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1.
Predictive Power Evaluation of a Physically Based Model for Shallow Landslides in the Area of Oltrepò Pavese,Northern Italy 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Roberto Valentino Claudia Meisina Lorella Montrasio Gian Luca Losi Davide Zizioli 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2014,32(4):783-805
The use of real-time landslide early warning systems is attracting the attention of the scientific community, since it allows to assess “where” and “when” a shallow rainfall-induced landslide might occur by coupling rainfall amounts, hydrological models and slope-stability analysis. The paper deals with the main results of a back analysis, which refers to the application of a physically based stability model [Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP)] on regional scale. The analysis concerns the occurrence of some recent rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the municipal territory of Broni, in the area of Oltrepò Pavese (Northern Italy). The study area is a hilly region 2.4 km2 wide, where more than 40 % of the territory has slopes steeper than 15° and altitudes are between 90 and 250 m a.s.l. As regards the geologic setting, clayey-silty shallow colluvial deposits, with a maximum thickness of about 3 m, overlap a bedrock made of clayey shales, calcareous flysch and marls. The SLIP model is based on the limit equilibrium method applied to an infinite slope and on the Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion for the soil. By assuming that the main hydro-geotechnical process that leads to failure is the saturation of parts of the soil, the model allows to take into account the condition of partial saturation of the soil. The safety factor (F S ) of a slope is also function of previous rainfalls. After the implementation of the model at territory scale, the input data have been introduced through a geographic information systems platform. In the current paper we mainly intend to evaluate the performance of SLIP at catchment scale, by comparison to (1) observed landslide events and (2) another well-established physically based model (TRIGRS). Further, we want to assess the suitability of the model as early warning tool. The results produced by the model are analyzed both in terms of safety factor maps, corresponding to some particular rainfall events, and in terms of the time-varying percentage of unstable areas over a 2-year span period. The paper shows the comparison between observed landslide localizations and model predictions. A quantitative comparison between the SLIP model and TRIGRS is presented, only for the most important event that occurred during the analyzed period. Overall, the results of the stability analyses based on observed rainfalls show the capability of the SLIP model to predict, in real-time and on a wide area, the occurrence of the analyzed phenomena. 相似文献
2.
Michael D. Audley † Fumiaki Nagase Kazuhisa Mitsuda Lorella Angelini Richard L. Kelley 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,367(3):1147-1154
We report on two ASCA observations of the high-mass X-ray binary pulsar OAO 1657−415. A short observation near mid-eclipse caught the source in a low-intensity state, with a weak continuum and iron emission dominated by the 6.4-keV fluorescent line. A later, longer observation found the source in a high-intensity state and covered the uneclipsed through mid-eclipse phases. In the high-intensity state, the non-eclipse spectrum has an absorbed continuum component due to scattering by material near the pulsar and 80 per cent of the fluorescent iron emission comes from less than 19 light-second away from the pulsar. We find a dust-scattered X-ray halo whose intensity decays through the eclipse. We use this halo to estimate the distance to the source as 7.1 ± 1.3 kpc. 相似文献
3.
Rainfall-induced shallow landslides: a model for the triggering mechanism of some case studies in Northern Italy 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
The article relates the main findings of a recent investigation aimed at modeling the triggering of shallow landslides. A
simplified model for assessing the safety factor of potentially unstable slopes, directly related with rainfall trends, was
developed. Based on the geometric characteristics of the slope, the geotechnical properties, and strength parameters of the
soil, the model makes it possible to define a safety factor of a slope as a function of time. The model is based on the limit
equilibrium method and takes into account the seepage of underground water. The safety factor is, in turn, related to the
seasonal rainfall. The model was applied on a local scale to some historical cases which had occurred recently in Northern
Italy. The paper shows how the results of the application of the model on a local scale achieve a good agreement between the
instability condition and the real date of each considered event. 相似文献
4.
