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Probabilistic analysis of extreme regional meteorological droughts by L-moments in a semi-arid environment 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Regional extreme value analyses of drought characteristics provide information on probabilistic nature of drought occurrence, viewed as an essential tool in drought mitigation and planning. In this paper, L-moments are used to investigate the regional characteristics and probabilistic behavior of drought severity levels, represented by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) annual minima (the minimum monthly SPI value). Rainfall data of 3, 6, 12, and 24 month time scales are investigated. A regional watershed in southwestern Iran is used as a case study area. The semi-arid nature of the study area requires appropriate selection of rainfall data. The boxplot approach is used to select those months with adequate data time series for the SPI analysis. Appropriateness of the suggested data time series is discussed in the context of the research by Wu et al. (2007). Based on the results, all of the suggested time scales are found appropriate for SPI investigations. For each time scale of interest regional homogeneity is evaluated and the best regional/sub-regional probability distribution function is selected. Regional quantiles are estimated for different time scales and their variability with respect to return period is discussed. 相似文献
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Stochastic dynamic game models can be applied to derive optimal reservoir operation policies by considering interactions among water users and reservoir operator, their preferences, their levels of information availability and cooperative behaviors. The stochastic dynamic game model with perfect information (PSDNG) has been developed by [Ganji A, Khalili D, Karamouz M. Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation. I. The symmetric stochastic model with perfect information. Adv Water Resour, this issue]. This paper develops four additional versions of stochastic dynamic game model of water users interactions based on the cooperative behavior and hydrologic information availability of beneficiary sectors of reservoir systems. It is shown that the proposed models are quite capable of providing appropriate reservoir operating policies when compared with alternative operating models, as indicated by several reservoir performance characteristics. Among the proposed models, the selected model by considering cooperative behavior and additional hydrologic information (about the randomness nature of reservoir operation parameters), as exercised by reservoir operator, provides the highest attained level of performance and efficiency. Furthermore, the selected model is more realistic since it also considers actual behavior of water users and reservoir operator in the analysis. 相似文献
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Saadat Samane Khalili Davar Kamgar-Haghighi Ali Akbar Zand-Parsa Shahrokh 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(3):1697-1720
Natural Hazards - Spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal streamflow droughts were investigated for the semi-arid Karkheh watershed, located in western Iran with an area of 41,470 km2,... 相似文献
5.
Seyed Adib Banimahd Davar Khalili Shahrokh Zand-Parsa Ali Akbar Kamgar-Haghighi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(10):223
Performances of conventional and improved soil moisture balance as well as locally calibrated empirical models were evaluated in simulating potential recharge (R) and soil moisture content for a semi-arid foothill region. Models comparison with observed values using lysimeter data during [(2011–2012), (2012–2013)] reveal poor performance of conventional soil moisture balance model, underestimating annual R values. Improved soil moisture balance model provided acceptable estimation of annual R for 2011–2012 by considering the wetting of the near surface soil storage. However, it produced the worst simulation for daily soil moisture content once rainy season was over. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the precision degree of initial soil moisture deficit value would strongly influence estimation of R by improved soil moisture balance model, which can be viewed as a limiting factor. Additionally, locally calibrated model produced the best estimation of annual R and daily soil moisture content, which is suggested for the study region. 相似文献
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During the last decade, a number of models have been developed to consider the conflict in dynamic reservoir operation. Most of these models are discrete dynamic models which are developed based on game theory. In this study, a continuous model of dynamic game and its corresponding solutions are developed for reservoir operation. Two solution methods are used to solve the model of continuous dynamic game, namely the Ricatti equations and collocation methods. The Ricatti equations method is a closed form solution, requiring less computational efforts compared with discrete models. The collocation solution method applies Newton's method or a quasi-Newton method to find the problem solution. These approaches are able to generate operating policies for dynamic reservoir operation. The Zayandeh-Rud river basin in central Iran is used as a case study and the results are compared with alternative water allocation models. The results show that the proposed solution methods are quite capable of providing appropriate reservoir operating policies, while requiring rather short computational times due to continuous formulation of state and decision variables. Reliability indices are used to compare the overall performance of the proposed models. Based on the results from this study, the collocation method leads to improved values of the reliability indices for total reservoir system and utility satisfaction of water users, compared to the Ricatti equations method. This is attributed to the flexible structure of the collocation model. When compared to alternative water allocation models, lower values of reliability indices are achieved by the collocation method. 相似文献
