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Alluvial fan development in Alpine areas is often affected by catastrophic sedimentary processes associated with extreme ?oods events, causing serious risks for people living on the fans. Hazard assessment in these areas depends on proper identi?cation of the dominant sedimentary processes on the fans. Data from a set of 209 alluvial fans from the central Alps of Italy are presented in this paper and analysed with the help of various statistical techniques (linear regression, principal components analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis and logistic regression). First, we used modern sedimentary facies and historical records (?ood events since 15th century), to distinguish between the two dominant sedimentary processes on alluvial fans: debris ?ows and stream?ows. Then, in order to analyse the main controls on past and present fan processes, 36 morphological, geological and land‐use variables were analysed. As with observations for arid‐environment fans, catchment morphology is the most in?uential factor in the study area, whereas geology and land use are minor controls. The role of climatic change and landsliding within the catchments also seems to be very important and is discussed. Statistical techniques also help in differentiating groups of alluvial fans by sets of controlling factors, including stage and type of evolution. Finally, by using discriminant analysis and logistic regression, we classi?ed alluvial fans according to the dominant sedimentary process, with a success rate ranging between 75 and 92 per cent. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Large landslides and deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DSGSD) represent an important geo-hazard in relation to the deformation of large structures and infrastructures and to the associated secondary landslides. DSGSD movements, although slow (from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year), can continue for very long periods, producing large cumulative displacements and undergoing partial or complete reactivation. Therefore, it is important to map the activity of such phenomena at a regional scale. Ground surface displacements at DSGSD typically range close to the detection limit of monitoring equipment but are suitable for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry. In this paper, permanent scatterers (PSInSAR?) and SqueeSAR? techniques are used to analyse the activity of 133 DSGSD, in the Central Italian Alps. Statistical indicators for assigning a degree of activity to slope movements from displacement rates are discussed together with methods for analysing the movement and activity distribution within each landslide. In order to assess if a landslide is active or not, with a certain degree of reliability, three indicators are considered as optimal: the mean displacement rate, the activity index (ratio of active PS, displacement rate larger than standard deviation, overall PS) and the nearest neighbor ratio, which allows to describe the degree of clustering of the PS data. According to these criteria, 66% of the phenomena are classified as active in the monitored period 1992–2009. Finally, a new methodology for the use of SAR interferometry data to attain a classification of landslide kinematic behaviour is presented. This methodology is based on the interpretation of longitudinal ground surface displacement rate profiles in the light of numerical simulations of simplified failure geometries. The most common kinematic behaviour is rotational, amounting to 41 DSGSDs, corresponding to the 62.1% of the active phenomena. 相似文献
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Uncertainty assessment in quantitative rockfall risk assessment 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Xueliang Wang Paolo Frattini G. B. Crosta Luqing Zhang Federico Agliardi Serena Lari Zhifa Yang 《Landslides》2014,11(4):711-722
This study shows a quantitative rockfall risk assessment (QRA) for a slope of the Feifeng Mountain (China), including an explicit assessment of the uncertainties. For rockfall risk analysis, the annual probability of occurrence, reach probability, temporal–spatial probability and vulnerability of tourists were calculated for both dry and rainy day conditions. The resulting individual risk for exposed people visiting the historical site can be considered as acceptable for all scenarios, whereas the overall societal risk lies within the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) zone and therefore requires some mitigation actions. For the explicit assessment of uncertainty, an error propagation technique (first-order second moment (FOSM)) was adopted, starting from expert knowledge heuristic estimations of the coefficient of variation for each component of the risk analysis procedure. As a result, coefficients of variation of the calculated risk were obtained, ranging from 48 to 132 %, thus demonstrating the importance of accounting for uncertainty in rockfall risk modelling. A multi-criteria methodology is also proposed for the assessment of the standard deviation of the parameters adopted for the stochastic rockfall run-out model. 相似文献
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Debris-flows are widespread in Val di Fassa (Trento Province, Eastern Italian Alps) where they constitute one of the most dangerous gravity-induced surface processes. From a large set of environmental characteristics and a detailed inventory of debris flows, we developed five models to predict location of debris-flow source areas. The models differ in approach (statistical vs. physically-based) and type of terrain unit of reference (slope unit vs. grid cell). In the statistical models, a mix of several environmental factors classified areas with different debris-flow susceptibility; however, the factors that exert a strong discriminant power reduce to conditions of high slope-gradient, pasture or no vegetation cover, availability of detrital material, and active erosional processes. Since slope and land use are also used in the physically-based approach, all model results are largely controlled by the same leading variables.Overlaying susceptibility maps produced by the different methods (statistical vs. physically-based) for the same terrain unit of reference (grid cell) reveals a large difference, nearly 25% spatial mismatch. The spatial discrepancy exceeds 30% for susceptibility maps generated by the same method (discriminant analysis) but different terrain units (slope unit vs. grid cell). The size of the terrain unit also led to different susceptibility maps (almost 20% spatial mismatch). Maps based on different statistical tools (discriminant analysis vs. logistic regression) differed least (less than 10%). Hence, method and terrain unit proved to be equally important in mapping susceptibility.Model performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies, the number of debris-flow falling within the area classified as unstable by each model, and through the metric of ROC curves. Although all techniques implemented yielded results essentially comparable; the discriminant model based on the partition of the study area into small slope units may constitute the most suitable approach to regional debris-flow assessment in the Alpine environment. 相似文献
