Upper-mantle reflectors: modelling of seismic wavefield characteristics and tectonic implications     

T. M. Hansen  N. Balling 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(2):664-682

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The use of optimization to construct critical accelerograms for given structures and sites     

Ali Akbar Pirasteh  Jeffery L. Cherry  Richard J. Balling 《地震工程与结构动力学》1988,16(4):597-613

In this paper a methodology has been presented for constructing the most critical accelerogram from among a be class of candidate accelerograms for a given site and structure. This most critical accelerogram could be used to assess seismic resistance of a structure with a high level of confidence. Specifically, the method superimposes accelerograms recorded at similar sites to create the candidate accelerograms, then uses optimization and approximation techniques find the most critical accelerogram. The most critical accelerogram is defined as the one which maximizes damage is structure, as computed by non-linear dynamic structural analysis, as well as satisfies constraints on ground parameters to ensure credibility. The damage has been defined as cumulative inelastic energy dissipation or sure of interstorey drifts. The method is applied to ten examples in the paper.  相似文献   

Reply to comments of K. A. Emanuel on “carbon dioxide and hurricanes: Implications of northern hemispheric warming for Atlantic/Caribbean storms”     

S. B. Idso  R. C. Balling Jr.  R. S. Cerveny 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1991,47(1):85-86

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Climatic change in Britain: Is SO2 more significant than CO2?     

R. C. Balling Jr.  S. B. Idso 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1992,45(4):251-256

Summary Many climate scientists have suggested that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may create severe climate problems for Britain; however, the potential cooling effects of sulphur dioxide are widely acknowledged. In this investigation, we analyze British mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and mean diurnal air temperature range over the period 1929–1988. Our analyses of these records reveal (a) a shift in the early 1950s away from warming and toward cooling, (b) a relative decline in maximum air temperatures when compared to minimum air temperatures, (c) a strong decline in the diurnal air temperature range and (d) a significant linkage between diurnal temperature range and precipitation. Given these signals in the observed climate record, it would appear that SO₂ rather than CO₂ has been the major anthropogenic climate influence in Britain over the past four decades.With 6 Figures  相似文献   

Climate change in Yellowstone National Park: Is the drought-related risk of wildfires increasing?     

Robert C. Balling Jr.  Grant A. Meyer  Stephen G. Wells 《Climatic change》1992,22(1):35-45

The increased frequency of wildfires in the United States has become a common prediction associated with the build-up of greenhouse gases. In this investigation, variations in annual wildfire data in Yellowstone National Park are compared to variations in historical climate conditions for the area. Univariate and multivariate analytical techniques reveal that (a) summer temperatures in the Park are increasing, (b) January-June precipitation levels are decreasing, and (c) variations in burn area within the Park are significantly related to the observed variations in climate. Outputs from four different general circulation model simulations for 2 × CO₂ are included in the analyses; model predictions for increasing aridity in the Yellowstone Park area are generally in agreement with observed trends in the historical climate records.  相似文献   

Analysis of drought determinants for the Colorado River Basin     

Robert C. Balling Jr  Gregory B. Goodrich 《Climatic change》2007,82(1-2):179-194

Ongoing drought in the Colorado River Basin, unprecedented urban growth in the watershed, and numerical model simulations showing higher temperatures and lower precipitation totals in the future have all combined to heighten interest in drought in this region. In this investigation, we use principal components analysis (PCA) to independently assess the influence of various teleconnections on Basin-wide and sub-regional winter season Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and precipitation variations in the Basin. We find that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) explains more variance in PHDI than El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the planetary temperature combined for the Basin as a whole. When rotated PCA is used to separate the Basin into two regions, the lower portion of the Basin is similar to the Basin as a whole while the upper portion, which contains the high-elevation locations important to hydrologic yield for the watershed, demonstrates poorly defined relationships with the teleconnections. The PHDI for the two portions of the Basin are shown to have been out of synch for much of the twentieth century. In general, teleconnection indices account for 19% of the variance in PHDI leaving large uncertainties in drought forecasting.  相似文献   

Low enthalpy geothermal energy resources in Denmark     

Niels Balling  Svend Saxov 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1978,117(1-2):205-212

