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Pozos-Estrada Adrián Chávez Marcos M. Jaimes Miguel Á. Arnau Oriol Guerrero Héctor 《Natural Hazards》2019,97(2):623-641
On September 7, 2017, at 23:49 h (local time), a Mw8.2 intermediate-depth normal-fault earthquake occurred in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 133 km away from Pijijiapan, Chiapas, and about 700 km away from Mexico City. This event caused 95 fatalities and severe damage to different types of structures located close to the epicenter. The main objective of this work is to present observed damages caused in the state of Oaxaca by this earthquake, which were mainly concentrated in self-built houses and historical and ancient buildings. The locations visited by the reconnaissance team of the Institute of Engineering from UNAM in Oaxaca included Salina Cruz, Tehuantepec, Ixtaltepec, Juchitán, Huatulco and La Ventosa.
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Estela Collini María Soledad Osores Arnau Folch José G. Viramonte Gustavo Villarosa Graciela Salmuni 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):389-412
We modelled the transport and deposition of ash from the June 2011 eruption from Cordón Caulle volcanic complex, Chile. The modelling strategy, currently under development at the Argentinean Naval Hydrographic Service and National Meteorological Service, couples the weather research and forecasting (WRF/ARW) meteorological model with the FALL3D ash dispersal model. The strategy uses volcanological inputs inferred from satellite imagery, eruption reports and preliminary grain-size data obtained during the first days of the eruption from an Argentinean ash sample collection network. In this sense, the results shown here can be regarded as a quasi-syn-eruptive forecast for the first 16 days of the eruption. Although this article describes the modelling process in the aftermath of the crisis, the strategy was implemented from the beginning of the eruption, and results were made available to the Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers and other end users. The model predicts ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, expected deposit thickness and ash accumulation rates at relevant localities. Here, we validate the modelling strategy by comparing results with satellite retrievals and syn-eruptive ground deposit measurements. Results highlight the goodness of the combined WRF/ARW-FALL3D forecasting system and point out the usefulness of coupling both models for short-term forecast of volcanic ash clouds. 相似文献
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Costanza Bonadonna Arnau Folch Susan Loughlin Herbert Puempel 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(1):1-10
As a result of the serious consequences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland) on civil aviation, 52 volcanologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dispersion modellers and space and ground-based monitoring specialists from 12 different countries (including representatives from 6 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres and related institutions) gathered to discuss the needs of the ash dispersal modelling community, investigate new data-acquisition strategies (i.e. quantitative measurements and observations) and discuss how to improve communication between the research community and institutions with an operational mandate. Based on a dedicated benchmark exercise and on 3 days of in-depth discussion, recommendations have been made for future model improvements, new strategies of ash cloud forecasting, multidisciplinary data acquisition and more efficient communication between different communities. Issues addressed in the workshop include ash dispersal modelling, uncertainty, ensemble forecasting, combining dispersal models and observations, sensitivity analysis, model variability, data acquisition, pre-eruption forecasting, first simulation and data assimilation, research priorities and new communication strategies to improve information flow and operational routines. As a main conclusion, model developers, meteorologists, volcanologists and stakeholders need to work closely together to develop new and improved strategies for ash dispersal forecasting and, in particular, to: (1) improve the definition of the source term, (2) design models and forecasting strategies that can better characterize uncertainties, (3) explore and identify the best ensemble strategies that can be adapted to ash dispersal forecasting, (4) identify optimized strategies for the combination of models and observations and (5) implement new critical operational strategies. 相似文献
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Roberto Sulpizio Arnau Folch Antonio Costa Chiara Scaini Pierfrancesco Dellino 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(9):2205-2218
Long-range dispersal of volcanic ash can disrupt civil aviation over large areas, as occurred during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallaj?kull volcano in Iceland. Here we assess the hazard for civil aviation posed by volcanic ash from a potential violent Strombolian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, the most likely scenario if eruptive activity resumed at this volcano. A Somma-Vesuvius eruption is of concern for two main reasons: (1) there is a high probability (38?%) that the eruption will be violent Strombolian, as this activity has been common in the most recent period of activity (between AD 1631 and 1944); and (2) violent Strombolian eruptions typically last longer than higher-magnitude events (from 3 to 7?days for the climactic phases) and, consequently, are likely to cause prolonged air traffic disruption (even at large distances if a substantial amount of fine ash is produced such as is typical during Vesuvius eruptions). We compute probabilistic hazard maps for airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels using the FALL3D ash dispersal model and a statistically representative set of meteorological conditions. Probabilistic hazard maps are computed for two different ash concentration thresholds, 2 and 0.2?mg/m3, which correspond, respectively, to the no-fly and enhanced procedure conditions defined in Europe during the Eyjafjallaj?kull eruption. The seasonal influence of ash dispersal is also analysed by computing seasonal maps. We define the persistence of ash in the atmosphere as the time that a concentration threshold is exceeded divided by the total duration of the eruption (here the eruption phase producing a sustained eruption column). The maps of averaged persistence give additional information on the expected duration of the conditions leading to flight disruption at a given location. We assess the impact that a violent Strombolian eruption would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central Mediterranean area, and this assessment can help those who devise procedures to minimise the impact of these long-lasting low-intensity volcanic events on civil aviation. 相似文献
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Causes and underlying processes of measurement variability in field erosion plots in Mediterranean conditions 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
C. Boix‐Fayos M. Martínez‐Mena A. Calvo‐Cases E. Arnau‐Rosalén J. Albaladejo V. Castillo 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2007,32(1):85-101
An understanding of the sources of variation in the use of erosion plots and of their feasibility to meet the objectives of each specific research project is key to improving future field designs, selecting data for modelling purposes and furthering knowledge of soil erosion processes. Our own field experiences from ongoing research on soil erosion processes since 1989, have allowed us to detect several methodological problems that cause measurement variability. Here several examples are presented concerning: (i) differences in long‐term soil erosion data between open and closed plots; (ii) differences in soil loss derived from replica soil erosion plots; and (iii) differences in soil loss data derived from plots at a range of spatial scales. Closed plots are not the most suitable method for long‐term monitoring of soil erosion rates due to the risk of exhaustion of available material within the plot. The difference in time after which exhaustion occurs depends on the surface soil characteristics, the climatological conditions and the size of the plots. We detected four and seven years as ‘time to exhaustion’. Different results are frequently obtained between pairs of replica plots. Differences up to a factor of nine have been detected in total soil loss between replica plots due to different spatial patterns of surface components. Different constraints appear depending on the spatial scale of measurement of soil loss. We obtained lower runoff percentages at coarser scales; however, larger sediment concentrations are observed at coarser scales (1·32 g l?1, catchment; 0·30 g l?1, 30 m2; 0·17 g l?1, 1 m2 scales). The smaller the plot, the larger the hydrological disconnection within the system, the lower the energy flows due to short distances and the quicker the response to runoff due to an artificial decrease of concentration times for continuous flow. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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