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Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Investigation of the impact of climate change on water resources is very necessary in dry and arid regions. In the first part of this paper, the climate model...  相似文献   
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Drought monitoring is carried out using various drought indices, including SPI, to generate time series of dry and wet periods. Furthermore, the dispersion of dry and wet periods was embossed with different intensities (high, medium, and low) over the data record years. Although these results were very necessary for planning and predicting future droughts, it appeared that the application of any trend over dry and wet periods could provide more accurate and unbiased or safer predictions in terms of analysis process. Generally, most of the researchers believed that the results of a drought trend analysis have been influenced by short-term persistence or significant autocorrelation with different lags on drought event time series and the mentioned impact should be preferably removed. Accordingly, drought monitoring was accomplished using SPI and PNPI drought indices to extract time series of dry and wet periods in terms of 50-year (1965–2014) annual rainfall data of 40 synoptic stations over Iran. Having used the basic and modified Mann–Kendall nonparametric tests, it was attempted to analyze the trend of dry and wet periods extracted from mentioned indices. The results represent the relative advantage of using the modified Mann–Kendall test in drought trend analysis. Furthermore, it was shown that the trend of dry and wet periods was negative in the majority of selected stations and that this trend was significant at 95% confidence level in northwest of Iran. Also, the results indicated the similar performance of SPI and PNPI indices in trend analysis of dry and wet periods.

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In recent years, the bivariate frequency analysis of drought duration and severity using independent drought events and copula functions has been under extensive application. Meanwhile, emphasis on the procedure of independent drought data collection leads to the omission of the actual potential of short-term extreme droughts within a long-term independent drought. However, a long-term individual continuous drought as an Unconnected Drought Runs can be considered as a combination of short-term Connected Drought Runs. Thus, an advanced and new procedure of data collection in the bivariate drought characteristics analysis has been developed in this study. The results indicated a high relative advantage of the new proposed procedure in analysing bivariate drought characteristics (i.e., drought duration and severity frequency analysis). This advantage has been reflected in the more appropriate determination of the best copula and significant reduction in the uncertainty of bivariate drought frequency analysis.  相似文献   
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