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Physical parameters of explosive eruptions are typically derived from tephra deposits. However, the characterization of a
given eruption relies strongly on the quality of the dataset used, the strategy chosen to obtain and process field data and
the particular model considered to derive eruptive parameters. As a result, eruptive parameters are typically affected by
a certain level of uncertainty and should not be considered as absolute values. Unfortunately, such uncertainty is difficult
to assess because it depends on several factors and propagates from field sampling to the application and interpretation of
dispersal models. Characterization of explosive eruptions is made even more difficult when tephra deposits are poorly exposed
and only medial data are available. In this paper, we present a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty associated with
the characterization of tephra deposits generated by the two largest eruptions of the last 2,000 years of Cotopaxi volcano,
Ecuador. In particular, we have investigated the effects of the determination of the maximum clast on the compilation of isopleth
maps, and, therefore, on the characterization of plume height. We have also compared the results obtained from the application
of different models for the determination of both plume height and erupted volume and for the eruption classification. Finally,
we have investigated the uncertainty propagation into the calculation of mass eruption rate and eruption duration. We have
found that for our case study, the determination of plume height from isopleth maps is more sensitive to the averaging techniques
used to define the maximum clast than to the choice of dispersal models used (i.e. models of Carey and Sparks 1986; Pyle 1989) and that even the application of the same dispersal model can result in plume height discrepancies if different isopleth
lines are used (i.e. model of Carey and Sparks 1986). However, the uncertainties associated with the determination of erupted mass, and, as a result, of the eruption duration,
are larger than the uncertainties associated with the determination of plume height. Mass eruption rate is also associated
with larger uncertainties than the determination of plume height because it is related to the fourth power of plume height.
Eruption classification is also affected by data processing. In particular, uncertainties associated with the compilation
of isopleth maps affect the eruption classification proposed by Pyle (1989), whereas the VEI classification is affected by the uncertainties resulting from the determination of erupted mass. Finally,
we have found that analytical and empirical models should be used together for a more reliable characterization of explosive
eruptions. In fact, explosive eruptions would be characterized better by a range of parameters instead of absolute values
for erupted mass, plume height, mass eruption rate and eruption duration. A standardization of field sampling would also reduce
the uncertainties associated with eruption characterization. 相似文献
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We present a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout of Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador), a quiescent but active stratovolcano known for its highly explosive behaviour. First, we developed a set of possible eruptive scenarios based on thorough field investigations, literature studies and using the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database. Five eruption scenarios were identified, including two based on large pre-historical sub-Plinian/Plinian eruptions with eruptive parameters constrained from field investigations (One Eruption Scenario; OES) and three Eruption Range Scenarios (ERS) based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) classification, for which eruptive parameters (i.e. erupted volume, plume height and median grainsize) were stochastically sampled within boundaries defined by VEI 3, 4 and 5. Second, the modelling was performed using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2 in combination with wind profiles from the NOAA NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 database. We performed 1,000 runs for each eruption scenario, stochastically sampling a wind profile (OES and ERS) and a set of eruptive parameters (ERS only) at each run. Using the conditional probabilities of occurrence of eruption of VEI 3, 4 and 5 calculated from the GVP catalogue, we assessed the probability of tephra accumulation in a given time window. Based on the GVP database, a simple Poisson model shows that an eruption of VEI???3 has a 36?% probability of occurrence in the next 10?years. Finally, the hazard assessment was compiled based on three different outputs, including (i) probability maps for a given tephra accumulation, (ii) isomass maps for a given probability value and (iii) hazard curves for a given location. We conclude that the area west of Cotopaxi is exposed to light to severe tephra fallout for the smallest eruption magnitude considered (i.e. VEI 3). This area comprises a main communication axis (Panamerican Highway) topographically constrained at the bottom of the Interandean Valley, as well as the capital Quito and the town of Latacunga. In a companion paper, Biass et?al. (this volume) propose a method for a rapid risk assessment for tephra fallout using global and easily accessible data and the hazard assessment described here. 相似文献
