Seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka and its applications to the M = 6.6 earthquake of 6 October 1987     

V. M. Zobin  E. I. Gordeev  V. F. Bakhtiarov  E. I. Ivanova  Yu. M. Khatkevich  V. N. Khodenko  V. E. Levin  V. P. Mityakin 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(1):51-70

The earthquake of 6 October 1987 (M = 6.6), which occurred near the Shipunsky Cape, Kamchatka, was the largest crustal event in the vicinity of the main city of Kamchatka — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky — during the last three decades. It was followed by numerous aftershocks. This earthquake allowed us to test the effectiveness of the seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka, including the seismological, geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys. The seismic survey provided the location and source nature of the main shock and aftershocks and the seismic environment of the main shock. The geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys have yielded data on the response to earthquakes of the Earth's surface deformations, water level, and chemical elements concentration in the underground water. As a result, the following data were obtained:

u

The earthquake of 6 October had a seismic moment 4–10 E18 Nm, thrust type of faulting and the source volume of 20 × 20 × 10 km³. The maximum intensity was VI–VII (MSK-64 scale) and maximum acceleration 88 cm/s².

Before this event, a relative increase in the number of the upper mantle (depth more than 100 km) moderate magnitude earthquakes during 5 years and a one-year period of seismic quiescence for small shallow earthquakes, were recognized. Significant anomalies in HCO₃ and H₃BO₃ concentrations in the underground waters were observed in the wells a week before the main shock.

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Forecasting the water inflow into the Krasnoyarsk and Sayano-Shushenskoe reservoirs in the second quarter of the year     

D. A. Burakov  I. N. Gordeev  A. V. Ignatov  O. E. Petkun  L. A. Putintsev  A. A. Chekmarev 《Geography and Natural Resources》2016,37(2):158-164

We consider the various methods of constructing models intended to forecast the average water inflow, in the second quarter of the year, into two reservoirs on the Yenisei river. To solve modeling problems used a new computer technology implemented in the specialized “Stochastic Modeling” software package. Independent data were employed to verify the variants of the models for the formation of variability in quarterly inflow as generated based on different algorithms. A more sophisticated and robust model for forecasting the inflow was constructed as an ensemble of partial models. Based on aggregate results of modeling, we suggest the method of constructing a forecast of the average (for the second quarter) lateral inflow into the Krasnoyarsk reservoir and the inflow into the Sayano-Shushenskoe reservoir by use of observational data accumulated by Srednesibirskoe UGMS (Weather Control and Environmental Monitoring Service), based on an ensemble of partial models. It is established that such an operation reduces the probability of forecasting errors implying an arbitrary selection of models. We constructed forecasts of the aforementioned characteristics using real-time data for 2015. It is stated that the solution of the forecasting problem can be facilitated by using additional information.  相似文献   

Geochemistry of Suspended Matter from Waters of the Amazon Basin     

V. V. Gordeev  G. N. Baturin 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2018,482(1):1161-1164

The geochemical study of the suspended matter in the waters of the Amazon River and its tributaries revealed that the chemical composition of this material ranges widely; however, generally, it is similar to the average composition of the suspended matter in the rivers and clayey sedimentary rocks around the world. Against this background, an essential regional Hg enrichment due to the anthropogenic factor is distinguished. The suspensions from the so-called clear waters from the tributaries of the Amazon River—Xingu and Trombetas—demonstrate the local enrichment in Pb, Sn, Zn, and organic carbon indicating the ore mineralization of the drainage basin, and points to the presence of metal-organic complexes.  相似文献   

Concentrations of Chemical Elements in the Water and Suspended Matter of the Northern Dvina River and the Annual Gross Runoff to the White Sea     

Gordeev  V. V.  Shevchenko  V. P.  Korobov  V. B.  Kochenkova  A. I.  Starodymova  D. P.  Belorukov  S. K.  Lokhov  A. S.  Yakovlev  A. E.  Chultsova  A. L.  Zolotykh  E. O.  Lobkovsky  L. I. 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2021,500(1):787-793

Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of four years of continuous investigations (from May 2015 through April 2019) of the elemental composition of the water of the Northern Dvina River are...  相似文献   

Hydrogeochemical Precursors in Kamchatka (Russia) Related to the Strongest Earthquakes in 1988–1997     

