Field reconnaissance and overview of the impact of Hurricane Matthew on Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula     

Tracy L. Kijewski-Correa  Andrew B. Kennedy  Alexandros A. Taflanidis  David O. Prevatt 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(2):627-659

The old potable water network in Byblos city is provided mainly from Ibrahim River nearby. Located in a seismic region, the aging network needs to tolerate seismic threats; thus, damage to the potable water network needs to be assessed. Therefore, first, enhancing infrastructure resilience is briefly discussed, noting briefly the need to bridge specifically between heritage risk management and engineering. Second, Byblos potable water network, seismicity, and geology are detailed. Third, the potable water network damage assessment methodology is presented. It encompasses hazard assessment, network inventory, damage functions, and model development. Data and maps are prepared using the Geographic Information System and then modeled in Ergo platform to obtain the damage to buried pipelines in the event of likely earthquake scenarios. Ergo is updated to consider recommended ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the Middle East region, to consider amplification of the peak ground velocity in hazard maps due to different soil types, and to consider adequate fragility functions. Moreover, different Byblos geotechnical maps, landslide hazard, and liquefaction are investigated and embedded. Damage results to pipelines are dependent on the hazard maps obtained using different GMPEs and geotechnical maps. Asbestos cement pipelines will be most damaged, followed by polyethylene and then by ductile iron. Finally, recommendations are offered to consider an improved sustainable rehabilitation solution. The study provides a better understanding of Byblos potable water network and allows the establishment of a sustainable and resilience-to-earthquake preparedness strategy and recovery plan.  相似文献   

The Haitian housing dilemma: can sustainability and hazard-resilience be achieved?     

Tracy Kijewski-Correa  Alexandros A. Taflanidis 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2012,10(3):765-771

The present danger in the Haitian rebuilding efforts, outside of the extreme level of need that often encourages temporary solutions at the expense of long-term capacity building, centers on the assumption that sustainability and resilience are mutually exclusive. They cannot be if this rare opportunity to achieve meaningful long-term change within a country that has suffered for far too long is to be fully seized. This change can be realized only with appropriate policies and incentives that do not simply fund the re-implementation of vulnerable construction modes in an effort to meet immediate needs, but that foster the introduction of alternative structural systems with the requirement that they build genuine local capacity to deliver sustainable and resilient homes that meet Haiti’s cultural and economic constraints. This short communication reviews the important housing dilemma Haiti now faces, a dilemma with international extensions since researchers and construction firms from all over the world (including France, Germany, Italy, Greece, Japan, Canada, US) are involved, and presents thoughts for the importance of offering solutions that serve both ends of the economic spectrum, are hazard-resilient and truly sustainable.  相似文献   

Improvements in storm surge surrogate modeling for synthetic storm parameterization,node condition classification and implementation to small size databases     

Kyprioti  Aikaterini P.  Taflanidis  Alexandros A.  Plumlee  Matthew  Asher  Taylor G.  Spiller  Elaine  Luettich  Richard A.  Blanton  Brian  Kijewski-Correa  Tracy L.  Kennedy  Andrew  Schmied  Lauren 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1349-1386

Surrogate models are becoming increasingly popular for storm surge predictions. Using existing databases of storm simulations, developed typically during regional flood studies, these models provide fast-to-compute, data-driven approximations quantifying the expected storm surge for any new storm (not included in the training database). This paper considers the development of such a surrogate model for Delaware Bay, using a database of 156 simulations driven by synthetic tropical cyclones and offering predictions for a grid that includes close to 300,000 computational nodes within the geographical domain of interest. Kriging (Gaussian Process regression) is adopted as the surrogate modeling technique, and various relevant advancements are established. The appropriate parameterization of the synthetic storm database is examined. For this, instead of the storm features at landfall, the features when the storm is at closest distance to some representative point of the domain of interest are investigated as an alternative parametrization, and are found to produce a better surrogate. For nodes that remained dry for some of the database storms, imputation of the surge using a weighted k nearest neighbor (kNN) interpolation is considered to fill in the missing data. The use of a secondary, classification surrogate model, combining logistic principal component analysis and Kriging, is examined to address instances for which the imputed surge leads to misclassification of the node condition. Finally, concerns related to overfitting for the surrogate model are discussed, stemming from the small size of the available database. These concerns extend to both the calibration of the surrogate model hyper-parameters, as well as to the validation approaches adopted. During this process, the benefits from the use of principal component analysis as a dimensionality reduction technique, and the appropriate transformation and scaling of the surge output are examined in detail.

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