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区域地震似然模型(RELM)工作组的5年实验是设计用来比较预测加州及附近各纬度-经度-震级单元地震发生率的若干有希望的方法。这种预测模式被作为世界范围内其他地震可预测性试验的蓝本,因此考虑如何评估这种预测的性能是很重要的。最近采用的两个试验都基于给定预测情况下观测到的地震分布的概率,一个测试比较了空间-发生率-震级单元的观测值和预测值,另一个测试仅仅比较了预测的发生率和观测地震的数目。在本文中,我们讨论了目前关于发生率预测的微小的缺陷,我们建议采用另外两个测试分别进行空间-发生率-震级预测的空间和震级分量的预测。为了更好地说明问题,我们考虑了区域地震似然模型预测和进行区域地震似然模型实验的前半期观测到的地震分布。我们得出空间—发生率—震级预测好像是和观测地震的分布相一致,尽管空间预测和观测地震的空间分布是不一致的,我们建议这些新的测试应该被用于提供更详细的地震预测评估。我们也讨论了每个基于似然测试的统计学功效以及基于似然测试的结果的稳定性(相对于地震目录的不确定性)。 相似文献
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Efficient testing of earthquake forecasting models 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
David A. Rhoades Danijel Schorlemmer Matthew C. Gerstenberger Annemarie Christophersen J. Douglas Zechar Masajiro Imoto 《Acta Geophysica》2011,59(4):728-747
Computationally efficient alternatives are proposed to the likelihood-based tests employed by the Collaboratory for the Study
of Earthquake Predictability for assessing the performance of earthquake likelihood models in the earthquake forecast testing
centers. For the conditional L-test, which tests the consistency of the earthquake catalogue with a model, an exact test using convolutions of distributions
is available when the number of earthquakes in the test period is small, and the central limit theorem provides an approximate
test when the number of earthquakes is large. Similar methods are available for the R-test, which compares the likelihoods of two competing models. However, the R-test, like the N-test and L-test, is fundamentally a test of consistency of data with a model. We propose an alternative test, based on the classical
paired t-test, to more directly compare the likelihoods of two models. Although approximate and predicated on a normality assumption,
this new T-test is not computer-intensive, is easier to interpret than the R-test, and becomes increasingly dependable as the number of earthquakes increases. 相似文献
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C. Siefert R. Tuminaro A. Gerstenberger G. Scovazzi S. S. Collis 《Computational Geosciences》2014,18(5):597-612
We present a parallel algebraic multigrid (AMG) algorithm for the implicit solution of the Darcy problem discretized by the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method that scales optimally for regular and irregular meshes. The main idea centers on recasting the preconditioning problem so that existing AMG solvers for nodal lower order finite elements can be leveraged. This is accomplished by a transformation operator which maps the solution from a Lagrange basis representation to a Legendre basis representation. While this mapping function must be user supplied, we demonstrate how easily it can be constructed for somepopular finite element representations includingquadrilateral/hexahedral and triangular/tetrahedral DG formulations. Furthermore, we show that the mapping does not depend on the Jacobian transformation between reference and physical space and so it can be constructed with very limited mesh information. Parallel performance studies demonstrate the versatility of this approach. 相似文献
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Bimodal metavolcanic rocks, granitic gneisses and metasediments are associated in the Frankenberg massif, Germany. These rocks are faulted against underlying very low-grade Palaeozoic sequences and adjacent metamorphic complexes of the Variscan basement. The granitic gneisses record an Rb–Sr whole-rock isochron age of 461±20 Ma that is taken as at least a minimum protolith age. The bimodal meta-igneous suites are interpreted to have formed during rifting of the Gondwana continental margin in the Cambro-Ordovician. The various metamorphic units have all experienced a common P–T history. The peak-pressure stage is constrained to around 490–520 °C and 10–14 kbar (10–12 kbar being most realistic). The metamorphism proceeded along a clockwise P–T path towards conditions of around 580–610 °C and 7–8.5 kbar at the thermal peak followed by a final low-pressure overprint which spanned amphibolite facies to prehnite–actinolite facies temperatures. Owing to a secondary Rb–Sr whole-rock isochron age of 381±24 Ma, interpreted to date the retrograde stage, the whole metamorphic cycle in the Frankenberg massif is ascribed to the late Silurian–early Devonian high-pressure event widely recorded in the European Variscides. The antiformal complexes bordering the Frankenberg massif underwent a well-documented early Carboniferous metamorphism, suggesting that the Frankenberg massif constitutes a klippe which was overthrust towards the end of this second metamorphic cycle. 相似文献
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美国地质调查局(USGS)5月18日宣布开放一个可显示加州地区未来24小时内发生地震概率的公共网站。在余震或可能的前震序列期间,它以地图的形式向人们展示地震发生概率的变化。 相似文献
