Meteorological droughts can affect large areas and may have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts depend on the severity, duration, and spatial extent of the precipitation deficit and the socioeconomic vulnerability of the affected regions. This paper examines the spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts in the Haihe River basin. Meteorological droughts events were diagnosed using daily meteorological data from 44 stations by calculating a comprehensive drought index (CI) for the period 1961–2011. Based on the daily CI values of each station over the past 50 years, the drought processes at each station were confirmed, and the severity, duration and frequency of each meteorological drought event were computed and analyzed. The results suggest the following conclusions: (1) the use of the CI index can effectively trace the development of drought and can also identify the duration and severity of each drought event; (2) the average drought duration was 57–85 days in each region of the Haihe River basin, and the region with the highest average values of drought duration and drought severity was Bohai Bay; (3) drought occurred more than 48 times over the study period, which is more than 0.95 times per year over the 50 years studied. The average frequencies of non-drought days, severe drought days and extreme drought days over the study period were 51.2, 3.2 and 0.4 %, respectively. Severe drought events mainly occurred in the south branch of the Hai River, and extreme drought events mainly occurred in the Shandong Peninsula and Bohai Bay; (4) the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the Haihe River basin show decreasing trends over the past 50 years. The frequency of severe drought and extreme drought events has increased in the past 20 years than during the period 1961–1990. The results of this study may serve as a reference point for decision regarding basin water resources management, ecological recovery and drought hazard vulnerability analysis.
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He Jun Yang Xiao-Hua Li Jian-Qiang Jin Ju-Liang Wei Yi-Ming Chen Xiao-Juan 《Natural Hazards》2014,75(2):199-217
2.
Spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts based on the daily comprehensive drought index in the Haihe River basin,China 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Jun He Xiao-Hua Yang Jian-Qiang Li Ju-Liang Jin Yi-Ming Wei Xiao-Juan Chen 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):199-217
Meteorological droughts can affect large areas and may have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts depend on the severity, duration, and spatial extent of the precipitation deficit and the socioeconomic vulnerability of the affected regions. This paper examines the spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts in the Haihe River basin. Meteorological droughts events were diagnosed using daily meteorological data from 44 stations by calculating a comprehensive drought index (CI) for the period 1961–2011. Based on the daily CI values of each station over the past 50 years, the drought processes at each station were confirmed, and the severity, duration and frequency of each meteorological drought event were computed and analyzed. The results suggest the following conclusions: (1) the use of the CI index can effectively trace the development of drought and can also identify the duration and severity of each drought event; (2) the average drought duration was 57–85 days in each region of the Haihe River basin, and the region with the highest average values of drought duration and drought severity was Bohai Bay; (3) drought occurred more than 48 times over the study period, which is more than 0.95 times per year over the 50 years studied. The average frequencies of non-drought days, severe drought days and extreme drought days over the study period were 51.2, 3.2 and 0.4 %, respectively. Severe drought events mainly occurred in the south branch of the Hai River, and extreme drought events mainly occurred in the Shandong Peninsula and Bohai Bay; (4) the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the Haihe River basin show decreasing trends over the past 50 years. The frequency of severe drought and extreme drought events has increased in the past 20 years than during the period 1961–1990. The results of this study may serve as a reference point for decision regarding basin water resources management, ecological recovery and drought hazard vulnerability analysis. 相似文献
3.
Risk evaluation of China’s natural disaster systems: an approach based on triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation 总被引：6，自引：6，他引：0
To deal effectively with the evaluation problem of natural disaster risk system affected by many uncertain factors, a multivariate
connection number expression is presented. This expression is based on the index samples and evaluation grade criterions of
natural disaster risk system and is capable of describing the hierarchy property and fuzziness of membership relationship
between index samples and evaluation grade criterions. In this proposed method, the fuzzy evaluation grade criterion problem
is resolved by combining triangular fuzzy numbers with multivariate connection number theory, and triangular fuzzy numbers
are used to express the discrepancy degree coefficients of connection number and evaluation index weights. Accordingly, a
connection number-based evaluation method for the natural disaster system of China (named CN-TFN for short) is established
using triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation. The application results show that the spatial distribution of natural
disaster risk grades of China has the trend of aggrandizement from west to east of China. The economically developed and densely
populated coastal areas are very likely to have a high level of natural disaster risk grade or above; thus, these areas are
the key regions of the natural disaster risk management of China. The results also show that the CN-TFN is able to reflect
practical conditions of the evaluation problem of natural disaster system and to provide more reliability information as compared
to the existing evaluation methods. This is as a result of its comprehensive usage of various information of subjective and
objective uncertainties in the evaluation process of natural disaster risk system and its expression by confidence intervals.
Due to the simplicity and generalization, the CN-TFM is applicable to comprehensive risk grade evaluation of various natural
disaster systems. 相似文献
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基于遗传算法的理想区间法在洪水灾情评价中的应用 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
洪水灾情评价的实质就是建立各洪水灾情评价指标与洪水灾情等级之间的非线性关系,目前在实际评价过程中反映这种关系的信息来源只有洪水灾情评价标准,而后者一般是以区间形式表示的。基于此,提出了基于加速遗传算法的改进理想区间法(AGAIIM)。AGAIIM直接由洪水灾情评价标准样本数据驱动,把利用全部隶属度值信息进行计算的洪水灾情相对等级值作为洪水灾情的评价结果,可避免应用最大隶属度原则进行判断所可能造成的失真,提高了洪水灾情评价的精度。AGAIIM方法直观、简便、通用,可在具有评价标准或具有已知评价指标值及其等级值样本系列的系统综合评价中推广应用。 相似文献
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7.
In recent decades, risk management is significant to mitigate the severe status caused by droughts. As one of the primary components in risk analysis, drought hazard analysis is basic but important. In this paper, the framework of drought risk analysis and the methodology for drought hazard analysis are presented, and Huaibei Plain of China is chosen as the study area. The whole study region is divided into three parts (northern, central, and southern) by geographical factors, and a developed index named drought comprehensive Z index (DCZI) containing hydrological and meteorological factors is employed for drought hazard analysis in each area. By comparison, it implicates that DCZI is applicable for Huaibei Plain and indicates drought extent more objectively. Moreover, the results of drought hazard analysis reflect that the northern area is affected by droughts more seriously. As for the whole region, there is a great probability of severe drought. Finally, some policy recommendations on drought management are also made. 相似文献
8.
9.
Cheng-Guo Wu Yi-Ming Wei Ju-Liang Jin Qiang Huang Yu-Liang Zhou Li Liu 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):179-197
The Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach, in the upper Yellow River, is one of the most serious reaches suffering from ice flood disaster in China. Firstly, according to its characteristics of ice condition evolution and ice disaster, the concept of ice disaster risk of Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach was defined, the risk factors of ice disaster were discussed, and the theory and method of “risk identification–risk estimation–risk assessment–risk management” for the ice disaster risk analysis of Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach was proposed. Then, the comprehensive evaluation model of ice disaster risk was established using the projection pursuit, fuzzy clustering and accelerating genetic algorithm method. Finally, the ice disaster risk grade was formulated, and the ice disaster risk of 1991–2010 for the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach was evaluated in this paper. The results show that the application results were consistent with the practical characteristics of water regime, meteorological and ice condition, revealing the rationality of the risk evaluation model. This study aims at enriching and developing the theory and method for the ice disaster risk analysis and providing scientific decision basis for the ice-prevention preparedness of Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach, in the upper Yellow River. 相似文献
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