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Evaluation of spatial and spatiotemporal estimation methods in simulation of precipitation variability patterns 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Bardia Bayat Banafsheh Zahraie Farahnaz Taghavi Mohsen Nasseri 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(3-4):429-444
Identification of spatial and spatiotemporal precipitation variations plays an important role in different hydrological applications such as missing data estimation. In this paper, the results of Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) and ordinary kriging (OK) are compared for modeling spatial and spatiotemporal variations of annual precipitation with and without incorporating elevation variations. The study area of this research is Namak Lake watershed located in the central part of Iran with an area of approximately 90,000 km2. The BME and OK methods have been used to model the spatial and spatiotemporal variations of precipitation in this watershed, and their performances have been evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results of the case study have shown the superiority of BME over OK in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes. The results have shown that BME estimates are less biased and more accurate than OK. The improvements in the BME estimates are mostly related to incorporating hard and soft data in the estimation process, which resulted in more detailed and reliable results. Estimation error variance for BME results is less than OK estimations in the study area in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes. 相似文献
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Thermal conductivity is an important parameter to consider when designing clay-based barriers for use in deep geological repositories (DGR). In the DGR environment, the infiltration of local saline groundwater can potentially change the pore fluid chemistry of a barrier over its lifetime. This change in chemistry is known to alter the thermal properties of the barrier materials. In order to examine the impact of pore fluid salinity on thermal conductivity, experiments were conducted under both distilled water and saline pore fluid conditions. The material mixtures were prepared at two different dry densities using two different salt types. Furthermore, five different thermal conductivity prediction models were selected and evaluated on their performance with respect to the experimental outcomes. In general, these results indicated that an increase in the constituent pore fluid’s salt concentration leads to a decrease in the thermal conductivity of the material. Additionally, the thermal conductivity values of the materials prepared at a high dry density were greater than of those compacted at a low dry density. 相似文献
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Bardia Bayat Mohsen Nasseri Khosrow Hosseini Hojat Karami 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(18):561
Rain gauges are installed to measure pointwise precipitation and provide a comprehensive perspective of its spatiotemporal variations. Selection of an efficient and reliable rainfall monitoring network is a key role to reduce its maintenance and handling cost. The main purpose of the current paper is to compare efficiencies of various network design methods. The applied methods are entropy theory (as probabilistic multi-criteria decision-making) and genetic algorithm (as one of the heuristic methods) with three objective functions. Also, two classical (ordinary kriging; OK) and modern (Bayesian maximum entropy; BME) spatial simulation methods were undertaken to provide a comprehensive spatial simulation of precipitation. The proposed assessment was applied on spatial mean annual precipitation variability in the Namak Lake watershed located in the central part of Iran. The final efficiency of developed network design methods is evaluated in terms of three criteria known as mass estimation error, total error, and spatial bias of estimated rainfall. Based on the results, different network distributions have been proposed by the methods. Despite the reliability of the heuristic approach in nonlinear optimization due to its mathematical principle, the results indicated that the network design based on entropy theory can be used to estimate long-term mean annual precipitation more reliably and accurately. Results of the mass estimation error have shown 78 and 83% superiority of the entropy theory approach from the worst approach obtained from the OK and BME methods, respectively. 相似文献
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