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Probabilistic thresholds for triggering shallow landslides by rainfall are developed using two approaches: a logistic regression model and Iverson's physically based model. Both approaches are applied to a 180 km2 area in northern Italy. For the physically based model a Monte Carlo approach is used to obtain probabilities of slope failure associated with differing combinations of rainfall intensity and duration as well as differing topographic settings. For the logistic regression model hourly and daily rainfall data and split‐sample testing are used to explore the effect of antecedent rainfall on triggering thresholds. It is demonstrated that both the statistical and physically based models provide stochastic thresholds that express the probability of landslide triggering. The resulting thresholds are comparable, even though the two approaches are conceptually different. The physically based model also provides an estimate of the percentage of potentially unstable areas in which failure can be triggered with a certain probability. The return period of rainfall responsible for landslide triggering is studied by using a Gumbel scaling model of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves. It is demonstrated that antecedent rainfall must be taken into account in landslide forecasting, and a method is proposed to correct the rainfall return period by filtering the rainfall maxima with a fixed threshold of antecedent rainfall. This correction produces an increase of the return periods, especially for rainstorms of short duration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Shallow landslides in pyroclastic soils: a distributed modelling approach for hazard assessment 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Paolo Frattini Giovanni B. Crosta Nicoletta Fusi Paolo Dal Negro 《Engineering Geology》2004,73(3-4):277-295
An effective assessment of shallow landslide hazard requires spatially distributed modelling of triggering processes. This is possible by using physically based models that allow us to simulate the transient hydrological and geotechnical processes responsible for slope instability. Some simplifications are needed to address the lack of data and the difficulty of calibration over complex terrain at the catchment's scale. We applied two simple hydrological models, coupled with the infinite slope stability analysis, to the May 1998 landslide event in Sarno, Southern Italy. A quasi-dynamic model (Barling et al., 1994) was used to model the contribution to instability of lateral flow by simulating the time-dependent formation of a groundwater table in response to rainfall. A diffusion model [Water Resour. Res. 36 (2000) 1897] was used to model the role of vertical flux by simulating groundwater pressures that develop in response to heavy rainstorms. The quasi-dynamic model overestimated the slope instability over the whole area (more than 16%) but was able to predict correctly slope instability within zero order basins where landslides occurred and developed into large debris flows. The diffusion model simulated correctly the triggering time of more than 70% of landslides within an unstable area amounting to 7.3% of the study area. These results support the hypothesis that both vertical and lateral fluxes were responsible for landslide triggering during the Sarno event, and confirm the utility of such models as tools for hazard planning and land management. 相似文献
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Assessment of rockfall susceptibility by integrating statistical and physically-based approaches 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
In Val di Fassa (Dolomites, Eastern Italian Alps) rockfalls constitute the most significant gravity-induced natural disaster that threatens both the inhabitants of the valley, who are few, and the thousands of tourists who populate the area in summer and winter.To assess rockfall susceptibility, we developed an integrated statistical and physically-based approach that aimed to predict both the susceptibility to onset and the probability that rockfalls will attain specific reaches. Through field checks and multi-temporal aerial photo-interpretation, we prepared a detailed inventory of both rockfall source areas and associated scree-slope deposits. Using an innovative technique based on GIS tools and a 3D rockfall simulation code, grid cells pertaining to the rockfall source-area polygons were classified as active or inactive, based on the state of activity of the associated scree-slope deposits. The simulation code allows one to link each source grid cell with scree deposit polygons by calculating the trajectory of each simulated launch of blocks. By means of discriminant analysis, we then identified the mix of environmental variables that best identifies grid cells with low or high susceptibility to rockfalls. Among these variables, structural setting, land use, and morphology were the most important factors that led to the initiation of rockfalls.We developed 3D simulation models of the runout distance, intensity and frequency of rockfalls, whose source grid cells corresponded either to the geomorphologically-defined source polygons (geomorphological scenario) or to study area grid cells with slope angle greater than an empirically-defined value of 37° (empirical scenario). For each scenario, we assigned to the source grid cells an either fixed or variable onset susceptibility; the latter was derived from the discriminant model group (active/inactive) membership probabilities.Comparison of these four models indicates that the geomorphological scenario with variable onset susceptibility appears to be the most realistic model. Nevertheless, political and legal issues seem to guide local administrators, who tend to select the more conservative empirically-based scenario as a land-planning tool. 相似文献
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Landslide hazard,monitoring and conservation strategy for the safeguard of Vardzia Byzantine monastery complex,Georgia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1