Orbit computation for transneptunian objects     

Jenni Virtanen  Gonzalo Tancredi  Edward Bowell 《Icarus》2003,161(2):419-430

Using statistical orbital ranging, we systematically study the orbit computation problem for transneptunian objects (TNOs). We have automated orbit computation for large numbers of objects, and, more importantly, we are able to obtain orbits even for the most sparsely observed objects (observational arcs of a few days). For such objects, the resulting orbit distributions include a large number of high-eccentricity orbits, in which TNOs can be perturbed by close encounters with Neptune. The stability of bodies on the computed orbits has therefore been ascertained by performing a study of close encounters with the major planets. We classify TNO orbit distributions statistically, and we study the evolution of their ephemeris uncertainties. We find that the orbital element distributions for the most numerous single-apparition TNOs do not support the existence of a postulated sharp edge to the belt beyond 50 AU. The technique of statistical ranging provides ephemeris predictions more generally than previously possible also for poorly observed TNOs.  相似文献   

The role of bathymetry and directional wave conditions on observed crescentic bar dynamics     

Rinse L. de Swart  Francesca Ribas  Gonzalo Simarro  Jorge Guillén  Daniel Calvete 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(15):3252-3270

Nearshore sandbars are important features in the surf zone of many beaches because they strongly influence the mean circulation and evolving morphology. Due to variations in wave conditions, sandbars can experience cross-shore migration and vary in shape from alongshore uniform (shore-parallel) to alongshore rhythmic (crescentic). Sandbar dynamics have been studied extensively, but existing observational studies usually do not quantify the processes leading to crescentic bar formation and straightening. This study analyses the dynamics of crescentic bar events at the fetch-limited beach of Castelldefels (northwestern Mediterranean Sea, Spain) using 7.5 years of hourly time-exposure video images and detailed wave conditions. The results show that, despite the generally calm wave conditions, the sandbars were very dynamic in the cross-shore and longshore directions. They often migrated rapidly offshore during storms (up to 70 m in one day) and more slowly onshore during post-storm conditions. Crescentic bars were often present at the study site (48% of the time), but only when the sandbar was at least 10 m from the shoreline. They displayed a large variability in wavelengths (100–700 m), alongshore migration speeds (0–50 m/day) and cross-shore amplitudes (5–20 m). Wavelengths increased for larger bar–shoreline distances and the alongshore migration speeds were strongly correlated with the alongshore component of the radiation stresses. Crescentic patterns typically developed during low–medium energetic waves with limited obliquity ( $\theta \lesssim 20$° at 10 m depth), while bar straightening occurred during medium–high energetic waves with strong oblique angles of incidence ( $\theta \gtrsim 15$°). Overall, this study provides further proof for the important role of wave direction in crescentic bar dynamics and highlights the strong dependence of crescentic bar development on the initial bathymetric configuration.  相似文献   

Tsunami potential from local seismic sources along the southern Middle America Trench     

N. Zamora  A. Y. Babeyko 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(2):901-934

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Statistical forecast of the marine surge     

Quintana  Gonzalo Iñaki  Tandeo  Pierre  Drumetz  Lucas  Leballeur  Laurent  Pavec  Marc 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(3):2905-2917

Natural Hazards - This paper studies different machine learning methods for solving the regression problem of estimating the marine surge value given meteorological data. The marine surge is...  相似文献   

Boosting for Mineral Prospectivity Modeling: A New GIS Toolbox     

Brandmeier  Melanie  Cabrera Zamora  Irving Gibran  Nykänen  Vesa  Middleton  Maarit 《Natural Resources Research》2020,29(1):71-88

With an increasing demand for raw materials, predictive models that support successful mineral exploration targeting are of great importance. We evaluated different machine learning techniques with an emphasis on boosting algorithms and implemented them in an ArcGIS toolbox. Performance was tested on an exploration dataset from the Iberian Pyrite Belt (IPB) with respect to accuracy, performance, stability, and robustness. Boosting algorithms are ensemble methods used in supervised learning for regression and classification. They combine weak classifiers, i.e., classifiers that perform slightly better than random guessing to obtain robust classifiers. Each time a weak learner is added; the learning set is reweighted to give more importance to misclassified samples. Our test area, the IPB, is one of the oldest mining districts in the world and hosts giant volcanic-hosted massive sulfide (VMS) deposits. The spatial density of ore deposits, as well as the size and tonnage, makes the area unique, and due to the high data availability and number of known deposits, well-suited for testing machine learning algorithms. We combined several geophysical datasets, as well as layers derived from geological maps as predictors of the presence or absence of VMS deposits. Boosting algorithms such as BrownBoost and Adaboost were tested and compared to Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forests (RF) and Support Vector machines (SVM) in several experiments. We found performance results relatively similar, especially to BrownBoost, which slightly outperformed LR and SVM with respective accuracies of 0.96 compared to 0.89 and 0.93. Data augmentation by perturbing deposit location led to a 7% improvement in results. Variations in the split ratio of training and test data led to a reduction in the accuracy of the prediction result with relative stability occurring at a critical point at around 26 training samples out of 130 total samples. When lower numbers of training data were introduced accuracy dropped significantly. In comparison with other machine learning methods, Adaboost is user-friendly due to relatively short training and prediction times, the low likelihood of overfitting and the reduced number of hyperparameters for optimization. Boosting algorithms gave high predictive accuracies, making them a potential data-driven alternative for regional scale and/or brownfields mineral exploration.

