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Dealing with drought: The challenge of using water system technologies to break dryland poverty traps 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
We explore strategies among farmers in semi-arid Tanzania to cope with drought, and investigate if access to a local supplemental irrigation system (the Ndiva system) can improve coping capacity. Results show high dependency on local ecosystem services when harvests fail, and indicate that farmers commonly exhaust asset holdings during droughts. Ndiva access did not have any direct effects on coping capacity, but seemed to have some indirect effects. Drawing on our findings we discuss the complexity of escaping persistent dryland poverty, and outline the circumstances under which small-scale water system technologies, such as Ndiva irrigation, may help. 相似文献
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Paolella Luca Spacagna Rose Line Chiaro Gabriele Modoni Giuseppe 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2021,19(10):3933-3961
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - The quantitative assessment of natural risks offers a rational strategy to protect communities, undertake cost effective mitigation and plan the organic and... 相似文献
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Spatial models for probabilistic prediction of wind power with application to annual-average and high temporal resolution data 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Amanda?LenziEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile Pierre?Pinson Line?H.?Clemmensen Gilles?Guillot 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1615-1631
Producing accurate spatial predictions for wind power generation together with a quantification of uncertainties is required to plan and design optimal networks of wind farms. Toward this aim, we propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation, and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We demonstrate the proposed methods on wind farm data from Western Denmark, and compare the results to those obtained with standard geostatistical methods. The results show that our method makes it possible to obtain fast and accurate predictions from posterior marginals for wind power generation. The proposed method is applicable in scientific areas as diverse as climatology, environmental sciences, earth sciences and epidemiology. 相似文献
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A general method is presented for analyzing how climatic conditions affect plant disease severity. An example of its application is given for the analysis of stripe rust (caused by Puccinia striiformis) data on winter wheat cultivar Gaines and climatic data collected at Pullman, WA. for 1968–1986. A computer program WINDOW was written to identify the climatic factors most highly correlated with disease. This program is designed to utilize meteorological data for an entire growing season of a crop as well as to include climatic conditions preceding planting. This program uses an iterative process to examine variable-length segments of meteorological data in a more exhaustive analysis than previously possible. Climatic factors considered include: mean maximum, minimum, and average temperature; total and frequency of precipitation; consecutive days with and without precipitation; accumulation of negative and positive degree days; and number of days with extreme temperature events. Variables that were highly correlated with disease were the basis for regression models that were developed to predict disease severity index for each of the three cultivars. Two- and three-variable models explained, respectively, 75 and 76% of the variation in disease from year to year. Predictions (which could be made early enough in the growing season to allow application of chemical control) were evaluated on the basis of whether years with severe disease were accurately predicted. Models were validated using Allen's PRESS statistic and by application to new data. The method is potentially applicable to studies of how climatic conditions affect the populations or productivity of other types of organisms.This research was supported by a National Science Foundation Grant (ATM 85-03115), Climate Dynamics Program, Division of Atmospheric Sciences. 相似文献
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Lina H. Line Reidar Müller Tore G. Klausen Jens Jahren Helge Hellevang 《Basin Research》2020,32(6):1463-1484
A general shift towards higher mineralogical and textural maturity changes the reservoir character across the Triassic–Jurassic transition in the southwestern Barents Sea basin (SWBSB), largely affecting the hydrocarbon prospectivity in the region. Petrographic and geochronological provenance data presented in this paper suggest that the shift from mineralogically immature to mature sandstones initiated during the deposition of the Norian–Rhaetian Fruholmen Formation, and varies with basin location. Strong contrasts between the Fruholmen Formation and underlying formations are associated with proximity to the rejuvenated Caledonian and Fennoscandian hinterlands and are mainly restricted to the southern basin margins. In the basin interior, subtle petrographic variations between the Fruholmen Formation and older Triassic sandstones reflect a distal position relative to the southern hinterland. The long-lived misconception of a regional compositional contrast in the Arctic at the turn of the Norian can be attributed to higher sampling frequency associated with hydrocarbon exploration activity along the southern basin margins, and masking by increased annual precipitation and subsequent reworking during the Jurassic. Geothermal signatures and rearrangement of ferric clay material across the Carnian–Norian transition support a recycled origin for the Fruholmen Formation in the basin interior. As the closest tectonically active region at the time, the Novaya Zemlya fold-and-thrust belt represents the best provenance candidate for polycyclic components in Norian–Rhaetian strata. In addition to recycling in the hinterland during the Late Triassic, local erosion of exposed intrabasinal highs and platforms at the Triassic–Jurassic transition represents a second process where thermodynamically unstable mineral components originally sourced from the Uralides may be removed. Textural and mineralogical modification may also have occurred in marginal-marine depositional environments during periods with elevated sea level. Mature sediment supply from the rejuvenated hinterland in the south, multiple cycles of reworking and gradual accumulation of polycyclic grains have likely led to the extreme compositional maturity registered in the Tubåen, Nordmela and Stø formations in the SWBSB. It is likely that increased annual precipitation since the latest Carnian had an amplifying effect on sandstone maturation across the Triassic–Jurassic boundary, but we consider the effect to be inferior compared to provenance shifts and reworking. Findings from this study are important for understanding compositional and textural maturity enhancement processes in siliciclastic sedimentary basins. 相似文献
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Baris Anna Spacagna Rose Line Paolella Luca Koseki Junichi Modoni Giuseppe 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2021,19(10):3963-3986
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - The damage on supply and drainage water networks is a serious cause of economic disruption for urban systems affected by earthquakes. Among various concerns,... 相似文献
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