Lorella Montrasio Roberto Valentino Angela Corina Lauro Rossi Roberto Rudari 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):1263-1290
In the last decades, physically based distributed models turned out rather promising to achieve the space–time assessment of shallow landslides at large spatial scale. This technical note deals with the application of a physically based stability model named Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP), which has been adopted by the Department of National Civil Protection of Italy as a prototype early warning system for rainfall-induced shallow landslides on national scale. The model is used as a main methodology to create space–time shallow landslide susceptibility maps based on a simple deterministic slope-stability approach, combined with high-resolution rainfall information and geographic information system-based geospatial datasets. The safety factor as an index to measure slope instability is modeled as function of topographic, geologic, geotechnical and hydrologic variables. Although the main aim of this work was to prove the operational viability of such model on a nationwide domain and some simplification are adopted at this stage, hind cast tests on some relevant case histories of shallow landslides occurred between October 2009 and October 2011 showed that the model has skill in representing both timing and location of those shallow landslides. 相似文献
5.
Lorella Francalanci Riccardo Avanzinelli Isabella Nardini Massimo Tiepolo Jon P. Davidson Riccardo Vannucci 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2012,163(1):109-131
In situ Sr-isotope data by microdrilling, coupled with major and trace element analyses, have been performed on plagioclase
and clinopyroxene from seven samples collected during the 2002–2003 eruptive crisis at Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Islands,
Italy). On 28 December 2002, the persistent moderate explosive activity was broken by an effusive event lasting about 7 months.
A more violent explosion (paroxysm) occurred on 5 April 2003. Two magma types were erupted, namely a volatile-poor and highly
porphyritic magma (HP-magma) poured out as scoria or lava and a volatile-rich, phenocryst-poor magma (LP-magma) found as pumice.
LP-magma differs from the HP-magma also for its slightly less-evolved chemistry, the groundmass composition and the lower
Sr-isotope ratios. Micro-Sr-isotope data show the presence of zoned minerals in strong isotope disequilibrium, as previously
found in products erupted in 1984, 1985 and 1996 AD, with 87Sr/86Sr values generally decreasing from cores to rims of minerals. Only some outer rims testify for equilibrium with the host
groundmass. The internal mineral zones with high Sr-isotope ratios (0.70665–0.70618) are interpreted as ‘antecrysts’, crystallised
during the previous activity and recycled in the present-day system since the opening shoshonitic activity of the Recent Period,
which occurred at about 2.5 ka ago. This result has implications for the dynamics of the present-day plumbing system of Stromboli
at intermediate pressure (about 2–3 km depth) and allows us to propose a model whereby an HP-magma reservoir is directly interconnected
at the bottom with a cumulate crystal much reservoir. Efficient mixing between residing HP- and input LP-magmas can occur
in this reservoir, due to more similar rheological characteristics of the two magmas than in the conduit, where crystallisation
is enhanced by degassing. Antecrysts (and possibly melts) re-enter in the HP-magma reservoir both from the bottom, recycled
by ascending LP-magmas crossing the crystal mush, and from the top, recycled by descending degassed and dense HP-magma, residual
of the periodic Strombolian explosions at the surface. The isotope variation measured in the groundmasses allows calculating
the proportion of the LP-magma entering the shallow HP-magma reservoir at ~20%. From this proportion, we estimate that the
total volume of LP-magma input during 2002–2003 closely matches the magma volume erupted in the effusive event, suggesting
a steady-state system at broadly constant volume. The comparison with estimates of the LP-magma volume ejected by the paroxysm
indicates that the LP-magma amount directly reaching the surface during the 5 April paroxysm is minimal with respect to that
entering the system. 相似文献
6.