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Geology and hazard implications of the Maraunot notch in the Pinatubo Caldera,Philippines     

A. M. F. Lagmay  K. S. Rodolfo  F. P. Siringan  H. Uy  C. Remotigue  P. Zamora  M. Lapus  R. Rodolfo  J. Ong 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2007,69(7):797-809

The 1991 Pinatubo eruption left 5–6 km³ of debris on the volcano slopes, much of which has been mobilized into large lahars in the following rainy seasons. Also during the eruption, collapse, localized in part along preexisting faults, left a caldera 2.5 km in diameter that almost immediately began to accumulate a 1.6 × 10⁸ m³ lake. By 2001, the water had risen to the fault-controlled Maraunot Notch, the lowest, northwestern portion of the caldera rim comprising the physiographic sill of the Caldera Lake. That year, a narrow artificial canal dug into an old volcanic breccia underlying the outlet channel failed to induce a deliberate lake breakout, but discharge from heavy rains in July 2002 rapidly deepened the notch by 23 m, releasing an estimated 6.5 × 10⁷ m³ of lake water that bulked up into lahars with a volume well in excess of 1.6 × 10⁸ m³. Lakes in other volcanoes have experienced multiple breakouts, providing practical motivation for this study. Fieldwork and high-resolution digital elevation models reveal andesites and ancient lacustrine deposits, strongly fractured and deformed along a segment of the Maraunot Fault, a prominent, steeply dipping, left-lateral fault zone that trends N35°–40°W within and parallel to the notch. Seismicity in 1991 demonstrated that the Maraunot Fault is still active. The fault zone appears to have previously been the erosional locus for a large channel, filled with avalanche or landslide deposits of an earlier eruption that were exhumed by the 2002 breakout floods. The deformed lacustrine sediments, with an uncalibrated ¹⁴C age of 14,760 ± 40 year BP from a single charcoal sample, attest to the existence of an earlier lake, possibly within the Tayawan Caldera, rim remnants of which survive as arcuate escarpments. That lake may well have experienced one or more ancient breakouts as well. The 2002 event greatly reduced the possibility of another such event by scouring away the erodible breccia, leaving less erodible fractured andesites and lacustrine rocks, and by enlarging the outlet channel and its discharge capacity. Several lines of evidence indicate, however, that future lahar-generating lake breakouts at the notch may keep populations of Botolan municipality downstream at risk: (1) a volume of 9.5 × 10⁷ m³ of lake water remains perched 0.8 km above sea level; (2) seismicity in 1991 demonstrated that the Maraunot Fault is still active and movements of sufficient magnitude could enlarge the outlet and the discharge through it; (3) more likely, however, with or without earthquake activity, landslides from the steep to overhanging channel walls could block the channel again, and a major rainstorm could then cause a rise in lake level and sudden breakouts; (4) intrusion of a new dome into the bottom of the lake, possibly accompanied by phreatic explosions, could expel large volumes of lahar-generating water.  相似文献   

State of fundamental knowledge inferred from the study of globular clusters     

Gonzalo Alcaino 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1980,70(2):363-375

A critical review is presented of fundamental conclusions on the evolution of galaxies as derived from the information provided by studies of globular clusters. It is stressed that most of the essential results concerning our Galaxy — as well as extragalactic systems — depend strongly on effects involving the accuracies of the data and sample incompleteness. High-quality observations of a much larger group of objects than presently available are required before any definite conclusions can be drawn.  相似文献   

The impact of land use change and check‐dams on catchment sediment yield     

Carolina Boix‐Fayos  Joris de Vente  María Martínez‐Mena  Gonzalo G. Barberá  Víctor Castillo 《水文研究》2008,22(25):4922-4935

