Adaptive Delta Management for flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht,The Netherlands     

Gersonius  B.  Rijke  J.  Ashley  R.  Bloemen  P.  Kelder  E.  Zevenbergen  C. 《Natural Hazards》2015,82(2):201-216

Many countries across the world are experiencing strict austerity measures due to the economic crisis. As a consequence, public financing for stand-alone adaptation to flooding and drought will become scarcer in the (near) future, and this hampers the pursuit of resilience (i.e. the ability to remain functioning under a range of hazard magnitudes). In such times, key challenges for adaptation are further complicated by weaker investment dynamics and an increased tendency to ‘work in silos’. These are: to minimise regret with respect to maladaptation, which results from over- or under-investment in water hazard management; to exploit the opportunities for mainstreaming adaptation to flooding and drought into other investment agendas; and to deliver multiple benefits for society and the economy, such as increased biodiversity, liveability and competitiveness. These common challenges drive the best way in which to adapt to uncertain climate and socio-economic changes. In the Netherlands, the Delta Programme has developed and applied a structured and well-defined approach (called Adaptive Delta Management) for including and acting upon uncertainty around these future changes. This approach allows for greater transparency to decision-makers and stakeholders, because it adheres to four specific steps for strategy development. This paper presents the current understanding of Adaptive Delta Management and an illustration of the approach for the management of flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht. It examines the added value and limitations of Adaptive Delta Management concerning its application in the context of the Delta Programme, with a specific emphasis on the lessons learned from Dordrecht.

  相似文献   

Climate change uncertainty: building flexibility into water and flood risk infrastructure   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Berry Gersonius  Richard Ashley  Assela Pathirana  Chris Zevenbergen 《Climatic change》2013,116(2):411-423

Infrastructure for water, urban drainage and flood protection has a typical lifetime of 30–200 years and its continuing performance is very sensitive to climate change. Investment decisions for such systems are frequently based on state-of-the-art impact assessments using a specified climate change scenario in order to identify a singular optimal adaptive strategy. In a non-stationary world, however, it is risky and/or uneconomic to plan for just one climate change scenario as an average or best estimate, as is done with the use of the Predict-Then-Adapt method. We argue that responsible adaptation requires an alternative method that effectively allows for the lack of knowledge about future climate change by adopting a managed/adaptive strategy. The managed/adaptive strategy confers the ability, derived from built-in flexibility, to adjust to future uncertainties as they unfold. This will restrict the effect of erroneous decisions and help avoid maladaptation. Real In Options (RIO) analysis can facilitate the development of an optimal managed/adaptive strategy to climate change. Here, we show the economic benefits of adopting a managed/adaptive strategy and building in flexibility, using RIO analysis applied for the first time to urban drainage infrastructure.  相似文献   

Taming global flood disasters. Lessons learned from Dutch experience   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Chris Zevenbergen  Sebastiaan van Herk  Jeroen Rijke  Pavel Kabat  Pieter Bloemen  Richard Ashley  Andrew Speers  Berry Gersonius  William Veerbeek 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1217-1225

There is a growing international recognition that flood risk management in optima forma should be a programmed and flexible process of continuously improving management practices by active learning about the outcome of earlier and ongoing interventions and drivers of change. In the Netherlands, such a long-term, adaptive flood risk management strategy is now being implemented. This so-called second Delta Programme aims to identify and exploit opportunities and capitalize on short-term benefits and opportunistic synergies that arise from change and will require adaptive policymaking. It also requires the financial and institutional means to operate in a long-lasting way, which at the very least, means engaging stakeholders, gathering and disseminating results and adaptation of future plans. Transferring the Dutch approach to other countries is a major challenge that calls for fundamental changes in institutional arrangements at various levels and thus requires customized programmes for strategic institutional change. Recent examples of transfer will provide important lessons of how institutional change can successfully occur and will contribute insights for other countries that attempting to reform their flood risk management strategies. Continuous monitoring and evaluation and sharing international experiences will become crucial for the effective delivery and wider uptake of these new strategies around the globe.  相似文献   

The storyline approach: a new way to analyse and improve flood event management     

K. M. de Bruijn  N. Lips  B. Gersonius  H. Middelkoop 《Natural Hazards》2016,81(1):99-121

  相似文献