The present paper reports the results of a detailed stratigraphical, petrological and geochemical investigation on the island of Stromboli, Aeolian arc, Southern Tyrrhenian sea. Major and trace element data determined on a large quantity of samples from well-established stratigraphic positions indicate that the magmatological evolution of the island through time was more complex than previously known. The activity of the exposed part of Stromboli, which occurred over a time span of about 100 000 years, started with the emission of high-K calc-alkaline (HKCA) volcanics, which were covered by calc-alkaline (CA), shoshonitic (SHO), high-K calc-alkaline (HKCA) and potassic (KS) products. The most recent activity consists of HKCA lavas and the present-day SHO-basaltic volcanics emitted by mildly explosive “strombolian” activity. Most of the products are lavas, with minor amounts of pyroclastic rocks emplaced mainly during the early stages of activity. The transition from the SHO to the KS cycle was associated with the collapse of the upper part of the volcanic apparatus; the transition from KS to the present-day SHO activity has been found to have occurred at the time of the sliding of the western portion of the volcano that generated the “Sciara del Fuoco” depression. The rock series cropping out at Stromboli show variable enrichment in potassium, incompatible trace elements and radiogenic Sr which increase from CA through HKCA, and SHO up to KS rocks. Major, trace element and Sr-isotopic data agree in indicating that the HKCA and SHO series evolved by crystal/liquid fractionation starting from different parental liquids, whereas crustal assimilation appears to have been the leading process during the evolution of KS volcanics. Mixing processes also played a role although they can be well documented only when they occurred between magmas with different isotopic and geochemical characteristics. Geochemical modelling based on trace element and isotopic data indicates that the mafic magmas of the different volcanic series may be generated by melting of an upper mantle heterogeneously enriched in incompatible elements and radiogenic Sr by addition, via subduction, of different amounts of crustal material. Geochemical data, however, are also in agreement with the alternative hypothesis that the most mafic magmas of the different series have been generated by combined processes of fractional crystallization, assimilation and mixing of a CA magma in a deep-sited magma chamber; the mafic magmas formed by these complex processes were successively emplaced in a shallow reservoir where they evolved by simple fractional crystallization (HKCA and SHO series) and by assimilation of crustal material (KS). The occurrence of changes in the geochemical signatures of the magmas at the time of the structural modification of the volcano is believed to favour the hypothesis that the variable composition observed in the volcanic rocks of Stromboli is the result of processes occurring within the volcanic system. 相似文献
7.
In-situ cosmogenic 3He exposure ages of pyroxene phenocrysts from basalts from the Upper Neostromboli formation in southwest Stromboli date its eruption at 7.0 ± 0.3 ka (1σ, n = 3, Ginostra site) and 6.8 ± 0.2 ka (1σ, n = 10, Timpone del Fuoco site) respectively. Correlation of our new data to previous K/Ar and palaeomagnetic ages from the northwestern Neostromboli phase suggests that it erupted within a confined period between roughly 6 and 14 ka. The low uncertainty on the 3Hecos ages as well as on individual exposure ages (4.4–8.7%) demonstrates that 3Hecos exposure dating is a viable tool for dating Holocene basalt lavas. The ages compare favourably to uncertainties obtained for radiocarbon dating of similar rocks. 相似文献
8.
Eleonora?BraschiEmail author Lorella?Francalanci Simone?Tommasini George?E.?Vougioukalakis 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(3):988
This contribution reports a detailed study on in situ Sr isotope analyses, along with textural and compositional characteristics, of plagioclase phenocrysts occurring in the rhyodacitic dome-lavas and associated mafic enclaves, erupted during the last magmatic activity at Nisyros volcano (Greece). Dome-lavas and enclaves have a paragenesis dominated by plagioclase. We recognize five different types of plagioclase based on their specific textures and composition. Dome-lava plagioclases (Type-1) are mainly large (1–5 mm), subhedral, clear, and poorly zoned crystals with low An content (An25–35). The plagioclase phenocrysts (Type-4 and Type-5) and groundmass microlites crystallizing in the enclaves, and found in dome-lavas as xenocrysts, have high An content (An75–95). In both dome-lavas and enclaves, two other types of plagioclase do also occur: (1) plagioclase phenocrysts with size and core composition similar to those of Type-1 having a dusty sieve zone (DSZ) at the rims (Type-2); (2) plagioclases with a DSZ affecting the entire crystal but a thin rim (Type-3). The drilled plagioclases have 87Sr/86Sr negatively correlated with their An content. Low An cores of Type-1 and Type-2 have quite homogeneous 87Sr/86Sr (0.7044–0.7046), whose values are more radiogenic than their host magmas (0.70403–0.70408) and similar to those of the previous Upper Pumice (UP) rhyolite magma (0.70438–0.70456). The DSZs of Type-2 and Type-3 show lower and scattered 87Sr/86Sr (0.70397–0.70426) with intermediate and variable An content. High An cores of Type-4 and Type-5 have the least radiogenic Sr isotope composition (0.70379) in equilibrium with that measured in the enclaves (0.70384–0.70389). We demonstrate that Type-1 plagioclase crystallizes in the previous UP rhyolitic magmas representing the silica-rich magma from which the dome-lava melts derived by open system evolutionary processes (e.g., mixing, mingling, and crystal migration), caused by successive refilling of mafic enclave-forming magma. The Type-2 plagioclase derives from entrainment of Type-1 into the still molten enclave magma. The DSZs originated in response to the interaction between the low An plagioclase and the enclave mafic melt in which dissolution and re-crystallization acted together as function of the interaction time. Type-1 and Type-2 plagioclases record, therefore, a long-lived timescale of events starting from their crystallization in the UP rhyolite. Instead, the different width of DSZs (Type-2 and Type-3) seems to indicate short different interaction timescales between the single crystals and the enclave melt (from few hours to some 40 days). These microanalytical data contribute to the understanding of the origin of the rhyodacitic dome-lavas at Nisyros volcano and to set robust constraints on the dynamics of mingling/mixing processes in terms of crystal exchange pathways and enclave disaggregation. 相似文献
9.
