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Following heavy winter storms and sedimentation in 1993,Spartina foliosa (Pacific cordgrass) clones established on a 6.5-ha mudflat in Tijuana Estuary, with over 80 new clones counted by 1997. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) storms in 1993 apparently facilitated the habitat conversion through river flooding, which caused a temporary reduction in soil salinity and delivered large volumes of sediment. Extreme sedimentation likely raised mudflat elevations enough to allowSpartina establishment. We hypothesized that clones, once established, increased sedimentation in a positive feedback loop leading to accelerated habitat conversion. We collected data on elevation,Spartina expansion, and sediment accretion in two consecutive years (1998–1999). The elevation range of the mudflats in 1998 (0.5–0.83 m NGVD) was within the elevation range ofSpartina at this site (0.39–0.83 m NGVD), indicating that remaining mudflats are at elevations suitable for further expansion. Sediment accretion ranged from 4.0–12.7 cm between 1997–1998 (ENSO conditions), but was close to long-term averages (? cm yr?1) in 1998–1999 (nonflood year) indicating how susceptible Tijuana Estuary is to sedimentation from episodic storms. Although accretion rates were similar withinSpartina clones and on bare mudflats over the ENSO winter, clones were typically dome-shaped suggesting higher sediment retention rates within clones. The radial expansion rates of clones (1.31±0.25 m in 1998; 1.12±0.07 m in 1999) approximated the maxima reported for this species and were not related to clone size or vigor. Conditions on the mudflat appear ideal forSpartina growth, masking differences that might otherwise be observed. Given the likelihood of sedimentation-driven habitat conversion in southern California and other Mediterranean-type estuaries, management efforts are needed to address sedimentation issues on a watershed scale. We recommend that wetland restoration projects in southern California include large areas of intertidal mudflat, both to maintain habitat for shorebird feeding and to allow colonization by salt marsh vegetation.  相似文献   
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We discuss the formation of spectral features in the decelerating ejecta of gamma-ray bursts, including the possible effect of inhomogeneities. These should lead to blueshifted and broadened absorption edges and resonant features, especially from H and He. An external neutral ISM could produce detectable H and He, as well as Fe X-ray absorption edges and lines. Hypernova scenarios may be diagnosed by Fe Kα and H Lyα emission lines.  相似文献   
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Southern California's marine areas are heavily contaminated with dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) and polychlorinated-biphenyls (PCBs), and fish consumption advisories (FCAs) have been issued throughout the region. Between 2002 and 2003, the Montrose Angler Survey, a large-scale survey of subsistence anglers, was developed and implemented on site in Orange and Los Angeles counties. This survey was intended to assist natural resource trustees in the development of restoration programs that will address injuries to natural resources and restore lost economic services for anglers, but the data were never fully analyzed. The trustees have shown a clear preference for ecological restoration programs that may take years to improve fishing services. In contrast, this analysis, which includes a random-parameter fishing site choice model, demonstrates that simple, inexpensive programs such as better signage to warn of FCAs and transportation to clean sites have the potential to yield substantial benefits quickly. This paper also focuses on how different ethnic minority groups are affected by FCAs, and determines how best to communicate risk information and change fishing behavior through outreach programs.  相似文献   
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Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change   总被引:7,自引:4,他引:3  
The integrated assessment models (IAMs) that economists use to analyze the expected costs and benefits of climate policies frequently suggest that the “optimal” policy is to go slowly and to do relatively little in the near term to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We trace this finding to the contestable assumptions and limitations of IAMs. For example, they typically discount future impacts from climate change at relatively high rates. This practice may be appropriate for short-term financial decisions but its extension to intergenerational environmental issues rests on several empirically and philosophically controversial hypotheses. IAMs also assign monetary values to the benefits of climate mitigation on the basis of incomplete information and sometimes speculative judgments concerning the monetary worth of human lives and ecosystems, while downplaying scientific uncertainty about the extent of expected damages. In addition, IAMs may exaggerate mitigation costs by failing to reflect the socially determined, path-dependent nature of technical change and ignoring the potential savings from reduced energy utilization and other opportunities for innovation. A better approach to climate policy, drawing on recent research on the economics of uncertainty, would reframe the problem as buying insurance against catastrophic, low-probability events. Policy decisions should be based on a judgment concerning the maximum tolerable increase in temperature and/or carbon dioxide levels given the state of scientific understanding. The appropriate role for economists would then be to determine the least-cost global strategy to achieve that target. While this remains a demanding and complex problem, it is far more tractable and epistemically defensible than the cost-benefit comparisons attempted by most IAMs.  相似文献   
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An 8‐year time series of weekly shoreline data collected at the Gold Coast, Australia, is used to examine the temporal evolution of a beach, focusing on the frequency response of the shoreline to time‐varying wave height and period. Intriguingly, during 2005 the movement of the shoreline at this site changed from a seasonally‐dominated mode (annual cycle) to a storm‐dominated (~monthly) mode. This unexpected observation provides the opportunity to explore the drivers of the observed shoreline response. Utilizing the calibration of an equilibrium shoreline model to explore the time‐scales of underlying beach behavior, the best‐fit frequency response (days?1) is shown to be an order of magnitude higher post‐2004, suggesting that a relatively subtle change in wave forcing can drive a significant change in shoreline response. Analysis of available wave data reveals a statistically significant change in the seasonality of storms, from predominantly occurring at the start of the year pre‐2005 to being relatively consistent throughout the year after this time. The observed change from one mode of shoreline variability to another suggests that beaches can adapt relatively quickly to subtle changes in the intra‐annual distribution of wave energy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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Geomasking is used to provide privacy protection for individual address information while maintaining spatial resolution for mapping purposes. Donut geomasking and other random perturbation geomasking algorithms rely on the assumption of a homogeneously distributed population to calculate displacement distances, leading to possible under-protection of individuals when this condition is not met. Using household data from 2007, we evaluated the performance of donut geomasking in Orange County, North Carolina. We calculated the estimated k-anonymity for every household based on the assumption of uniform household distribution. We then determined the actual k-anonymity by revealing household locations contained in the county E911 database. Census block groups in mixed-use areas with high population distribution heterogeneity were the most likely to have privacy protection below selected criteria. For heterogeneous populations, we suggest tripling the minimum displacement area in the donut to protect privacy with a less than 1% error rate.  相似文献   
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Qinghai Province is an important component of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. Scientific evaluation of the suitability of Qinghai’s climate for tourism can contribute to overcoming obstacles posed by climate on sustainable tourism development in Qinghai Province, including disparities between the low and high seasons, high altitude health concerns, and weather events. A tourism climate suitability evaluation model of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is constructed (Tourism Climate Suitability Index, or TCSI), and tourism climate suitability is comprehensively evaluated for Qinghai Province from climate data from 1960 to 2009. Results show that: (I) There is clear distributional characteristics of spatial-temporal variability of TCSI values in Qinghai Province. (II) Tourism climate suitability in Qinghai Province has significant seasonal and regional differences. The year is divided into a very suitable period (July and August), suitable tourism periods (from April and October), less suitable periods (From Nov to Mar). June to August is the most suitable tourism period in Qinghai. Qinghai Province is divided into five levels of tourism climate suitability: most suitable regions, very suitable regions, suitable regions, less suitable regions, and unsuitable region. (III) The key factor which influences regional differences in tourism climatic suitability is atmospheric oxygen. And the key factors which chiefly influence seasonal differences of tourism climate suitability are temperature and humidity, the wind chill factor, and barrier weather.  相似文献   
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