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1.
Effect of Aftershocks on Earthquake Hazard Estimation: An Example from the North Anatolian Fault Zone 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
In order to investigate the effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation, earthquake hazard parameters (m, b and Mmax) have been estimated by the maximum likelihood method from the main shocks catalogue and the raw earthquakes catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The main shocks catalogue has been compiled from the raw earthquake catalogue by eliminating the aftershocks using the window method. The raw earthquake catalogue consisted of instrumentally detected earthquakes between 1900 and 1992, and historical earthquakes that occurred between 1000–1900. For the events of the mainshock catalogue the Poisson process is valid and for the raw earthquake catalogue it does not fit. The paper demonstrates differences in the hazard outputs if on one hand the main catalogues and on the other hand the raw catalogue is used. The maximum likelihood method which allows the use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing incomplete (historical) and complete (instrumental) earthquake data is used to determine the earthquake hazard parameters. The maximum regional magnitude (Mmax, the seismic activity rate (m), the mean return period (R) and the b value of the magnitude-frequency relation have been estimated for the 24°–31° E, 31°–41° E, 41°–45° E sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the raw earthquake catalogue and the main shocks catalogue. Our results indicate that inclusion of aftershocks changes the b value and the seismic activity rate m depending on the proportion of aftershocks in a region while it does not significantly effect the value of the maximum regional magnitude since it is related to the maximum observed magnitude. These changes in the earthquake hazard parameters caused the return periods to be over- and underestimated for smaller and larger events, respectively. 相似文献
2.
Manganese and iron are essential nutrients at low doses. However, long-term exposure in high doses may be harmful. Human activities and natural sources are responsible for manganese and iron contamination in water. This study aimed to investigate the source of high manganese and iron contents in shallow groundwater, where the groundwater is used for drinking purpose, and to decrease the excess manganese and iron from shallow groundwater. Based on the on-site analytical results taken from the wells in the study area, iron contents in water samples varied between 30 and 200 μg/L, which were under the allowable limits of Turkish Drinking Water Standards (TDWS) (Water intended for human consumption, http://rega.basbakanlik.gov.tr/eskiler/2005/02/20050217-3.htm, 2005). However, manganese levels varied from 30 to 248 μg/L, which some of them are higher than the allowable limits of TDWS (Water intended for human consumption, http://rega.basbakanlik.gov.tr/eskiler/2005/02/20050217-3.htm, 2005) (50 μg/L), and EPA (http://water.epa.gov/drink/contaminants/index.cfm, 2006) (50 μg/L). The source of excess manganese is originated mainly from geogenic source besides Porsuk River interaction in shallow aquifer in the specific section of the study area. To decrease high manganese content from the well water and reservoir water, laboratory and in situ treatment tests were applied. Among these tests, chlorination, associated with filtration (by fine sand, active carbon and zeolite) and the use of different filtration procedures by cation exchange resin were determined as the most effective methods, which was not previously applied on-site as a combinative approaches to reduce the excess manganese in water. 相似文献
3.
Possible long-term seismic behaviour of the Northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, between western extreme of
the 1999 İzmit rupture and the Aegean Sea, after 400 AD is studied by examining the historical seismicity, the submarine fault
mapping and the paleoseismological studies of the recent scientific efforts. The long-term seismic behaviour is discussed
through two possible seismicity models devised from M
S ≥ 7.0 historical earthquakes. The estimated return period of years of the fault segments for M1 and M2 seismic models along
with their standard deviations are as follows: F4 segment 255 ± 60 and 258 ± 12; F5 segment 258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F6 segment
258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F7 segment 286 ± 103 and 286 ± 90; F8 segment 286 ± 90 and 286 ± 36. As the latest ruptures on the
submarine segments have been reported to be during the 1754–1766 earthquake sequence, and the 1912 mainshock rupture has been
evidenced to extend almost all over the western part of the Sea of Marmara, our results imply imminent seismic hazard and,
considering the mean recurrence time, a large earthquake to strike the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara in the next two
decades. 相似文献
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6.
