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A unique historical data set describing the 142 storms producing losses in excess of $100 million in the United States during the 1950–89 period were analyzed to describe their temporal characteristics. These weather disasters (WDs) caused $66.2 billion in losses, 76% of the nation's insured losses in this period. Disasters were most prevalent in the south, southeast, northeast, and central U.S., with few in and west of the Rockies. The incidence of WDs was high in the 1950s, low in the 1960s-early 1970s, and peaked in the 1980s. Losses due to WDs peaked in the 1950s, again in the late 1960s, and with a lesser peak after 1985. The areal extent of storm losses peaked after 1975 and was least in the 1960s. The temporal variations of the three storm measures (incidence, losses, and extent) had poor agreement, and agreed only when they peaked in the 1950s. Regionally-derived time distributions of WDs showed marked north-south differences with a U-shaped 40-year distribution in the northern half of the nation, whereas southern regions had a relatively flat trend until achieving a peak in the 1980s. The temporal distributions of hurricane-caused disasters differed regionally, with the distributions in the southern, southeastern, and northeastern U.S. each quite different. Temporal distributions of thunderstorm and winter storm-produced disasters were regionally more uniform. The national 5-year WD frequencies correlated moderately well with annual mean temperatures which explained 40% of the variability found in WDs during 1950–89. Weather disasters peaked in the relatively warm-dry 1950s and again in the warm-wet 1980s, and were least in the cool-wet 1960s and 1970s. The distribution of WDs during 1950–89 appears positively related to the temporal fluctuations in cyclonic activity. 相似文献
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Climate-Years in the True Prairie: Temporal Fluctuations of Ecologically Critical Climate Conditions
The True Prairie (TP) is a large area in the central U.S. which was a tall grass prairie for thousands of years prior to its conversion to crop land. An analysis of climatically controlling factors indicated that the tall grass prairie is favored by the ratio of warm season precipitation to potential evapotranspiration exceeding 0.75 (west boundary), cold season precipitation less than 38 cm (south boundary), high cold-season frequency of thunderstorms (north boundary), and high drought frequencies (entire region). A `climate-year' approach was used to assess the temporal and spatial variability of these conditions during the 20thcentury. This analysis did not reveal any long-term trends in most climate-year types, although there were significant decadal-scale fluctuations, most notably a high frequency of drought-type years in the 1930s and 1950s. However, the well-documented upward trend in precipitation is manifested in an increasing frequency of one climate-year type characterized by above normal cold season precipitation in the southern border area of the TP. 相似文献
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1901–80 data for the contiguous U.S. show that secular variability of thunder days was very much less than that of precipitation or of frequency of extra tropical cyclones. Overall, there may have been a slight decline, but more evident was an increase to the thirties followed by a falling off, broken only by a peak in the seventies. These up-and-down movements were evident in most months of the year and regions of the U.S. The general decrease, however, was clear only in the South East and replaced by an increase in the Upper Great Lakes region. Secular variation in thunder day frequency was slightly correlated positively with that of extra tropical cyclone frequency and negatively with sea level pressure. The analysis also confirmed well known seasonal and regional patterns of thunder activity. 相似文献
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Fluctuations in US Freezing Rain Days 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Freezing rain occurrences during a 50-year period, 1949/1950–1998/1999, derived from carefully examined records of 161 first-order stations distributed across the United States, were assessed for temporal fluctuations and trends. Classification of station fluctuations based on five 10-year periods revealed five unique distribution types in areas east of the Rockies. One of these five distributions, for stations located in the western Great Plains, experienced its greatest 10-year value at the end of the 50-year period. The other four regional distributions experienced their highest 10-year value in either of the first two 10-year periods. Nationally, the 10-year period when the greatest number of stations experienced their maximum value was 1949/1950–1958/1959, while the period when the greatest number of stations experienced their minimum value fell near the end of the 50-year record (1979/1980–1988/1989). The 50-year linear trends defined one region, the western Great Plains, with increasing values, while three areas of decreasing trend were identified; the Great Lakes, the eastern Ohio River valley, and southern New England. These analyses also indicate the need to examine and consider such time–space changes in the frequency of climate variables at various spatial scales when assessing weather risks and developing climate change scenarios. 相似文献
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Stanley A. Changnon 《Climatic change》1996,32(4):481-494
