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E. Mantovani M. Viti D. Babbucci D. Albarello N. Cenni A. Vannucchi 《Journal of Seismology》2010,14(1):53-65
We argue that the study of long-range interaction between seismic sources in the peri-Adriatic regions may significantly contribute
to estimating seismic hazard in Italy. This hypothesis is supported by the reconstruction of the geodynamic and tectonic settings
in the Central Mediterranean region, the space–time distribution of major past earthquakes, and the quantification of post-seismic
relaxation. The most significant evidence of long-distance interaction is recognized for the Southern Apennines, whose major
earthquakes have almost regularly followed within a few years the largest events in the Montenegro-Albania zone since 1850.
Statistical analyses of the post-1850 earthquake catalogues give a probability of about 10% that a major event in the Southern
Apennines is not preceded by the occurrence of a strong event in the Southern Dinarides–Albanides within 3–5 years. Conversely,
the probability of false alarms is relevant (50% within 3 years, 33% within 5 years). Northward, the tectonic setting and
some patterns of regularity seen in major events suggest that the seismic activation of the main transtensional decoupling
shear zones in the Central Apennines should influence the probability of major earthquakes in the Northern Apennines. 相似文献
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E. Mantovani N. Cenni D. Albarello M. Viti D. Babbucci C. Tamburelli F. D'Onza 《Journal of Geodynamics》2001,31(5):190
The highly heterogeneous strain field indicated by neotectonic and seismological data in the central-eastern Mediterranean region has been reproduced, at a first approximation, by finite element modelling, of a 2D elastic thin plate. The zone considered is modelled as a mosaic of poorly deformable zones decoupled by highly deformable belts, simulating the major tectonic structures indicated by geological and geophysical evidence. The deformation of the model is obtained by imposing kinematic boundary conditions, representative of the motion of Africa and eastern Anatolia relative to Eurasia. Experiments carried out with different boundary conditions and model parameterisations have provided information on the sensitivity of the model and some insights into the geodynamic behavior of the study area. The deformation pattern of the central Mediterranean area is strongly conditioned by the mechanical properties assumed in the border zones between the Aegean and Adriatic systems. The match of the complex strain pattern observed in the western Anatolian–Aegean–Balkan zones is significantly favoured if high rigidity is assigned to the inner part of this structural system. A motion of Africa with respect to Eurasia compatible with an Eulerian pole located offshore Portugal best accounts for the observed strains in the central Mediterranean region. The match of the strongly heterogeneous strain field observed in the study area can hardly be achieved by simplified models not including major tectonic features and lateral heterogeneity of mechanical properties. The kinematic field resulting from the model configuration which best simulates the observed strain field presents some differences with respect to geodetic measurements in the Aegean–Western Anatolian area, where the computed velocities are systematically lower than the geodetic ones. It is suggested that the most plausible explanation of such differences is related to the fact that the present deformation pattern, inferred from geodetic data, may be different from the middle–long term one, inferred from seismological and geological data. 相似文献
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Landslides - The morphological changes of unstable areas can be identified using different methodologies that allow repeated surveys over time. The integration between the data obtained from... 相似文献
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Relative motion of the Adriatic with respect to the confining plates: seismological and geodetic constraints 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
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The evolution of the Patigno landslide, a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation in the Northern Apennine range (Italy), was investigated using archival photogrammetry, and GPS observations from a permanent station located inside the landslide. Historical aerial photographs of the area taken in 1975 (scale 1:13,000), 1987 (1:13,000) and 2004 (1:30,000) were co-registered into the same reference frame using an unconventional method based on the detection of homologous points in multi-temporal models. Three DTMs were produced using a Digital Photogrammetric Workstation and compared. The displacement vectors of 293 points in the landslide were determined. The average movement velocity of the GPS station since 2004 (about 3.5 cm yr− 1) agrees with the mean displacement rate obtained from photogrammetry. Furthermore, the estimated velocity varies seasonally between 3 and 6 cm yr− 1. This variability correlated with rainfall suggests that the creep of the landslide is influenced by hydrological factors. 相似文献
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