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1.
The carrying capacity for bivalve shellfish culture in Saldanha Bay, South Africa, was analysed through the application of the well-tested EcoWin ecological model, in order to simulate key ecosystem variables. The model was set up using: (i) oceanographic and water-quality data collected from Saldanha Bay, and (ii) culture-practice information provided by local shellfish farmers. EcoWin successfully reproduced key ecological processes, simulating an annual mean phytoplankton biomass of 7.5 µg Chl a l–1 and an annual harvested shellfish biomass of about 3 000 tonnes (t) y–1, in good agreement with reported yield. The maximum annual carrying capacity of Small Bay was estimated as 20 000 t live weight (LW) of oysters Crassostrea gigas, or alternatively 5 100 t LW of mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis, and for Big Bay as 100 000 t LW of oysters. Two production scenarios were investigated for Small Bay: a production of 4 000 t LW y–1 of mussels, and the most profitable scenario for oysters of 19 700 t LW y–1. The main conclusions of this work are: (i) in 2015–2016, both Small Bay and Big Bay were below their maximum production capacity; (ii) the current production of shellfish potentially removes 85% of the human nitrogen inputs; (iii) a maximum-production scenario in both Big Bay and Small Bay would result in phytoplankton depletion in the farmed area; (iv) increasing the production intensity in Big Bay would probably impact the existing cultures in Small Bay; and (v) the production in Small Bay could be increased, resulting in higher income for farmers.  相似文献   
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Brown tides and mariculture in Saldanha Bay, South Africa.   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
In 1997, the brown tide organism, Aureococcus anophageffens, was detected for the first time in Saldanha Bay, South Africa. Its presence was limited to an isolated, tidal dam that was similarly impacted during the late summer of the following two years but not in 2000. Bloom concentrations are typically of the order of 10(-9) cells l-1. This is one of the few reported occurrences of these nuisance blooms outside the north-eastern United States. A small oyster grow-out facility based in the dam has been severely affected by the reduced growth of oysters during these blooms. Reduced flushing of this culture site is a possible explanation for bloom initiation and persistence. However, Aureococcus blooms can be considerably more extensive as was evident during 1998 when the whole of the bay system, including Langebaan Lagoon, was affected for 6-8 weeks during late summer.  相似文献   
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We compared total mercury (THg) concentrations in the fur of northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) from the depleted Pribilof Islands population with those of both declining and thriving populations of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) from Prince William Sound (PWS) and Southeast Alaska (SEA), respectively. Relatively low wet weight concentrations (ranges) of THg were detected in the fur of Steller sea lion (SSL) pups (0.90-3.14 microg/g) and juveniles (0.56-6.75 microg/g) from both areas in 1998 and 2000 compared to northern fur seal (NFS) pups (3.15-8.14 microg/g) in 2000. The mean concentration +/- SD for SSLs sampled were 1.46 +/- 0.64 microg/g for pups (n = 22) and 2.74 +/- 2.89 microg/g for juveniles (n = 6). Analyses indicated higher THg concentrations from SSL pups from PWS compared to the SEA. Mean +/- SD. THg in the NFS pups was 4.90 +/- 1.42 microg/g (n = 34) and for post-partum dams was 7.84 +/- 1.78 microg/g (n = 12).  相似文献   
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The efficacy of ocean colour remote sensing in assessing the variability of phytoplankton biomass within Saldanha Bay is examined. Satellite estimates of chlorophyll a (Chl a) were obtained using the maximum peak-height (MPH) algorithm on full-resolution (300?m) data from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS). Subsurface Chl a maxima often occur within Saldanha Bay below the mean detection depth of the satellite (1.5?m) during periods of thermal stratification. Consequently, the MPH product was poorly correlated to in situ data from 4?m depth (r2 and average relative percentage difference [RPD] of 0.094 and 53% respectively); however, the coefficient of determination was much improved if limited to in situ data collected under conditions of mixing (r2 and RPD of 0.869 and 89%, respectively). Composites of monthly MPH Chl a data reveal mean concentrations consistent with in situ seasonal trends of phytoplankton biomass, confirming the capability of the MPH algorithm to qualitatively resolve surface Chl a distribution within the bay.  相似文献   
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The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latest version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for integrated assessment modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In most cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.  相似文献   
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Ultrasonically tagged flounders were tracked in the estuary of the River Bann, Northern Ireland, for periods of between 2 and 12 h (11 fish for a total of 92 h and 2·5 km), during their summer residence. Positions were determined by triangulation with two receivers.All fish remained within 400 m of the release point; on average flounders moved about 270 m during one tidal cycle, equivalent to 830 body lengths, or just over 1 body length per minute. Movements were most likely at dusk, but other parameters were not contingent upon time of day, although no data were gathered at dawn. Frequency, direction, distance, speed and duration of movement and turn rate were all significantly contingent upon state of the tide. The movement data are interpreted in terms of feeding behaviour, supported by results from other parts of the study. At high tide flounders made active but meandering searches for food on the inundated mudflats. Similar but faster searches heading downstream on falling tides reflected (a) completion of feeding while littoral invertebrates were still available and (b) avoidance of stranding. Flounders made infrequent but long and linear passages downstream at low tide, when they tended to bury themselves at the edge of the main channel where there was little food. Subsequently, the fish followed the rising tide upstream so that the cycle of movements kept most fish in the same area of the estuary in the short term. It is suggested that tolerance of changing salinities enables flounders, more than other flatfish species, to exploit dense populations of estuarine intertidal invertebrates as food.  相似文献   
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Energy is a key requirement for a healthy, productive life and a major driver of the emissions leading to an increasingly warm planet. The implications of a doubling and redoubling of per capita incomes over the remainder of this century for energy use are a critical input into understanding the magnitude of the carbon management problem. A substantial controversy about how the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) measured income and the potential implications of how income was measured for long term levels of energy use is revisited again in the McKibbin, Pearce and Stegman article appearing elsewhere in this issue. The recent release of a new set of purchasing power estimates of national income, and the preparations for creating new scenarios to support the IPCC’s fifth assessment highlight the importance of the issues which have arisen surrounding income and energy use. Comparing the 1993 and 2005 ICP results on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) based measures of income reveals that not only do the 2005 ICP estimates share the same issue of common growth rates for real income as measured by PPP and US $, but the lack of coherence in the estimates of PPP incomes, especially for developing countries raises yet another obstacle to resolving the best way to measure income. Further, the common use of an income term to mediate energy demand (as in the Kaya identity) obscures an underlying reality about per capita energy demands, leading to unreasonable estimates of the impact of changing income measures and of the recent high GDP growth rates in India and China. Significant new research is required to create both a reasonable set of GDP growth rates and long term levels of energy use.  相似文献   
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