The intrinsic dissipation and scattering attenuation in southwestern (SW) Anatolia, which is a tectonically active region,
is studied using the coda waves. First the coda quality factor (Qc) assuming single scattering is estimated from the slope of the coda-wave amplitude decay. Then the Multiple Lapse Time Window
(MLTW) analysis is performed with a uniform earth model. Three non-overlapping temporal data windows are used to calculate
the scattered seismic energy densities against the source-receiver distances, which, in turn, are used to calculate separate
estimates of the intrinsic and scattering factors. In order to explore the frequency dependency, the observed seismograms
are band pass-filtered at the center frequencies of 0.75, 1.5, 3.0, 6.0 and 12.0. The scattering attenuation (Qs−1) is found lower than the intrinsic attenuation (Qi−1) at all frequencies except at 0.75 Hz where the opposite is observed. Overall the intrinsic attenuation dominates over the
scattering attenuation in the SW Anatolia region. The integrated energy curves obtained for the first energy window (i.e.,
0–15 s) are somewhat irregular with distance while the second (i.e., 15–30 s) and third (i.e., 30–45 s) data windows exhibit
more regular change with distance at most frequencies. The seismic albedo B0 is determined as 0.61 at 0.75 Hz and 0.34 at 12.0 Hz while the total attenuation factor denoted by Le−1 changes in the range 0.034–0.017. For the source-station range 20–180 km considered the scattering attenuation is found strongly
frequency dependent given by the power law Qs−1 = 0.010*f−1.508. The same relations for Qi−1, Qt−1 (total), Qc−1 and
(expected) hold as Qi−1 = 0.0090*f−1.17, Qt−1 = 0.019*f−1.31, Qc−1 = 0.008*f−0.84 and
respectively. Compared to the other attenuation factors Qc−1 and
are less dependent on the frequency. 相似文献
7.
The devastating zmit and Düzce earthquakes were followed by theOrta intra-plate earthquake (MS = 6.1) occurred in the central Anatolianblock on June 6, 2000. The focal mechanism, aftershock distribution andthe field studies (Emre et al., 2000) suggest a movement on a 21-km longDodurga fault striking nearly N-S where the sense of motion is left-lateralstrike-slip with considerable amount of normal component. We applied theconstrained linear finite-fault inversion method of Hartzell and Heaton(1983) to the teleseismic P and SH waveforms to derive a coseismic slipdistribution model for the earthquake. Time windows approach is appliedallowing variable rise times and rupture velocities. The source-rise timefunction is discretized into consecutive time intervals that stand for slipcontribution of individual subfaults. Although no clear surface ruptureswere associated with the earthquake, the resulting slip model suggestscoseismic slip in the order of several tens of centimetres. Our coseismicslip distribution model identifies two slip patches with the followingmaximum slip values: (1) the larger one (42 cm) is located to the southof the hypocenter at depth range of 4–8 km and (2) the smaller one(31 cm) is located just above and north of the hypocenter. Theslip-model yield a seismic moment of 1.0 × 1018 Nm, most of whichis released from the rupture over the depth of 8 km. 相似文献
8.
The site response at 15 stations in the Adana-Ceyhan region (Southern Turkey) is calculated from the recordings of aftershocks of June 27, 1998 Adana-Ceyhan earthquake (MS=6.2) by using the Standard Spectral Ratio (SSR) and the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) methods. While the two methods are in good harmony at a few stations in determining the site effects, they show differences on the estimated amplifications or on the site resonance frequencies at most stations. It was not clear which one of the two methods underestimates or overestimates the amplification values. We observe that at some stations, where the local site conditions are rather complex, the vertical component records are strongly influenced from the local soil conditions. Thus, the HVSR method fails at these stations. The SSR method underestimates the amplifications at some stations since the rock site, selected as reference site, has its own site response and/or the path correction we applied, considering the geometrical spreading factor only, is insufficient. At the sites where high intensity values were observed, we found high amplifications. The fundamental soil frequencies characterize the damage properties observed in the Adana-Ceyhan earthquake. The fundamental soil frequency is nearly at 1.1 Hz at the Ceyhan site, where severe damage was observed in the 5–6 story buildings, while the fundamental soil frequency is between 3–6 Hz at the Adana site, where damage was in the low-story buildings. Therefore, in addition to inefficient construction practices, it is clear that the resonance effects have also contributed to the observed damage. 相似文献
9.
Ali Osman Öncel Ian Main Ömer Alptekin Patience Cowie 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,147(1):147-159
We investigate the nature of temporal variations in the statistical properties of seismicity associated with the North Anatolian Fault Zone between longitudes 31°–41°E during the instrumental period 1900–1992. Temporal variations in the seismicb value and the fractal (correlation) dimensionD
c
of earthquake epicenters are examined for earthquakes of magnitudeM
S
4.5, using sliding windows of 100 consecutive events.b varies temporally between 0.6 and 1.0, andD
c
between 0.6 and 1.4, both representing significant fluctuations above the errors in measurement technique. A strong negative correlation (r=–0.85) is observed betweenb andD
c
, consistent with previous observation of seismicity in Japan and southern California. Major events early in this century (M
S
7) are associated with lowb and highD
c
, respectively consistent with greater stress intensity and greater spatial clustering of epicenters—both implying a greater degree of stress concentration at this time. 相似文献
10.