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Ahmed Mustafa Ismaïl Saadi Mario Cools Jacques Teller 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(11):2317-2333
One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future. 相似文献
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Jan Cools Yves Meyus Solomon Tuccu Woldeamlak Okke Batelaan Florimond De Smedt 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(8):1201-1209
For the implementation of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD), technological and scientific support are required. This paper presents a methodology to support a first step of the implementation of WFD, which is the delineation of groundwater bodies. The methodology consists of (1) the development of a complete and generally-accepted hydrogeological classification system for Flanders, named the HCOV code, (2) the development of a geographic information systems (GIS)-managed borehole database, and (3) the development of aquifer and aquitard models by means of a solid modeling approach. For each unit of the hydrogeological classification code for Flanders unit, GIS maps are generated for the three basic characteristics of hydrogeological layers: extent, base level and thickness, such that combined, the volume and extent of a hydrogeological layer is unambiguously defined. This GIS-based hydrogeological database has become a useful tool for groundwater management purposes and to provide the input for groundwater modeling. 相似文献
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