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尽管缺少可信的确定性地震前兆,但地震学家通过对地震丛集属性日渐精确的理解,已经获得了地震活动的重要的预测信息。在过去的15年间和较大的地震序列期间,公众可以近实时地得到基于一般短期丛集模型并与时间有关的地震概率。这些预报描述一个给定震级主震之后可能发生地震事件的平均概率和数目,但并不适合于当前特定的序列和不包含可能的余震位置信息。我们的模型在两方面依赖于一般的预测模型的基本原则：它以强地面震动概率表述预测,并将一个现有的基于断层数据和历史地震并与时间无关的发震模型,和描述与时间有关的区域地震丛集的渐增的复杂模型结合起来,得到一个在加州任何地方未来24小时强震动概率随时间变化的地图。我们的地震危险性建模方法可以帮助大家较好地理解随时间变化的地震危险性,并增加它对公众、应急决策者和媒体的实用性。 相似文献
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New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre is being established as one of several similar regional testing centres under the umbrella of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The Centre aims to encourage the development of testable models of time-varying earthquake occurrence in the New Zealand region, and to conduct verifiable prospective tests of their performance over a period of five or more years. The test region, data-collection region and requirements for testing are described herein. Models must specify in advance the expected number of earthquakes with epicentral depths h ≤ 40 km in bins of time, magnitude and location within the test region. Short-term models will be tested using 24-h time bins at magnitude M ≥ 4. Intermediate-term models and long-term models will be tested at M ≥ 5 using 3-month, 6-month and 5-year bins, respectively. The tests applied will be the same as at other CSEP testing centres: the so-called N test of the total number of earthquakes expected over the test period; the L test of the likelihood of the earthquake catalogue under the model; and the R test of the ratio of the likelihoods under alternative models. Four long-term, three intermediate-term and two short-term models have been installed to date in the testing centre, with tests of these models commencing on the New Zealand earthquake catalogue from the beginning of 2008. Submission of models is open to researchers worldwide. New models can be submitted at any time. The New Zealand testing centre makes extensive use of software produced by the CSEP testing centre in California. It is envisaged that, in time, the scope of the testing centre will be expanded to include new testing methods and differently-specified models, nonetheless that the New Zealand testing centre will develop in parallel with other regional testing centres through the CSEP international collaborative process. 相似文献
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P. Mo
ller P. Dulski H. Gerstenberger G. Morteani A. Fuganti 《Applied Geochemistry》1998,13(8):975-994
The sparkling waters from the area of Kyselka near Karlovy Vary at the western slope of the Doupovske hory, Bohemia (Czech Republic), and CO2-poor waters from two underground boreholes at Jachymov, Krusne hory, Bohemia, have been studied with the aim of characterizing the distribution of rare earth elements, yttrium, and H, O, C, Sr, Nd, Pb isotopes during the low-temperature alteration processes of the host rocks. Additionally, leaching experiments were performed at pH 3 on the granitic and basaltic host rocks from Kyselka and the granite of Jachymov. All REE patterns of the granite- and the basalt-derived waters from the Kyselka area are different from those of their source rocks and the leachates of the latter. This elucidates the inhomogeneous distribution of REE and Y among the solid phases in the altered magmatic rocks. The Eu and Ce anomalies in granite-derived waters are inherited, the Y anomaly is achieved by fluid migration. Yttrium is always preferentially leached by mineral waters, whereas Y/Ho ratios of rocks and their leachates are very similar. The REE abundances in waters from the wells in Jachymov are derived from rocks intensely leached and depleted in easily soluble REE-bearing minerals, whereas the granites and basalts from Kyselka still contain soluble, REE-bearing minerals. A comparison of REE/Ca patterns of the experimental leachates with those of the mineral waters elucidate the high retention of REE in rocks during water–rock interaction. In strongly altered rocks Sr isotope ratios of mineral waters and rocks differ widely, whereas the corresponding Nd isotope ratios are very similar. 207Pb/208Pb, 206Pb/208Pb and 206Pb/207Pb ratios in mineral waters are independent from U/Th ratios in the rocks. 206Pb/208Pb and 206Pb/207Pb are lower in mineral waters than in their source rocks and their leachates, which indicates that Pb is primarily derived from solid phases that do not contain significant contents of leachable U and Th. Thus, mineral waters, although CO2 rich, only interact with surface films on minerals and not with the bulk of the minerals as in the leaching experiments.Calculation of mixing ratios of waters from the granitic and basaltic sources of the waters from the Kyselka area yield about 40% of water from the underlying granite in water recovered from the basalt, whereas the granite-derived water is mixed with only about 5% of the water from the basalt. 相似文献