Biagi  P. F.  Ermini  A.  Cozzi  E.  Khatkevich  Y. M.  Gordeev  E. I. 《Natural Hazards》2000,21(2-3):263-276

The Kamchatka peninsula, located in the far east of Russia, is a geologically active margin where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the North American and Eurasia plates. This area is characterised by frequent and strong seismic activity (magnitudes up to 8.5) and epicentres are generally distributed offshore along the eastern coast of the peninsula. For many years, hydrogeochemicals have been collected with a mean sampling frequency of three days in the form of the flow rate and the most common ions and gases in the groundwater of three deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula, where the capital city Petropavlovsk is located. Beginning in 1988, five earthquakes with M > 6.5 occurred in this area. These earthquakes were powerful enough to be considered as potential precursor sources in the sense that the stresses and strains building up before them might be expected to cause precursory activity. In order to reveal any possible precursors of these earthquakes, we analysed the hydrogeochemical data collected. We considered any signal having an amplitude three times the standard deviation to be an irregularity and we defined as an anomaly the existence of an irregularity occurring simultaneously in more than one parameter at each well. Then, on the basis of the worldwide past results and the time recurrence of the quoted earthquakes, we chose 158 days as the maximum temporal window between a possible anomaly and the subsequent earthquake. We identified some premonitory anomalies in hydrogeochemical parameters at different wells. On the basis of these results some earthquake forecasting criteria in southern Kamchatka may be tentatively formulated  相似文献   

A comparative study of geothermal and meteorological records of climate change in Kamchatka     

V. Čermák  J. Šafanda  L. Bodri  M. Yamano  E. Gordeev 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2006,50(4):675-695

To reconstruct the recent climate history in Kamchatka, a series of repeated precise temperature logs were performed in a number of boreholes located in a broad east-west strip (between 52 and 54°N) in the central part of Kamchatka west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski. Within three years more than 30 temperature logs were performed in 10 holes (one up to six logs per hole) to the depth of up to 400 metres. Measured temperature gradients varied in a broad interval 0 to 60 mK/m and in some holes a sizeable variation in the subsurface temperatures due to advective heat transport by underground water was observed. Measured data were compared with older temperature profiles obtained in the early eighties by Sugrobov and Yanovsky (1993). Even when older data are of poorer precision (accuracy of about 0.1 K), they presented valuable information of the subsurface temperature conditions existing 20–25 years ago. Borehole observations and the inverted ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) used for the paleoclimate reconstruction were complemented with a detailed survey of meteorological data. Namely, the long-term surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation records from Petropavlovsk station (in operation since 1890) were used together with similar data from a number of local subsidiary meteo-stations operating in Central Kamchatka since 1950. Regardless of extreme complexity of the local meteorological/climate conditions, diversity of borehole sites and calibration of measuring devices used during the whole campaign, the results of the climate reconstruction supported a general warming of about 1 K characteristic for the 20th century, which followed an inexpressive cooler period typical for the most of the 19th century. In the last three to four decades the warming rate has been locally increasing up to 0.02 K/year. It was also shown that the snow cover played a dominant role in the penetration of the climate “signal” to depth and could considerably smooth down the subsurface response to the changes occurred on the surface.  相似文献   

TV system for navigation and guidance     

G. A. Avanesov  R. V. Gordeev  V. A. Grishin  B. S. Zhukov  S. B. Zhukov  E. V. Kolomeets  E. B. Krasnopevtseva  M. I. Kudelin  A. A. Krupin  V. M. Murav’ev  A. A. Forsh 《Solar System Research》2010,44(5):444-450

A TV system for navigation and guidance (TVSNG) has been designed for solving the navigation and scientific tasks of the Phobos-Grunt mission. It consists of two narrow-angle and two wide-angle television cameras. Each camera has a built-in processor for the real-time processing of received images. The program of TVSNG observations includes three modes: Imaging of Stars, Sequential Imaging, and Landing. The first two modes will be used to calibrate the TVSNG against the stars, to take images of Phobos and Mars, and to detect the dust rings of Mars. In the Landing mode, the height and velocity components of the spacecraft during the landing on Phobos will be measured, and an autonomous selection of the landing site will be made.  相似文献   

Radiation monitoring in Bryansk Polesie twenty-one years after the Chernobyl NPP accident     

