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1.
Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Mohammad Heidarzadeh Moharram D. Pirooz Nasser H. Zaker Ahmet C. Yalciner Mohammad Mokhtari Asad Esmaeily 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(8-9):774-786
Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524. 相似文献
2.
Landslides - The accurate prediction of landslide tsunami amplitudes has been a challenging task given large uncertainties associated with landslide parameters and often the lack of enough... 相似文献
3.
Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
Mohammad Heidarzadeh Moharram D. Pirooz Nasser H. Zaker Ahmet C. Yalciner 《Natural Hazards》2009,48(2):229-243
We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern
Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the
past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment.
Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The
numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis
each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M
w 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the
MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending
on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern
coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively. 相似文献
4.
We report the statistical and wavelet analyses of the 21 May 2003 tsunami produced by an M w 6.8–6.9 thrust earthquake in the western Mediterranean Sea using 19 tide gauge records. The largest trough-to-crest wave height was 196 cm recorded at the Sant Antoni station in the lee of the incoming tsunami wave. Except at one station, the first wave was not the largest wave at all the analyzed stations, and the largest wave arrived several hours after the first arrival. In addition, the tsunami waves persisted for more than 1 day at most stations. As the spectra of coastal tide gauge stations are strongly influenced by topographic features, special care was taken here while interpreting the results of spectral and wavelet analysis. Our wavelet analysis shows that only a peak at around 23 min is persistent for long duration, and other peaks at 14, 30, 45, and 60 min appeared at short durations. The 23-min signal is possibly associated with the width of the source fault whereas the fault length contributed to the 45-min signal. Based on these dominant periods, the tsunami source dimensions are estimated as 95 km × 45 km. The statistical and wavelet analyses performed here provide some new insights into the characteristics of the tsunami that was generated and propagated in the western Mediterranean basin. 相似文献
5.
A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment is performed for the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean
employing a combination of probability evaluation of offshore earthquake occurrence and numerical modeling of resulting tsunamis.
In our method, we extend the Kijko and Sellevoll’s (1992) probabilistic analysis from earthquakes to tsunamis. The results suggest that the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan,
as well as Muscat, Oman are the most vulnerable areas among those studied. The probability of having tsunami waves exceeding
5 m over a 50-year period in these coasts is estimated as 17.5%. For moderate tsunamis, this probability is estimated as high
as 45%. We recommend the application of this method as a fresh approach for doing probabilistic hazard assessment for tsunamis.
Finally, we emphasize that given the lack of sufficient information on the mechanism of large earthquake generation in the
MSZ, and inadequate data on Makran’s paleo and historical earthquakes, this study can be regarded as the first generation
of PTHA for this region and more studies should be done in the future. 相似文献
6.
Numerous attempts have been made to modify the generalized constitutive model and to introduce new constitutive models in the framework of generalized plasticity. The modified models can predict the behavior of sand fairly well, however, such models require many parameters and are difficult to calibrate. Moreover, it is highly desirable for a model to be able to reproduce soil behavior using a single set of parameters. In this paper, the constitutive model by Pastor and Zienkiewicz is further developed based on critical state and bounding surface models. The model is used to simulate the behavior of three types of sands under monotonic and cyclic loadings. 相似文献
7.
Waveform and Spectral Analyses of the 2011 Japan Tsunami Records on Tide Gauge and DART Stations Across the Pacific Ocean 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We studied the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami through analysis of the sea level records from 21 tide gauge and 16 DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) stations from across the Pacific Ocean. The extreme power of this trans-oceanic tsunami was indicated by the trough-to-crest heights of 3.03 m at Arena Cove on the western coast of the USA and 3.94 m at Coquimbo on the southern coast of Chile. The average value of the maximum amplitude was 163.9 cm for the examined tide gauge records. At many coastal tide gauge stations the largest wave arrived several hours after the first arrival of the tsunami wave, and the tsunami lasted for a long time with an average duration of 4 days. On the contrary, at most of the DART stations in the deep ocean, the first wave was the largest, the tsunami amplitudes were smaller with an average maximum of 51.2 cm, and the durations were shorter with an average of 2 days. The two dominant tsunami periods on the DART records were 37 and 67.4 min, which are possibly attributed to the width and length of the tsunami source fault, respectively. The dimensions of the tsunami source was estimated as 233 km × 424 km. Wavelet analyses of tide gauge and DART records showed that most of the tsunami energy was distributed at the wide period band of around 10–80 min during the first hour after the tsunami arrival, then it was concentrated in a relatively narrower band. The frequency-time plots showed the switches and lapses of tsunami energy at the 35- and 65-min period bands. 相似文献
8.
9.
Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Mohammad Heidarzadeh Moharram D. Pirooz Nasser H. Zaker Costas E. Synolakis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(11-12):2045-2058
We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region. 相似文献
10.
We studied two tsunamis from 2012, one generated by the El Salvador earthquake of 27 August (Mw 7.3) and the other generated by the Philippines earthquake of 31 August (Mw 7.6), using sea level data analysis and numerical modeling. For the El Salvador tsunami, the largest wave height was observed in Baltra, Galapagos Islands (71.1 cm) located about 1,400 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 9 and 19 min. Numerical modeling indicated that most of the tsunami energy was directed towards the Galapagos Islands, explaining the relatively large wave height there. For the Philippines tsunami, the maximum wave height of 30.5 cm was observed at Kushimoto in Japan located about 2,700 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 8, 12 and 29 min. Numerical modeling showed that a significant part of the far-field tsunami energy was directed towards the southern coast of Japan. Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as numerical modeling suggested that the dominant period of the first wave at stations normal to the fault strike is related to the fault width, while the period of the first wave at stations in the direction of fault strike is representative of the fault length. 相似文献