Potential shifts in summer precipitation due to an enhanced greenhouse effect indicate the possibility of more rain days and heavier rains in the Midwest, and this study assessed the effects of such changes on transportation in Chicago using a 3-year period of data. Traffic accidents in the metropolitan area doubled on rainy days, with 30% more accidents in more densely populated urban areas than in suburban-rural areas. During rain events accident severity (number of injuries) was 55% higher in suburban and rural areas where less dense but higher speed traffic flows exist than in the city, however. Rain days during dry months produced more accidents and injuries than during normal or wet months. Three times as many accidents occurred during heavy rain periods (> 12.8 mm) as during nonrain conditions. Rain had a negligible influence on weekday traffic volume on busy highways but there was a 9% decrease in traffic volume on rainy weekends. A 3–5% decrease in ridership of public transportation occurred on rainy days, with most decreases during midday. Nationally, 27% of all fatality-producing aircraft accidents occurred during rainy weather conditions, as did 57% of the 30-min flight delays at Chicago's O'Hare Airport. Results suggest that given continued transportation use patterns extend into the future, a future climate with more summer rain days, somewhat higher rain rates, and more storms would mean more total vehicular accidents, more total injuries in vehicular accidents, decreased ridership on public transportation systems, and more aircraft accidents and delays. A drier climate would likely experience fewer moderate to heavy rain events but results show that rain events during drier conditions produced a greater frequency of accidents and injuries per event than during wetter conditions. 相似文献
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In 1900 the city of Chicago began diverting sizable amounts of water from Lake Michigan to move its sewage down the Illinois River. This diversion launched a series of continuing legal controversies involving Illinois as a defendant against claims by the federal government, various lake states, and Canada who wanted the diversion stopped or drastically reduced. During the past 96 years extended dry periods have lowered the lake levels. Using these dry periods as surrogates for future conditions, their effects on the past controversies were examined as analogs for what might occur as a result of climate change from an enhanced Greenhouse effect. The results reveal that changing socioeconomic factors including population growth will likely cause increased water use, and Chicago will seek additional water from the Great Lakes. New priorities for water use will emerge as in the past. Drier future conditions will likely lead to enhanced diversions from the Great Lakes to serve interests in and outside the basin. Future lower lake levels (reflecting a drier climate) will lead to conflicts related to existing and proposed diversions, and these conflicts would be exacerbated by the consequences of global warming. In any event, a warmer, drier climatic regime will challenge existing laws and institutions for dealing with Great Lakes water issues. 相似文献
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A unique historical data set describing the 142 storms each producing losses in excess of $100 million in the United States during the 1950–89 period were analyzed to describe their temporal characteristics. The storms caused $66.2 billion in losses (in 1991 values), 76% of the nation's insured storm losses in this period. These extreme storm catastrophes (SCs) were most prevalent in the south, southeast, northeast, and central U.S., with few in and west of the Rocky Mountains. Storm incidences were high in the 1950s, low in the 1960s-early 1970s, and increased in the 1980s. Losses due to SCs peaked in the 1950s, again in the late 1960s, with a lesser peak after 1985. The areal extent of storm losses peaked after 1975 and was least in the 1960s. The temporal variations of the three storm measures (incidence, losses, and extent) did not agree except when they all peaked in the 1950s. Regionally-derived time distributions of SCs showed a marked north-south differences in the United States with a U-shaped 40-year distribution in the northern half of the nation, and a relatively flat trend until a peak in the 1980s in the southern regions. The temporal distributions of hurricane-caused catastrophes differed regionally with occurrences in the prime areas, the southern, southeastern, and northeastern U.S., each quite different. Temporal distributions of thunderstorm and winter storm catastrophes were regionally more uniform. 相似文献
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A 1950–1994 data set of major weather losses developed by the property insurance industry was examined to assess its potential utility in climate change research and use in assessing the relevance of recent extreme losses in the United States. A process for adjusting these historical storm losses to ever-changing factors including dollar values, amount of insurance coverage per area, and the sensitivity of society to damaging storms was developed by the industry. Analysis of the temporal frequency and losses of these adjusted weather catastrophes revealed differences according to the amount of loss. Temporal changes since 1975 in the catastrophes causing $35 to $100 million in loss were strongly related to changes in U.S. population, whereas catastrophes that created insured losses greater than $100 million appear related to both shifting weather conditions and to regional population changes. This evaluation revealed that the industry's catastrophe adjustment technique did not adequately allow for changes in various demographic and social factors affecting damage; however, results suggest use of population values for normalizing the adjusted catastrophe database to allow meaningful studies of their temporal variability. 相似文献
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Transposed Climates for Study of Water Supply Variability on the Laurentian Great Lakes 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Kenneth E. Kunkel Stanley A. Changnon Thomas E. Croley II Frank H. Quinn 《Climatic change》1998,38(4):387-404
Hydrological models of the Great Lakes basin were used to study the sensitivity of Great Lakes water supplies to climate warming by driving them with meteorological data from four U.S. climate zones that were transposed to the basin. Widely different existing climates were selected for transposition in order to identify thresholds of change where major impacts on water supplies begin to occur and whether there are non-linear responses in the system. The climate zones each consist of 43 years of daily temperature and precipitation data for 1,000 or more stations and daily evaporation-related variables (temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud cover) for approximately 20–35 stations. A key characteristic of these selected climates was much larger variability in inter-annual precipitation than currently experienced over the Great Lakes. Climate data were adjusted to simulate lake effects; however, a comparison of hydrologic results with and without lake effects showed that there was only minor effects on water supplies. 相似文献