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Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on China's Agriculture 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper measures the economic impacts of climate change on China's agriculture based on the Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture dominated counties, we find that under most climate change scenarios both higher temperature and more precipitation would have an overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Autumn effect is the most positive, but spring effect is the most negative. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the year 2050 shows that the East, the Central part, the South, the northern part of the Northeast, and the Plateau would benefit from climate change, but the Southwest, the Northwest and the southern part of the Northeast may be negatively affected. In the North, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In summary, all of China would benefit from climate change in most scenarios. 相似文献
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Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Zhan Tian Yinghao Ji Laixiang Sun Xinliang Xu Dongli Fan Honglin Zhong Zhuoran Liang Ficsher Gunther 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(11):1700-1714
Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change. The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security. In this study, based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in 2011–2040 (2020s), 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s), we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981–2010 and the future climatology of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The key modelling tool – the AEZ model – was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin. Our simulations revealed that: (1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time; (2) in the middle of this century (2050s), total rapeseed production would increase significantly; (3) the average production potential increase in the 2050s for the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939, 1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively; (4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi, central and eastern Hubei, northern Hunan, central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu. 相似文献
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Ke Qian Yin Jiangshan Bricker Jeremy D. Savage Nicholas Buonomo Erasmo Ye Qinghua Visser Paul Dong Guangtao Wang Shuai Tian Zhan Sun Laixiang Toumi Ralf Jonkman Sebastiaan N. 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(1):671-703
Natural Hazards - Climate change leads to sea level rise worldwide, as well as increases in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs). Storm surge induced by TC’s, together with... 相似文献
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Günther Fischer Tatiana Ermolieva Yuri Ermoliev Laixiang Sun 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):441-450
In this paper we show that explicit treatment of risks and uncertainties in agricultural production planning may considerably
alter strategies for achieving robust outcomes with regard to sustainable agricultural developments. We discuss production
planning models under uncertainties and risks that may assist in planning location-specific production expansion within environmental
and health risk indicators and constraints. The proposed approaches are illustrated with the example of spatially explicit
livestock production allocation in China to 2030. 相似文献
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