Extensive land use changes have occurred in many areas of SE Spain as a result of reforestation and the abandonment of agricultural activities. Parallel to this the Spanish Administration spends large funds on hydrological control works to reduce erosion and sediment transport. However, it remains untested how these large land use changes affect the erosion processes at the catchment scale and if the hydrological control works efficiently reduce sediment export. A combination of field work, mapping and modelling was used to test the influence of land use scenarios with and without sediment control structures (check‐dams) on sediment yield at the catchment scale. The study catchment is located in SE Spain and suffered important land use changes, increasing the forest cover 3‐fold and decreasing the agricultural land 2·5‐fold from 1956 to 1997. In addition 58 check‐dams were constructed in the catchment in the 1970s accompanying reforestation works. The erosion model WATEM‐SEDEM was applied using six land use scenarios: land use in 1956, 1981 and 1997, each with and without check‐dams. Calibration of the model provided a model efficiency of 0·84 for absolute sediment yield. Model application showed that in a scenario without check dams, the land use changes between 1956 and 1997 caused a progressive decrease in sediment yield of 54%. In a scenario without land use changes but with check‐dams, about 77% of the sediment yield was retained behind the dams. Check‐dams can be efficient sediment control measures, but with a short‐lived effect. They have important side‐effects, such as inducing channel erosion downstream. While also having side‐effects, land use changes can have important long‐term effects on sediment yield. The application of either land use changes (i.e. reforestation) or check‐dams to control sediment yield depends on the objective of the management and the specific environmental conditions of each area. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Magnetic susceptibility and electrical conductivity as a proxy for evaluating soil contaminated with arsenic,cadmium and lead in a metallurgical area in the San Luis Potosi State,Mexico     

Isabel Pérez  Francisco Martín Romero  Olivia Zamora  Margarita Eugenia Gutiérrez-Ruiz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(5):1521-1531

A total of 113 samples of waste and soil were collected from a site in the state of San Luis Potosi, Mexico, that was occupied for several years by the metallurgical industry. Specific magnetic susceptibility (MS), electrical conductivity (EC) and pH were determined, as well as the total and available concentrations of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) such as As, Cd, Cu, Fe, Pb and Zn, which may cause a health risk for humans, animals and ecosystems, and the concentrations of major ions in aqueous extracts of soils and wastes. The solid phases of the samples were also characterized. The results revealed that the soils and wastes exhibited elevated values of PTEs, MS and EC. For soils these values decreased with increasing distance from the waste storage sites. The MS values were elevated primarily due to the presence of Fe-oxyhydroxides, such as magnetite, hematite and goethite, which contain PTEs in their structure leading to a high correlation between the value of MS and the As, Cd, Fe and Pb contents (r = 0.57–0.91) as well as between the PTEs values (r = 0.68–0.92). The elevated EC values measured in the metallurgical wastes were the result of presence of the sulfate minerals of Ca, Mg and Fe. The pollution index, which indicates the levels of simultaneous toxicity from elements such as As, Cd and Pb, was determined, with extreme hazard zones corresponding to areas that exhibit high MS values (0.91 correlation). In conclusion, MS measurements can be used as an indirect indicator to evaluate the PTE contamination in metallurgical areas, and EC measurements can aid in the identification of pollution sources.  相似文献   

Archean to Recent aeolian sand systems and their sedimentary record: Current understanding and future prospects     

Juan Pedro Rodríguez‐López  Lars B. Clemmensen  Nick Lancaster  Nigel P. Mountney  Gonzalo D. Veiga 《Sedimentology》2014,61(6):1487-1534

The sedimentary record of aeolian sand systems extends from the Archean to the Quaternary, yet current understanding of aeolian sedimentary processes and product remains limited. Most preserved aeolian successions represent inland sand‐sea or dunefield (erg) deposits, whereas coastal systems are primarily known from the Cenozoic. The complexity of aeolian sedimentary processes and facies variability are under‐represented and excessively simplified in current facies models, which are not sufficiently refined to reliably account for the complexity inherent in bedform morphology and migratory behaviour, and therefore cannot be used to consistently account for and predict the nature of the preserved sedimentary record in terms of formative processes. Archean and Neoproterozoic aeolian successions remain poorly constrained. Palaeozoic ergs developed and accumulated in relation to the palaeogeographical location of land masses and desert belts. During the Triassic, widespread desert conditions prevailed across much of Europe. During the Jurassic, extensive ergs developed in North America and gave rise to anomalously thick aeolian successions. Cretaceous aeolian successions are widespread in South America, Africa, Asia, and locally in Europe (Spain) and the USA. Several Eocene to Pliocene successions represent the direct precursors to the present‐day systems. Quaternary systems include major sand seas (ergs) in low‐lattitude and mid‐latitude arid regions, Pleistocene carbonate and Holocene–Modern siliciclastic coastal systems. The sedimentary record of most modern aeolian systems remains largely unknown. The majority of palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of aeolian systems envisage transverse dunes, whereas successions representing linear and star dunes remain under‐recognized. Research questions that remain to be answered include: (i) what factors control the preservation potential of different types of aeolian bedforms and what are the characteristics of the deposits of different bedform types that can be used for effective reconstruction of original bedform morphology; (ii) what specific set of controlling conditions allow for sustained bedform climb versus episodic sequence accumulation and preservation; (iii) can sophisticated four‐dimensional models be developed for complex patterns of spatial and temporal transition between different mechanisms of accumulation and preservation; and (iv) is it reasonable to assume that the deposits of preserved aeolian successions necessarily represent an unbiased record of the conditions that prevailed during episodes of Earth history when large‐scale aeolian systems were active, or has the evidence to support the existence of other major desert basins been lost for many periods throughout Earth history?  相似文献