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Identifying the role of the two main driving factors—climate change and human interventions—in influencing runoff processes is essential for sustainable water resources management. For this purpose, runoff regime change detection methods were used to divide the available hydroclimatic variables into a baseline and a disturbed period. We applied hydrological modelling and the climate elasticity of runoff method to determine the contribution of climate change and human interventions to changes in runoff. The hydrological model, SWAT, was calibrated during the baseline period and used to simulate the naturalized runoff pattern for the disturbed period. Significant changes in runoff in the study watershed were detected from 1982, suggesting that human interventions play a dominant role in influencing runoff. The combined effects of climate change and human interventions resulted in a 41.3 mm (23.9%) decrease in runoff during the disturbed period, contributing about 40% and 60% to the total runoff change, respectively. Furthermore, analysis of changes in land cover dynamics in the watershed over the past four decades supported these changes in runoff. Contrary to other decades, the discrepancy between naturalized and observed runoff was small in the 2010s, likely due to increased baseflow as a result of storage and/or release of excess water during the dry season. This study contributes to our understanding of how climate change and human interventions affect hydrological responses of watersheds, which is important for future sustainable water management and drought adaptation. 相似文献
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Artur Sobczyk Ryszard K. Borówka Janusz Badura Renata Stachowicz-Rybka Julita Tomkowiak Anna Hrynowiecka Joanna Sławińska Michał Tomczak Mateusz Pitura Mariusz Lamentowicz Piotr Kołaczek Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek Dariusz Tarnawski Marcin Kadej Piotr Moska Marek Krąpiec Krzysztof Stachowicz Bartosz Bieniek Krzysztof Siedlik Małgorzata Bąk Jan van der Made Adam Kotowski Krzysztof Stefaniak 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(4):539-558
The sedimentary succession exposed in the Gorzów Wielkopolski area includes Eemian Interglacial (MIS 5e) or Early Weichselian (MIS 5d–e) deposits. The sedimentary sequence has been the object of intense interdisciplinary study, which has resulted in the identification of at least two palaeolake horizons. Both yielded fossil remains of large mammals, alongside pollen and plant macrofossils. All these proxies have been used to reconstruct the environmental conditions prevailing at the time of deposition, as well as to define the geological context and the biochronological position of the fauna. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of the glaciofluvial layers of the GS3 succession to 123.6 ± 10.1 (below the lower palaeolake) and 72.0 ± 5.2 ka (above the upper palaeolake) indicate that the site formed during the Middle–Late Pleistocene (MIS 6 – MIS 5). Radiocarbon-dating of the lacustrine organic matter revealed a tight cluster of Middle Pleniglacial Period (MIS 3) ages in the range of ~41–32 ka cal bp (Hengelo – Denekamp Interstadials). Holocene organic layers have also been found, with 14C ages within a range of 4330–4280 cal bp (Neolithic). Pollen and plant macrofossil records, together with sedimentological and geochemical data, confirm the dating to the Eemian Interglacial. 相似文献
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