The deep oil exploration drillings in Denmark have shown that especially the Danish Embayment contains low enthalpy geothermal resources associated with warm aquifers. The most promising reservoirs have been found in highly permeable Upper Triassic sand and sandstone beds, which cover at least 5000 km² at depths of 2000–3000 m and at temperatures of 60–100°C. The porosity of the main reservoir is of 15–25%, and the permeability is presumed to be approximately 1 darcy (10^–12 m²) or higher. A layer thickness of 30–60 m has been observed on a number of localities. Also the Middle Jurassic and the Lower Triassic contain reservoirs of interest. A major geothermal exploration work is planned with seismic investigations, drillings to depths of 2000–4000 m and probably establishment of pilot district heating plants.  相似文献   

Joint inversion of temperature,vitrinite reflectance and fission tracks in apatite with examples from the eastern North Sea area     

Søren B. Nielsen  Niels Balling 《Basin Research》2023,35(1):439-469

As sediment accumulation indicates basin subsidence, erosion often is understood as tectonic uplift, but the amplitude and timing may be difficult to determine because the sedimentary record is missing. Quantification of erosion therefore requires indirect evidence, for example thermal indicators such as temperature, vitrinite reflectance and fission tracks in apatite. However, as always, the types and quality of data and the choice of models are important to the results. For example, considering only the thermal evolution of the sedimentary section discards the thermal time constant of the lithosphere and essentially ignores the temporal continuity of the thermal structure. Furthermore, the types and density of thermal indicators determine the solution space of deposition and erosion, the quantification of which calls for the use of inverse methods, which can only be successful when all models are mutually consistent. Here, we use integrated basin modelling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo inversion of four deep boreholes to show that the erosional pattern along the Sorgenfrei–Tornquist Zone (STZ) in the eastern North Sea is consistent with a tectonic model of tectonic inversion based on compression and relaxation of an elastic plate. Three wells in close proximity SW of the STZ have different data and exhibit characteristic differences in erosion estimates but are consistent with the formation of a thick chalk sequence, followed by minor Cenozoic erosion during relaxation inversion. The well on the inversion ridge requires ca. 1.7 km Jurassic-Early Cretaceous sedimentation followed by Late Cretaceous–Palaeocene erosion during inversion. No well demands thick Cenozoic sedimentation followed by equivalent significant Neogene exhumation. When data are of high quality and models are consistent, the thermal indicator method yields significant results with important tectonic and geodynamic implications.  相似文献   

IMPACT OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON THE NORTH AMERICAN SOUTHWEST MONSOON     

John A. Harrington Jr.  Randall S. Cerveny  Robert C. Balling Jr. 《自然地理学》2013,34(4):318-330

The intensity and spatial variations in the North American Southwest Monsoon are examined to determine the influence of the Southern Oscillation. Sixty-five years (1920–1984) of July and August monthly precipitation data from Arizona and New Mexico are normalized using a square root transformation, converted into z-scores, and stratified according to onset and following years for Warm Events and Cold Events of the Southern Oscillation. The results for July reveal different spatial patterns in the monsoonal precipitation for the extremes of the Southern Oscillation. Warm-Event onset years are associated with positive precipitation anomalies that decline along a northeast-to-southwest gradient across the study area whereas the Cold-Event onset years produce highest positive values in west-central Arizona and negative values throughout the eastern two-thirds of the study area. Spatial patterns for the August precipitation data do not appear to be influenced by the extremes of the Southern Oscillation. [Key words: Southwest Monsoon, Southern Oscillation, Arizona, New Mexico.]  相似文献   

An analysis of intra-event precipitation variability for the United States (1980–2010)     

David M. Brommer  Randall S. Cerveny  Robert C. Balling Jr 《自然地理学》2013,34(6):456-470

Hourly precipitation data were collected from 143 first-order US weather stations during the period from 1980 to 2009 to assess the internal distribution of precipitation events lasting at least three hours. A total of 46,595 individual precipitation events were identified and evaluated using the mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, and the number of peaks occurring within an event. Mean event duration is longest along the West and Northwest coasts, the Mid-South, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast; while shorter-duration events are more frequent in the Rocky Mountains, the Southwest, and the Great Plains. Mean event precipitation and standard deviation are greatest along the Gulf Coast and decrease inland. Precipitation events are positively skewed, indicating that more precipitation tends to occur earlier in the event. The most positively-skewed events are also located in regions flanking the Gulf of Mexico, while less-skewed events are common in the Northwest and Rocky Mountain regions. Event kurtosis is negative throughout the entire USA, with the highest negative values generally west of the Front Range, where cyclonic development and transition produce more evenly distributed precipitation within storms. Intra-event precipitation maxima were also evaluated, with western Florida and the desert Southwest having the greatest number per event.  相似文献