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Ali Meshgi Davar Khalili 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(1):137-152
As part II of a sequence of two papers, previously developed L-moments by Hosking (1990), and the LH-moments by Wang (1997) are further investigated. The LH-moments (L to L4) are used to develop the regional parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution, generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution
and the generalized logistic (GLO) distributions. These respective probability distribution functions (PDFs) are evaluated
in terms of their performances. Flood peaks by the corresponding PDFs are compared with those generated by Monte Carlo simulation
of randomized data, considering the respective LH-moments. The influence of the LH-moments on estimated PDFs are studied by
evaluating the relative bias (RBIAS) in quantile estimation due to variability of the k parameter. Karkhe watershed located in western Iran was used as a case
study area. Part I of this study identified the study area as regions A and B. The minimum calculated relative root mean square
error (RRMSE) and RBIAS between simulated flood peaks and flood peaks by the corresponding PDFs were used in PDF selection, considering the respective
LH-moments. The boxplots of the RRMSE tests identified the L3 level of the GPA distribution as the suitable PDF for sample sizes 20 and 80; for region A. Similar results were found for
the RBIAS test. As for region B, the boxplots of the RRMSE tests indicated similar results for the three PDFs. However, the boxplots of the RBIAS tests identified the L4 level of the GLO most suitable for sample sizes 20 and 80. Relative efficiencies of the LH-moments were investigated, measured
as RRMSE ratios of L-moments over the respective LH-moments. For the most parts the findings of this part of the study were similar
to those of part I. 相似文献
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The Salmas geothermal field is located in NW Iran. Subduction of Neo-Tethys oceanic crust beneath the Iranian microcontinent caused to propagation of the magmatic-Arc. Fractures and faults in the convergent zone have created path-ways for the circulation of geothermal fluid. Fracture concentration in the Salmas geothermal field has been characterized using of the fractal method and creation of a fracture density map that shows the highest concentration in the central part of the study area. The permeability of fractures has been evaluated by analyzing their orientation in respect to the paleostress axes. Also, the fractal analyzing result indicates the maximum fractal dimension (1.96) is around the thermal spring outlet. Paleostress analyzing revealed that in the central part of the study area, σ1 axes orientation is S90°W/10° and the σ2 dip is near to the vertical in this stress field, where strike slip faults can be propagated. In the SE part near the recharge of the thermal springs, the σ3 plunge increases to 70? and σ1 orientation is N15°E/20°, in this local tectonic regime thrust fault developed. Fractures have an important role in the circulation of fluid and the fractal dimension increases near the thermal springs in the Salmas geothermal field. Regarding the paleostress data fracture with N-S direction such as the F1 fault zone (parallel to the σ1 axes), a suitable pathway for deep circulation of geothermal fluid flow has been created. 相似文献
10.
Increasing water demands, higher standards of living, depletion of resources of acceptable quality and excessive water pollution due to agricultural and industrial expansions have caused intense social and political predicaments, and conflicting issues among water consumers. The available techniques commonly used in reservoir optimization/operation do not consider interaction, behavior and preferences of water users, reservoir operator and their associated modeling procedures, within the stochastic modeling framework. In this paper, game theory is used to present the associated conflicts among different consumers due to limited water. Considering the game theory fundamentals, the Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game with perfect information (PSDNG) model is developed, which assumes that the decision maker has sufficient (perfect) information regarding the associated randomness of reservoir operation parameters. The simulated annealing approach (SA) is applied as a part of the proposed stochastic framework, which makes the PSDNG solution conceivable. As a case study, the proposed model is applied to the Zayandeh-Rud river basin in Iran with conflicting demands. The results are compared with alternative reservoir operation models, i.e., Bayesian stochastic dynamic programming (BSDP), sequential genetic algorithm (SGA) and classical dynamic programming regression (DPR). Results show that the proposed model has the ability to generate reservoir operating policies, considering interactions of water users, reservoir operator and their preferences. 相似文献