E. V. Kvasnikova  S. M. Vakulovskii  S. K. Gordeev  O. M. Zhukova  S. V. Konstantinov  D. A. Manzon  V. N. Yakhryushin 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2009,34(7):454-463

Bryansk Polesie is the most ¹³⁷Cs-contaminated region of the Russian Federation after the Chernobyl NPP accident, where in 2007 (i.e., 21 years after the accident), the radiation monitoring was conducted within the Russia-Belarus Union State Program. The paper is based on the comparison of data obtained in the settlements and at the nearby landscape sites outside the villages. The ¹³⁷Cs content variability in the most spread in Polesie soils, the podzols, is considered using observations obtained at the monitoring sites in Svyatsk and Demenka. It is shown that ¹³⁷Cs is fixed at the surface, in the upper soil horizons, which is explained by a high soil sorption capacity. Vast crest-sink floodplains with the great contrast range of the hydromorphic features, which cause great variability of the ¹³⁷Cs vertical distribution, are typical for the Polesie landscape; this fact is confirmed by observations obtained at the monitoring sites located in Starye Bobovichi and Ushcherpie. It is shown that Polesie pine forest contamination maintains higher contamination density levels compared to the nearby settlements, pastures, and meadow lands in the fluvial plains. Extrapolation of the contamination density data obtained within the first decade after the accident as of 2007, performed with allowance for the correction for decay and the comparison of these estimates with the new data accumulated in the recent years, does not show any significant contradiction.  相似文献   

Radioactive contamination of the Central Russian Upland and its surroundings 21 years after the Chernobyl NPP accident     

E. V. Kvasnikova  S. K. Gordeev  O. M. Zhukova  S. S. Kirov  S. V. Konstantinov  A. V. Lysak  D. A. Manzon 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2009,34(11):732-740

The Chernobyl NPP accident resulted, due to the western atmospheric transfer, in the formation of a pattern crossing the Central Russian Upland and its surroundings in the latitudinal direction. A volatile long–lived dose-forming radionuclide 137Cs prevailed in the fallout. A peculiar character of the Central Russian Upland division by valleys and balkas could result in a 20–year period in radioactivity displacement down the slop to valleys. This article is devoted to checking the significance of such changes. The issue on revealing the differences between the measured contamination density values 21 years after the depositions and the expected values (calculated with the correction for 137Cs decay) is also under consideration.  相似文献   

The First Version of the Amax (MW , R) Relationship for Kamchatka     

A. A. Gusev  E. I. Gordeev  E. M. Guseva    A. G. Petukhin  V. N. Chebrov 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1997,149(2):299-312

—To estimate for the first time the typical relation between peak acceleration A _max?, moment magnitude M _W and hypocentral distance R for Kamchatka, 101 analog strong motion records for 1969–1993 were employed as the initial data set. Records of acceleration and velocity meters were obtained at 15 rock to medium-ground Kamchatkan sites from 33 earthquakes with M _W = 4.5–7.8, at R = 30–250?km. A _max values were determined from "true" acceleration time histories calculated by spectral deconvolution of digitized records. The maximum value over the two horizontal components was used as the A _max value in the further analysis. With the scarce data available, there were no chances to determine reliably the whole A _max?(M _W ?,?R) average surface; thus the shape of this trend surface was determined on a theoretical basis and only the level was fitted to the data. The theoretical model employed included: (1) source spectrum: according to the Brune's spectral model; (2) point-source attenuation: as 1/R plus loss specified by Q(f) = 250?f ^0.8; (3) finite-source correction for a disc-shaped incoherent source, its size depending on M _W ?; (4) accelerogram duration: including source-dependent and distance-dependent terms; (5) A _max value: based on random process representation. Distance trends calculated with this model agree with the empirical ones of FUKUSHIMA and TANAKA (1990). To calculate the absolute level for these trends, observed A _max?(M _W ?,?R) values were reduced to M _W = 8, R = 100?km using the theoretical trends as reference. The median of the reduced values, A _max?(8,?100), equal to 188?gal. was taken as the absolute reference level for the relation we sought. Note that in the process of data analysis we were forced to entirely reject relatively abundant data of two particular stations because of their prominent local amplification (×5.5) or deamplification (×0.45).  相似文献