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A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability. 相似文献
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Identifying non-stationary groundwater level response to North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns using wavelet coherence 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Ian Paul Holman Monica Rivas-Casado John P. Bloomfield Jason J. Gurdak 《Hydrogeology Journal》2011,19(6):1269-1278
The first comprehensive use of wavelet methods to identify non-stationary time-frequency relations between North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns and groundwater levels is described. Long-term hydrogeological time series from three boreholes within different aquifers across the UK are analysed to identify statistically significant wavelet coherence between the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic pattern, and the Scandinavia pattern and monthly groundwater-level time series. Wavelet coherence measures the cross-correlation of two time series as a function of frequency, and can be interpreted as a correlation coefficient value. Results not only indicate that there are common statistically significant periods of multiannual-to-decadal wavelet coherence between the three teleconnection indices and groundwater levels in each of the boreholes, but they also show that there are periods when groundwater levels at individual boreholes show distinctly different patterns of significant wavelet coherence with respect to the teleconnection indices. The analyses presented demonstrate the value of wavelet methods in identifying the synchronization of groundwater-level dynamics by non-stationary climate variability on time scales that range from interannual to decadal or longer. 相似文献
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Malmgren Katherine A. C. Neves Maria Gurdak Jason J. Costa Luis Monteiro Jos&#; P. 《Hydrogeology Journal》2022,30(3):767-782
Hydrogeology Journal - Aquifers are a fundamental source of freshwater, yet they are particularly vulnerable in coastal regions with Mediterranean type climate, due to both climatic and... 相似文献
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Playas are ephemeral, closed-basin wetlands that are hypothesized as an important source of recharge to the High Plains aquifer in central USA. The ephemeral nature of playas, low regional recharge rates, and a strong reliance on groundwater from the High Plains aquifer has prompted many questions regarding the contribution and quality of recharge from playas to the High Plains aquifer. As a result, there has been considerable scientific debate about the potential for water to infiltrate the relatively impermeable playa floors, travel through the unsaturated zone sediments that are tens of meters thick, and subsequently recharge the High Plains aquifer. This critical review examines previously published studies on the processes that control recharge rates and chemistry beneath playas. Reported recharge rates beneath playas range from less than 1.0 to more than 500 mm/yr and are generally 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than recharge rates beneath interplaya settings. Most studies support the conceptual model that playas are important zones of recharge to the High Plains aquifer and are not strictly evaporative pans. The major findings of this review provide science-based implications for management of playas and groundwater resources of the High Plains aquifer and directions for future research. 相似文献
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Viviana Re Carlos H. Maldaner Jason J. Gurdak Marc Leblanc Tales Carvalho Resende Tibor Y. Stigter 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(3):673-676
Scientific outreach, international networking, collaboration and adequate courses are needed in both developed and developing countries to enable early-career hydrogeologists to promote long-term multidisciplinary approaches to cope with climate-change issues and emphasize the importance of groundwater in a global strategy for adaptation. One such collaboration has involved the Early Career Hydrogeologists’ Network of the International Association of Hydrogeologists (ECHN-IAH) and the UNESCO International Hydrological Programme’s (IHP) Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Climate Changes (GRAPHIC) project. This collaboration seeks to foster the education and involvement of the future generation of water leaders in the debate over groundwater and climate change. 相似文献
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