Experimental analysis and modelling of shallow landslides 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
The paper presents the results of some experimental tests reproducing the triggering mechanism of a special kind of shallow
landslides induced by rainfalls (soil slip) in a physical 1-g model. The experimental data have been employed to verify the
capability of a simplified stability model to describe the phenomenon and to back-analyse its occurrence in a case history
(Pizzo d’Alvano, Campania Region 1998). The method enables a direct correlation between the safety factor of a slope and rainfall
intensity, as well as antecedent rainfalls. 相似文献
10.
Tommasini Simone; Heumann Arnd; Avanzinelli Riccardo; Francalanci Lorella 《Journal of Petrology》2007,48(12):2407-2430
The subaerial part of the Stromboli stratovolcano was builtup in the last 100 kyr through six periods of activity; theerupted magmas record the largest compositional variation ofall the Aeolian arc volcanoes (calc-alkaline, shoshonitic, andpotassic alkaline magma series). The trace element characteristicsof the less evolved magmas of each period of activity are coherentlycorrelated with their radiogenic isotope (Sr, Nd, Pb) composition,and are typical of volcanic arc rocks. In terms of U-seriesisotopes, samples from the different magma series have both238U and 230Th excesses, and this distinctive feature providesadditional constraints on source enrichment processes withinthe mantle wedge and on the mechanism of partial melting. Overallthe complete set of data demonstrates that the genesis of thedifferent magma series at Stromboli can be accommodated in amantle source that experienced two distinct enrichment processesby different parts of the subducting oceanic crust of the Ionianslab. The first was caused by supercritical liquids originatingfrom the basaltic and sedimentary parts of the subducting slabat >5 GPa and 900°C. The second was induced by aqueousfluids, again originating from the basaltic and sedimentaryparts of the slab, released from a shallower part of the subductedIonian slab (< 5 GPa and 800°C). U–Th disequilibriaconstrain the timing of the first metasomatic event (Stage I:supercritical liquids) at >435 ka, whereas the second event(Stage II: aqueous fluids) occurred at 100 ka. The high-angledip of the Ionian slab (70°) caused the superimpositionof the metasomatizing agents of the two enrichment processesin the same volume of the mantle wedge, explaining the occurrenceof such different magma series in a single volcanic edifice.The U–Th disequilibria provide evidence for dynamic meltingof the metasomatized mantle wedge combined with an ageing effectresulting from the restoration of secular equilibrium afterthe perturbation caused by the U-rich aqueous fluids of StageII. The trace element and radiogenic isotope (U, Th, Sr, Nd,Pb) signature of the mantle source of the magmas at Stromboliis thus dependent upon the amount of supercritical liquids andaqueous fluids released by the two components of the subductedslab, whereas the distinctive 238U and 230Th excesses of themagmas result from a combination of mantle ageing and time-dependentdynamic melting. The geochemical and radiogenic isotope signatureof the mantle source beneath Stromboli places important constraintson the isotopic polarity from Southern Latium to the Aeolianarc attributed to the effect of a HIMU mantle component followingeither lateral inflow of foreland mantle material or upwellingof a mantle plume in the centre of the Tyrrhenian basin. Ourgeochemical model demonstrates that the high 206Pb/204Pb ofthe putative ‘HIMU’ mantle component could be equallyformed during metasomatism of the pre-existing mantle wedgeby either the supercritical liquid (Stage I) or aqueous fluid(Stage II) released by the subducted altered basalt of the Ionianplate. KEY WORDS: radiogenic isotopes; U–Th disequilibria; mantle metasomatism; supercritical liquid; aqueous fluid; Stromboli 相似文献