候模式C－RegCM3; 将其应用于东亚地区典型洪涝年份夏季气候模拟以进行评估, 结果表明新耦合的模式C－RegCM3能合理模拟大尺度环流场、近地表气温和降水的分布特征, 对西北半干旱地区降水模拟比RegCM3有所改进。通过利用区域气候模式C－RegCM3及RegCM3对地表能量和水文过程模拟结果的比较, 发现在半干旱、半湿润过渡区C－RegCM3模拟的潜热增大、感热减小; 模拟的地表吸收太阳辐射差异较明显的地区位于模式模拟的主要雨区; C-RegCM3在上述过渡区模拟的夏季地表土壤湿度比RegCM3偏干, 这与它在过渡区降水模拟偏少、蒸散发模拟偏大相对应, 体现了该模式在半干旱、半湿润过渡带模拟出比RegCM3更明显的局地土壤湿度－降水－蒸散发之间的正反馈作用。  相似文献