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A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador-Part II: vulnerability and risk assessment 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
In order to develop efficient strategies for risk mitigation and emergency management, planners require the assessment of both the expected hazard (frequency and magnitude) and the vulnerability of exposed elements. This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to produce qualitative to semi-qualitative thematic risk assessments for tephra fallout around explosive volcanoes, designed to operate with datasets of variable precision and resolution depending on data availability. Due to the constant increase in population density around volcanoes and to the wide dispersal of tephra from volcanic plumes, a large range of threats, such as roof collapses, damage to crops, blockage of vital lifelines and health problems, concern even remote communities. To address these issues, we have assessed the vulnerability and the risk levels for five themes relevant to tephra fallout: (1) social, (2) economic, (3) environmental, (4) physical and (5) territorial. Risk and vulnerability indices for each theme are averaged to the fourth level of administrative unit (parroquia, parish). In a companion paper, Biass and Bonadonna (this volume) present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2, which is based on field investigations and a global eruption database (Global Volcanism Program, GVP). The scope of this paper is to present a new approach to risk assessment specifically designed for tephra fallout, based on a comprehensive hazard assessment of Cotopaxi volcano. Our results show that an eruption of moderate magnitude (i.e. VEI 4) would result in the possible collapse of ??9,000 houses in the two parishes located close to the volcano. Our study also reveals a high risk on agriculture, closely linked to the economic sector, and a possible accessibility problem in case of an eruption of any size, as tephra is likely to affect the only major road running from Quito to Latacunga (Panamerican Highway). As a result, this method fits into the ongoing effort to better characterize and evaluate volcanic risk, and more specifically the risk associated with tephra fallout. Although this methodology relies on some assumptions, it can serve as a rapid and efficient starting point for further investigations of the risk level around explosive volcanoes. 相似文献
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Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru) 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Laura Sandri Jean-Claude Thouret Robert Constantinescu Sébastien Biass Roberto Tonini 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2014,76(2):1-26
We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management. 相似文献
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Thompson Mary Anne Lindsay Jan M. Wilson Thomas M. Biass Sebastien Sandri Laura 《Natural Hazards》2017,86(1):31-56
Natural Hazards - Quantitatively assessing long-term volcanic risk can be challenging due to the many variables associated with volcanic hazard and vulnerability. This study presents a structured... 相似文献
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Sebastien Biass Costanza Bonadonna Federico di Traglia Marco Pistolesi Mauro Rosi Pierino Lestuzzi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2016,78(5):37
A first probabilistic scenario-based hazard assessment for tephra fallout is presented for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano Island, Italy) and subsequently used to assess the impact on the built environment. Eruption scenarios are based upon the stratigraphy produced by the last 1000 years of activity at Vulcano and include long–lasting Vulcanian and sub-Plinian eruptions. A new method is proposed to quantify the evolution through time of the hazard associated with pulsatory Vulcanian eruptions lasting from weeks to years, and the increase in hazard related to typical rainfall events around Sicily is also accounted for. The impact assessment on the roofs is performed by combining a field characterization of the buildings with the composite European vulnerability curves for typical roofing stocks. Results show that a sub-Plinian eruption of VEI 2 is not likely to affect buildings, whereas a sub-Plinian eruption of VEI 3 results in 90 % of the building stock having a ≥12 % probability of collapse. The hazard related to long-lasting Vulcanian eruptions evolves through time, and our analysis shows that the town of Il Piano, located downwind of the preferential wind patterns, is likely to reach critical tephra accumulations for roof collapse 5–9 months after the onset of the eruption. If no cleaning measures are taken, half of the building stock has a probability >20 % of suffering roof collapse. 相似文献
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C. Bonadonna R. Cioni A. Costa T. Druitt J. Phillips L. Pioli D. Andronico A. Harris S. Scollo O. Bachmann G. Bagheri S. Biass F. Brogi K. Cashman L. Dominguez T. Dürig O. Galland G. Giordano M. Gudmundsson M. Hort A. Höskuldsson B. Houghton J.C. Komorowski U. Küppers G. Lacanna J.L. Le Pennec G. Macedonio M. Manga I. Manzella M. de’ Michieli Vitturi A. Neri M. Pistolesi M. Polacci M. Ripepe E. Rossi B. Scheu R. Sulpizio B. Tripoli S. Valade G. Valentine C. Vidal N. Wallenstein 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2016,78(11):84
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